DRV

Derive · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

109

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

43.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4419

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0528

actual +0.3184

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.40159	0.363945	-9.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.349354	-9.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.361487	-9.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.361809	-9.28%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.346135	-9.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.363701	-9.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.347588	-10.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.368103	-10.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.374828	-9.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.404598	-10.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.391269	-11.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.439323	-11.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.475021	-11.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.453885	-12.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.383482	-12.20%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.328108	-12.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.356261	-12.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.358689	-12.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.363156	-12.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.334058	-13.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.344351	-13.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.343721	-13.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.338759	-13.10%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.331987	-13.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.321863	-12.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.381236	-12.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.361744	-12.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.390133	-12.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.399858	-11.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.427919	-11.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.385031	-11.75%	0.40159	-7.96%	0.0745	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.35781	-11.50%	0.386075	-4.51%	0.1415	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.345054	-11.87%	0.398745	+1.85%	0.1111	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.386757	-13.38%	0.39882	-10.68%	0.0195	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.263538	-10.72%	0.38187	+29.36%	0.3496	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.229016	-10.22%	0.403015	+57.99%	0.4728	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.217852	-10.92%	0.387205	+58.32%	0.4770	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.13019	-5.01%	0.41127	+200.09%	1.0375	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.136069	-3.49%	0.416385	+195.34%	1.0599	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.13758	-4.17%	0.450845	+214.05%	1.0764	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.144799	-3.42%	0.4408	+194.02%	1.0348	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.144994	-2.36%	0.49633	+234.22%	1.1197	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.144019	-2.50%	0.538615	+264.66%	1.2098	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.152212	-1.22%	0.515775	+234.71%	1.1484	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.161265	-1.63%	0.436745	+166.42%	0.9413	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.156274	-0.78%	0.373545	+137.17%	0.8000	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.166507	+0.83%	0.407595	+146.82%	0.8078	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.175046	+1.63%	0.41208	+139.25%	0.7572	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.152884	+2.17%	0.41695	+178.64%	0.8832	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.163556	+3.15%	0.38453	+142.51%	0.7949	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.144258	+0.38%	0.39644	+175.86%	0.8765	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.143852	+0.71%	0.395175	+176.66%	0.8716	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.154909	+0.75%	0.38983	+153.54%	0.8455	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.156463	+0.09%	0.381685	+144.17%	0.7982	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.172197	+0.17%	0.36952	+114.96%	0.6936	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.16989	+0.27%	0.43524	+156.87%	0.8524	✓	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.178174	+0.95%	0.412955	+133.98%	0.7868	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.167312	+0.24%	0.44425	+166.15%	0.9108	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.148851	+0.55%	0.45364	+206.43%	1.0393	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.160572	-1.98%	0.48606	+196.71%	1.0398	✗	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.131455	+0.28%	0.436315	+232.84%	1.1015	✓	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.116258	+2.57%	0.4043	+256.71%	1.1387	✓	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.121728	+2.40%	0.391515	+229.34%	1.1360	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.099154	+0.69%	0.446505	+353.42%	1.4344	✓	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.095663	-3.07%	0.29519	+199.11%	1.0148	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.088605	-5.21%	0.25509	+172.90%	0.9378	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.09052	-5.48%	0.24457	+155.39%	0.8730	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.095997	-7.26%	0.13705	+32.40%	0.2021	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.087583	-5.80%	0.140985	+51.64%	0.2957	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.087344	-5.82%	0.14356	+54.80%	0.3307	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.089452	-5.82%	0.14992	+57.84%	0.3520	✗	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.092509	-6.22%	0.148505	+50.55%	0.3087	✗	