AVL

Avalon · Ethereum · beta_5y

token id: #696
symbol: AVL
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x5c8d0c48810fd37a0a824d074ee290e64f7a8fa2
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-27
predictions: 144

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 48 predictions shown

direction hit

61.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0400

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0051

actual -0.0022

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.021245	0.021136	-0.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.17
2026-10-21	oos	0.019479	0.019417	-0.32%	0.021245	-0.54%	0.0048	✓	1.13
2026-10-20	oos	0.019693	0.019628	-0.33%	0.019479	-1.08%	0.0043	✓	1.13
2026-10-19	oos	0.020678	0.02054	-0.67%	0.019693	-4.77%	0.0578	✓	1.17
2026-10-18	oos	0.019445	0.019369	-0.39%	0.020678	+6.34%	0.0679	✗	1.18
2026-10-17	oos	0.020546	0.020453	-0.45%	0.019445	-5.36%	0.0597	✓	1.20
2026-10-16	oos	0.022173	0.021946	-1.03%	0.020546	-7.34%	0.0641	✓	1.19
2026-10-15	oos	0.020543	0.020315	-1.11%	0.022173	+7.93%	0.0970	✗	1.23
2026-10-14	oos	0.018647	0.018602	-0.24%	0.020543	+10.17%	0.0911	✗	1.20
2026-10-13	oos	0.019376	0.019319	-0.29%	0.018647	-3.76%	0.0132	✓	1.19
2026-10-12	oos	0.018817	0.018778	-0.21%	0.019376	+2.97%	0.0119	✗	1.17
2026-10-11	oos	0.020663	0.020572	-0.44%	0.018817	-8.93%	0.0636	✓	1.09
2026-10-10	oos	0.022471	0.022253	-0.97%	0.020663	-8.05%	0.0846	✓	1.14
2026-10-09	oos	0.019944	0.019877	-0.34%	0.022471	+12.67%	0.1177	✗	1.11
2026-10-08	oos	0.019933	0.019875	-0.29%	0.019944	+0.05%	0.0081	✓	1.11
2026-10-07	oos	0.022334	0.022221	-0.51%	0.019933	-10.75%	0.0893	✓	1.01
2026-10-06	oos	0.02175	0.02165	-0.46%	0.022334	+2.68%	0.0610	✗	1.11
2026-10-05	oos	0.022515	0.022399	-0.52%	0.02175	-3.40%	0.0267	✓	1.11
2026-10-04	oos	0.022884	0.02276	-0.54%	0.022515	-1.61%	0.0011	✓	1.11
2026-10-03	oos	0.022833	0.022701	-0.58%	0.022884	+0.22%	0.0152	✓	1.13
2026-10-02	oos	0.022786	0.022659	-0.56%	0.022833	+0.21%	0.0045	✓	1.13
2026-10-01	oos	0.022953	0.022825	-0.56%	0.022786	-0.73%	0.0028	✓	1.13
2026-09-30	oos	0.023642	0.023492	-0.64%	0.022953	-2.92%	0.0411	✓	1.17
2026-09-29	oos	0.022532	0.022408	-0.55%	0.023642	+4.93%	0.0548	✗	1.17
2026-09-28	oos	0.021848	0.021737	-0.51%	0.022532	+3.13%	0.0334	✗	1.17
2026-09-27	oos	0.024924	0.02474	-0.74%	0.021848	-12.34%	0.1115	✓	1.07
2026-09-26	oos	0.025513	0.025302	-0.83%	0.024924	-2.31%	0.0156	✓	1.07
2026-09-25	oos	0.024789	0.024594	-0.79%	0.025513	+2.92%	0.0328	✗	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.024097	0.023918	-0.74%	0.024789	+2.87%	0.0393	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.023279	0.023121	-0.68%	0.024097	+3.51%	0.0413	✗	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.024603	0.024403	-0.81%	0.023279	-5.38%	0.0258	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.023323	0.023148	-0.75%	0.024603	+5.49%	0.0656	✗	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.021137	0.021002	-0.64%	0.023323	+10.34%	0.0400	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.021371	0.021228	-0.67%	0.021137	-1.09%	0.0034	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.0216	0.02144	-0.74%	0.021371	-1.06%	0.0077	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.020413	0.020305	-0.53%	0.0216	+5.81%	0.0043	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.020576	0.020465	-0.54%	0.020413	-0.79%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.021305	0.02116	-0.68%	0.020576	-3.42%	0.0354	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.020442	0.020336	-0.52%	0.021305	+4.22%	0.0802	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.020262	0.02014	-0.61%	0.020442	+0.89%	0.0029	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.021569	0.021299	-1.25%	0.020262	-6.06%	0.0439	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.020448	0.020315	-0.65%	0.021569	+5.48%	0.0592	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.018637	0.018626	-0.06%	0.020448	+9.71%	0.0845	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.02012	0.020095	-0.13%	0.018637	-7.37%	0.0527	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.020503	0.020498	-0.02%	0.02012	-1.87%	0.0165	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.020774	0.020798	+0.11%	0.020503	-1.30%	0.0061	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.020602	0.02067	+0.33%	0.020774	+0.83%	0.0207	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.020591	0.020669	+0.38%	0.020602	+0.05%	0.0096	✗	1.00