BTW
Bitway · Ethereum · beta_5y
- token id
- #40
- symbol
- BTW
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3a63de3572c69a1307ff08394f3ee7702c16d25d
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-24
- predictions
- 153
Track record at +1d
assessed
50
of 51 predictions shown
direction hit
38.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1117
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0085
actual +0.0273
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | live | 1.6621 | 1.6476 | -0.87% | – | pending | – | – | -1.63 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 2.1044 | 2.0806 | -1.13% | 1.6621 | +1.20% | 0.0267 | ✗ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 2.0432 | 2.0224 | -1.02% | 2.1044 | +3.00% | 0.0354 | ✗ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 1.9664 | 1.9504 | -0.82% | 2.0432 | +3.91% | 0.0666 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 2.4152 | 2.3837 | -1.30% | 1.9664 | -18.58% | 0.1956 | ✓ | -1.54 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 2.4383 | 2.3885 | -2.04% | 2.4152 | -0.95% | 0.0228 | ✗ | -1.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 1.9279 | 1.903 | -1.29% | 2.4383 | +26.48% | 0.2456 | ✗ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 1.8166 | 1.8025 | -0.77% | 1.9279 | +6.12% | 0.0558 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 2.3803 | 2.3334 | -1.97% | 1.8166 | -23.68% | 0.2408 | ✓ | -1.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 2.0884 | 2.0455 | -2.05% | 2.3803 | +13.98% | 0.1269 | ✗ | -1.32 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 1.7495 | 1.7248 | -1.42% | 2.0884 | +19.36% | 0.2155 | ✗ | -1.47 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 1.6258 | 1.6062 | -1.20% | 1.7495 | +7.61% | 0.0514 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 1.5842 | 1.5674 | -1.06% | 1.6258 | +2.62% | 0.0500 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 1.5753 | 1.5553 | -1.26% | 1.5842 | +0.57% | 0.0248 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 1.3928 | 1.3799 | -0.93% | 1.5753 | +13.10% | 0.1482 | ✗ | -1.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 1.2975 | 1.2866 | -0.84% | 1.3928 | +7.34% | 0.0505 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 1.2135 | 1.2046 | -0.73% | 1.2975 | +6.93% | 0.0341 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 1.2336 | 1.2233 | -0.84% | 1.2135 | -1.63% | 0.0117 | ✓ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 1.2458 | 1.2328 | -1.04% | 1.2336 | -0.98% | 0.0130 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 1.0377 | 1.0305 | -0.70% | 1.2458 | +20.05% | 0.2263 | ✗ | -1.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 1.3815 | 1.3696 | -0.86% | 1.0377 | -24.89% | 0.2726 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 1.4183 | 1.4053 | -0.92% | 1.3815 | -2.59% | 0.0243 | ✓ | -1.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 1.329 | 1.3179 | -0.83% | 1.4183 | +6.72% | 0.1015 | ✗ | -1.83 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 1.3887 | 1.3716 | -1.24% | 1.329 | -4.31% | 0.0334 | ✓ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 1.1192 | 1.1101 | -0.81% | 1.3887 | +24.08% | 0.2280 | ✗ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 1.2207 | 1.2086 | -0.99% | 1.1192 | -8.31% | 0.1006 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 1.0015 | 0.996355 | -0.52% | 1.2207 | +21.88% | 0.2041 | ✗ | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 1.3154 | 1.2895 | -1.97% | 1.0015 | -23.86% | 0.2453 | ✓ | -1.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.9544 | 0.948145 | -0.66% | 1.3154 | +37.82% | 0.3210 | ✗ | -1.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 1.0378 | 1.0252 | -1.21% | 0.9544 | -8.04% | 0.0714 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.8978 | 0.891717 | -0.68% | 1.0378 | +15.59% | 0.1730 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.8007 | 0.794699 | -0.75% | 0.8978 | +12.13% | 0.1266 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.74705 | 0.736898 | -1.36% | 0.8007 | +7.18% | 0.0182 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.5903 | 0.586945 | -0.57% | 0.74705 | +26.55% | 0.2421 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.6302 | 0.627061 | -0.50% | 0.5903 | -6.33% | 0.0648 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.7199 | 0.714953 | -0.69% | 0.6302 | -12.46% | 0.1838 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.7502 | 0.742974 | -0.96% | 0.7199 | -4.04% | 0.0342 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.70505 | 0.697407 | -1.08% | 0.7502 | +6.40% | 0.0656 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.5826 | 0.579781 | -0.48% | 0.70505 | +21.02% | 0.2293 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.73445 | 0.718888 | -2.12% | 0.5826 | -20.68% | 0.2280 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.5503 | 0.546759 | -0.64% | 0.73445 | +33.46% | 0.3011 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.5088 | 0.506888 | -0.38% | 0.5503 | +8.16% | 0.0815 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.50005 | 0.4969 | -0.63% | 0.5088 | +1.75% | 0.0149 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.4511 | 0.451328 | +0.05% | 0.50005 | +10.85% | 0.1251 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.43775 | 0.438869 | +0.26% | 0.4511 | +3.05% | 0.0296 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.45105 | 0.452089 | +0.23% | 0.43775 | -2.95% | 0.0241 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.4474 | 0.44912 | +0.38% | 0.45105 | +0.82% | 0.0199 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.4522 | 0.453836 | +0.36% | 0.4474 | -1.06% | 0.0206 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.45655 | 0.457877 | +0.29% | 0.4522 | -0.95% | 0.0144 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.4544 | 0.455232 | +0.18% | 0.45655 | +0.47% | 0.0226 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.4896 | 0.487188 | -0.49% | 0.4544 | -7.19% | 0.1196 | ✓ | 1.00 |