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.091784	-5.99%	0.147705	+51.28%	0.3200	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.088264	-5.46%	0.154095	+65.05%	0.3861	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.091666	-5.57%	0.16393	+68.88%	0.4236	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.092022	-5.48%	0.1575	+61.77%	0.3736	✗	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.091762	-5.29%	0.16514	+70.45%	0.4107	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.092191	-5.74%	0.17224	+76.11%	0.4432	✗	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.095101	-5.72%	0.14964	+48.34%	0.2783	✗	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.095768	-5.81%	0.15856	+55.96%	0.3037	✗	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.091503	-5.82%	0.14371	+47.91%	0.2881	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.093628	-6.09%	0.14284	+43.27%	0.2581	✗	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.098606	-6.76%	0.153755	+45.39%	0.2486	✗	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.107649	-7.74%	0.15632	+33.97%	0.1870	✗	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.089256	-5.62%	0.1719	+81.76%	0.4401	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.091265	-5.60%	0.16944	+75.26%	0.3894	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.096987	-5.98%	0.17649	+71.08%	0.3306	✗	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.099522	-5.97%	0.166915	+57.71%	0.2631	✗	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.107955	-5.78%	0.14804	+29.21%	0.1097	✗	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.106844	-6.01%	0.163815	+44.11%	0.1937	✗	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.108276	-5.83%	0.13109	+14.01%	0.0292	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.112267	-5.75%	0.11334	-4.85%	0.1813	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.114985	-5.44%	0.11888	-2.23%	0.1568	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.113951	-4.99%	0.098475	-17.90%	0.2505	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.116664	-5.70%	0.09869	-20.23%	0.2392	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.116082	-5.68%	0.093475	-24.05%	0.2166	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.119041	-5.60%	0.095765	-24.06%	0.2117	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.121979	-6.12%	0.10351	-20.33%	0.1436	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.126707	-6.34%	0.092975	-31.27%	0.2947	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.136489	-6.42%	0.09274	-36.41%	0.3535	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.143885	-7.29%	0.09498	-38.80%	0.3860	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.110067	-5.84%	0.09864	-15.62%	0.1224	✓	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.115942	-5.99%	0.097635	-20.83%	0.1697	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.116358	-6.18%	0.093365	-24.72%	0.2216	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.110961	-5.74%	0.09707	-17.54%	0.1411	✓	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.107585	-5.93%	0.09736	-14.87%	0.1174	✓	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.102705	-5.82%	0.096885	-11.16%	0.0843	✓	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.104343	-5.61%	0.097805	-11.52%	0.0738	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.107003	-5.85%	0.100875	-11.24%	0.0646	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.10548	-5.97%	0.10167	-9.37%	0.0412	✓	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.101552	-5.68%	0.09716	-9.76%	0.0477	✓	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.103546	-6.13%	0.0997	-9.62%	0.0474	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.104654	-6.65%	0.105755	-5.66%	0.0032	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.100145	-6.69%	0.116685	+8.73%	0.1232	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.104794	-7.76%	0.094575	-16.75%	0.1835	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.098362	-6.92%	0.09668	-8.52%	0.0723	✓	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.09438	-7.17%	0.10316	+1.47%	0.0253	✓	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.082002	-6.09%	0.105835	+21.20%	0.2001	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.078065	-5.90%	0.114575	+38.11%	0.2984	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.078089	-5.96%	0.113675	+36.89%	0.3014	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.077993	-5.78%	0.11498	+38.91%	0.3386	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.081307	-5.63%	0.119115	+38.25%	0.3442	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.082517	-5.45%	0.121595	+39.32%	0.3548	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.085606	-5.71%	0.11994	+32.10%	0.2867	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.092461	-6.16%	0.123715	+25.55%	0.2759	✗	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.089347	-6.08%	0.12307	+29.37%	0.3014	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.08831	-6.12%	0.1261	+34.05%	0.3262	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.091846	-6.20%	0.129925	+32.68%	0.3554	✗	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.094093	-6.31%	0.135285	+34.71%	0.3916	✗	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.095355	-6.52%	0.145845	+42.99%	0.4488	✗	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.094172	-6.64%	0.1552	+53.86%	0.5106	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.093785	-6.93%	0.116895	+16.00%	0.2544	✗	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.094693	-7.32%	0.12333	+20.71%	0.2610	✗	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.096215	-7.79%	0.12402	+18.86%	0.2506	✗	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.091138	-7.57%	0.11772	+19.39%	0.2132	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.096242	-8.39%	0.11437	+8.86%	0.1487	✗	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.100924	-9.40%	0.10905	-2.10%	0.0906	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.094426	-8.90%	0.11054	+6.65%	0.1572	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.084152	-8.06%	0.11365	+24.17%	0.2500	✗	1.00