ASTEROID1

? · · beta_5y

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +7d

assessed

165

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

62.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2405

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0349

actual -0.0908

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001486	-3.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001484	-4.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001225	-2.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001227	-2.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001121	-2.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001195	-2.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001235	-3.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001215	-3.44%	0.001541	+22.50%	0.1951	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.00106	-2.18%	0.001549	+42.96%	0.3296	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001115	-2.56%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1245	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001103	-2.09%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1336	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001326	-2.96%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1115	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001316	-3.03%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0367	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001201	-2.35%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0823	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001319	-2.64%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0559	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001406	-2.75%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2261	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001519	-2.89%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2357	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.00158	-3.17%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2570	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001585	-3.19%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.0896	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001635	-3.70%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1471	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001688	-4.06%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2743	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001808	-4.25%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2224	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001789	-4.55%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2069	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001717	-4.52%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1314	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001627	-4.42%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0427	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001816	-4.65%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1461	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001889	-4.76%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1132	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001919	-4.90%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.0958	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002131	-5.62%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1307	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001836	-5.05%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0378	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002036	-5.68%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.0705	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001655	-5.10%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0954	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001457	-2.84%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1957	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001706	-4.53%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0821	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001749	-4.46%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0721	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001586	-1.17%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1797	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.00167	-1.28%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0275	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001671	-0.32%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0534	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001787	-0.85%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1758	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001883	-1.03%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3118	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001833	+0.28%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1038	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001952	-0.22%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1357	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002031	-0.46%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2316	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002159	-1.24%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.1999	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002208	-1.40%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2050	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002267	-1.77%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2074	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002475	-2.80%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1739	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002419	-2.65%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2171	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002902	-4.06%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3342	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002965	-4.64%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2578	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002268	-2.50%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0598	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002318	-2.70%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0593	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002555	-2.99%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1134	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002833	-3.86%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1645	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002467	-3.52%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0284	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002022	-3.75%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3621	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002234	-3.66%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.3098	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002077	-4.09%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1499	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001845	-4.74%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2798	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002175	-4.19%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1994	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002261	-4.19%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2662	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002528	-4.26%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0127	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002477	-4.06%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1546	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002871	-5.94%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4204	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002177	-4.89%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2411	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001867	-4.24%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2921	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001898	-4.45%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1570	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001796	-4.11%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0748	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001871	-4.28%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0145	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.00199	-4.65%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.0991	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001859	-4.17%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2626	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002096	-5.20%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0623	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.00193	-4.99%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0196	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001679	-4.11%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1529	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001643	-4.30%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1840	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001526	-3.96%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2967	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001539	-3.86%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3497	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002011	-5.10%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0147	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001898	-5.01%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1821	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002188	-8.16%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0621	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001304	-3.84%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2849	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001304	-3.66%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2451	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001511	-3.92%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0019	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001606	-4.16%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0534	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001623	-4.28%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2768	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001673	-4.22%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1608	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001728	-4.15%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3162	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001972	-5.02%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3692	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001936	-4.83%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3149	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002166	-5.97%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2820	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002137	-7.67%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2155	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001418	-4.31%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1871	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001307	-3.90%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3465	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001468	-5.36%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2733	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001158	-3.37%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6186	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001183	-3.28%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5271	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001297	-3.83%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5858	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001356	-4.76%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5303	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001016	-2.39%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3485	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001022	-2.29%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2548	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001126	-2.74%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2859	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001033	-1.24%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0851	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001179	-2.17%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0178	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001286	-2.78%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0270	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001128	-1.36%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2375	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001091	-0.14%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0594	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001025	+2.16%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0270	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001151	+1.05%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0243	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001384	-0.56%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2493	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001454	-0.52%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1909	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001529	-0.50%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1573	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001825	-1.60%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.4987	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001561	+0.38%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3859	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001807	-0.46%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6365	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001819	+0.07%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5714	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002198	-1.26%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5278	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002245	-1.26%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5066	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002448	-1.72%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5244	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002483	-1.76%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3387	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002287	-1.04%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4183	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002551	-1.32%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3226	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002677	-1.33%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3158	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003056	-1.67%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2581	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003214	-1.75%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2847	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003581	-2.25%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2974	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003719	-2.49%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3314	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004321	-4.17%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5693	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003826	-3.06%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3218	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003653	-2.83%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2354	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.00383	-3.61%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1616	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003452	-2.81%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0058	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003462	-2.93%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0606	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003249	-2.60%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1614	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004053	-5.80%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1202	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002865	-1.92%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.3001	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002714	-1.36%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2998	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003289	-3.25%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1777	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002676	-1.22%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2752	✗	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002549	+0.50%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3388	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002761	+0.02%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1910	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003371	-2.05%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2416	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003769	-2.71%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2812	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.0038	-2.86%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3747	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004107	-3.55%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3870	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004452	-4.06%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8171	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004854	-4.43%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0621	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.00529	-5.00%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0327	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005065	-4.93%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6799	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005683	-6.71%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7225	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004232	-4.89%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2538	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004769	-6.30%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2578	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003952	-4.84%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.2057	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004181	-5.20%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2329	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003894	-4.06%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3854	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003655	-3.19%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4304	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003767	-3.07%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5224	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004122	-3.66%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0890	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004922	-4.70%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0295	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005148	-4.93%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2092	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005322	-5.13%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1692	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005335	-5.20%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2266	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005769	-5.47%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3795	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005656	-5.64%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3522	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005917	-6.03%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2770	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.00557	-5.78%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0152	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004748	-5.34%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1915	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005717	-5.57%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0133	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005995	-5.78%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0490	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007629	-8.45%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2366	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006108	-7.40%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0079	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004171	-4.25%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4170	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004106	-4.10%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3414	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.