ASTEROID1

? · · beta_5y

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

76.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4455

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1044

actual -0.3448

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.001541	0.001408	-8.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001273	-7.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001177	-6.44%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001177	-6.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001078	-6.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001141	-7.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001174	-8.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001154	-8.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001006	-7.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001061	-7.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001047	-7.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.00127	-7.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001257	-7.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001144	-7.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001254	-7.38%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001341	-7.21%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001452	-7.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001506	-7.71%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001511	-7.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001543	-9.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001584	-9.93%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001693	-10.32%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.00167	-10.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001601	-10.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001516	-10.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001691	-11.21%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001754	-11.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001778	-11.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.001974	-12.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001703	-11.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.001906	-11.68%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.1712	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001551	-11.06%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.0371	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001334	-11.04%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.0978	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001567	-12.29%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.2291	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001606	-12.30%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.3604	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001445	-9.96%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.2722	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001521	-10.12%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.2903	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001519	-9.35%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3168	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.00162	-10.13%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.4650	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001709	-10.17%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5219	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001657	-9.38%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.4737	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001769	-9.54%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.3829	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001848	-9.45%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4348	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.001974	-9.69%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.5568	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002023	-9.67%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.4782	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002085	-9.66%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.4635	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002274	-10.70%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.4979	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.00222	-10.65%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4455	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002656	-12.17%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6412	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002738	-11.94%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.5590	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002083	-10.46%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3323	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002137	-10.29%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.2940	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002362	-10.31%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3385	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002627	-10.85%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5052	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002303	-9.94%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4156	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001883	-10.39%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1300	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002097	-9.58%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1413	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.001942	-10.34%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.0658	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001713	-11.57%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.1547	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.00203	-10.57%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.1466	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002109	-10.65%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1372	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002357	-10.72%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.4873	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002322	-10.05%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.4944	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002656	-12.97%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6293	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002025	-11.53%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.3782	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001733	-11.13%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3578	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001758	-11.47%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3140	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001663	-11.20%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.2945	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.00173	-11.51%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3122	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001836	-12.02%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.2915	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.00172	-11.32%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2660	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001929	-12.76%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3194	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001788	-11.98%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1806	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001562	-10.78%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0102	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001527	-11.07%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0621	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001418	-10.76%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1589	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.00143	-10.66%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2544	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001846	-12.88%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0526	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001744	-12.73%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2200	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002008	-15.69%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0789	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001216	-10.30%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3699	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001218	-10.04%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3906	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001408	-10.46%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2785	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001494	-10.88%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3511	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001507	-11.14%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2490	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001554	-11.03%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0056	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001604	-11.05%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0358	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001814	-12.61%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1327	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001782	-12.41%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1899	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001978	-14.15%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1873	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001968	-15.01%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0879	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001329	-10.35%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.4144	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001227	-9.77%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4604	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001377	-11.19%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6416	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001093	-8.73%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6495	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001117	-8.63%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5568	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001222	-9.40%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4928	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001279	-10.15%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.4062	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000958556	-7.92%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7300	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000963631	-7.87%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.8130	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001063	-8.24%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6377	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000980316	-6.28%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7885	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001116	-7.38%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.6029	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001216	-8.08%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3617	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001066	-6.85%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4623	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001033	-5.48%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3958	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000971196	-3.17%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4489	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001104	-3.11%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6350	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.00134	-3.71%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3887	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001412	-3.42%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5147	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001488	-3.18%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.0998	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001777	-4.23%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.2909	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001523	-2.07%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0099	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001765	-2.77%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1118	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001781	-2.05%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1804	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002142	-3.75%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2732	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002185	-3.93%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2743	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.00237	-4.85%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2026	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002404	-4.85%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2654	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002223	-3.81%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0462	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002483	-3.93%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1223	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002608	-3.88%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6045	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002964	-4.63%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8107	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003107	-5.01%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7453	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003433	-6.28%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0673	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.00355	-6.91%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0842	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004066	-9.83%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1359	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003634	-7.94%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9258	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003476	-7.52%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1677	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003625	-8.79%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2112	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003286	-7.48%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0293	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003286	-7.85%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1012	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003091	-7.33%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9460	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003796	-11.79%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0581	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002734	-6.41%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.8893	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002592	-5.79%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8736	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003096	-8.94%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1241	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002538	-6.30%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8014	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002427	-4.29%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5534	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002626	-4.86%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.5839	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003178	-7.68%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7336	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003534	-8.78%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6598	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003557	-9.07%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.8816	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003827	-10.13%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0254	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00413	-10.99%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3082	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004483	-11.73%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1374	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004862	-12.69%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.1957	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004644	-12.84%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0462	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.0052	-14.64%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2095	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.003859	-13.29%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8376	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004352	-14.50%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9479	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003574	-13.95%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.0696	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003789	-14.08%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0170	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003525	-13.16%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.1018	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003287	-12.92%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2967	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003405	-12.38%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.3128	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003757	-12.17%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3819	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.00452	-12.48%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0416	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004725	-12.74%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.0635	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.00488	-13.01%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0412	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.004887	-13.17%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1341	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005295	-13.24%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.1654	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.00516	-13.91%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2148	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005408	-14.11%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0075	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005125	-13.31%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.2771	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004338	-13.51%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.1682	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005213	-13.90%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.1812	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005445	-14.43%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.4616	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.00688	-17.45%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7243	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005648	-14.37%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4276	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.003799	-12.79%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.1388	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003735	-12.76%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2572	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.