ASTEROID1

? · · beta_5y

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +1d

assessed

171

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

59.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0986

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0067

actual -0.0113

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	live	0.001541	0.001528	-0.87%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001365	-0.68%	0.001541	-0.52%	0.0020	✓	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001251	-0.57%	0.001374	+9.18%	0.0980	✗	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001255	-0.64%	0.001259	-0.36%	0.0182	✓	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001144	-0.41%	0.001263	+9.97%	0.1027	✗	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001223	-0.55%	0.001148	-6.59%	0.0757	✓	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001268	-0.67%	0.001229	-3.68%	0.0283	✓	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001249	-0.74%	0.001277	+1.47%	0.0350	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001081	-0.27%	0.001258	+16.11%	0.1406	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.00114	-0.39%	0.001084	-5.29%	0.0196	✓	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001124	-0.23%	0.001144	+1.55%	0.0099	✓	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001358	-0.63%	0.001126	-17.56%	0.1493	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001348	-0.64%	0.001367	+0.70%	0.0020	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001226	-0.33%	0.001357	+10.33%	0.0941	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001349	-0.43%	0.00123	-9.19%	0.1094	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001439	-0.48%	0.001355	-6.30%	0.0285	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001555	-0.55%	0.001445	-7.58%	0.0290	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001621	-0.62%	0.001564	-4.14%	0.0319	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001628	-0.60%	0.001631	-0.37%	0.0179	✗	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001687	-0.67%	0.001638	-3.56%	0.0666	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001746	-0.75%	0.001698	-3.47%	0.0328	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001872	-0.85%	0.001759	-6.83%	0.0552	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001857	-0.92%	0.001888	+0.75%	0.0111	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001783	-0.84%	0.001874	+4.23%	0.0515	✗	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.00169	-0.70%	0.001798	+5.64%	0.0583	✗	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001889	-0.86%	0.001702	-10.66%	0.0829	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001965	-0.88%	0.001905	-3.93%	0.0322	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002	-0.90%	0.001983	-1.73%	0.0153	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002228	-1.34%	0.002018	-10.63%	0.0928	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001915	-0.98%	0.002258	+16.75%	0.1645	✗	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002126	-1.53%	0.001934	-10.40%	0.0563	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001725	-1.09%	0.002158	+23.77%	0.2326	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001497	-0.18%	0.001744	+16.27%	0.0353	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001774	-0.75%	0.0015	-16.06%	0.1660	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001816	-0.80%	0.001787	-2.40%	0.0243	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001606	+0.08%	0.001831	+14.08%	0.0311	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001692	+0.03%	0.001605	-5.14%	0.0576	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.00168	+0.23%	0.001692	+0.95%	0.0042	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001805	+0.12%	0.001676	-7.02%	0.0241	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001903	+0.01%	0.001803	-5.28%	0.0814	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001834	+0.30%	0.001903	+4.10%	0.0466	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001959	+0.16%	0.001828	-6.54%	0.0703	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002042	+0.06%	0.001956	-4.14%	0.0567	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002183	-0.16%	0.002041	-6.66%	0.0317	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002235	-0.21%	0.002186	-2.39%	0.0181	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002301	-0.31%	0.00224	-2.97%	0.0116	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002532	-0.56%	0.002308	-9.35%	0.0617	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002473	-0.48%	0.002546	+2.48%	0.0171	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002997	-0.91%	0.002485	-17.85%	0.1913	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003068	-1.34%	0.003024	-2.73%	0.0240	✗	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002315	-0.48%	0.003109	+33.68%	0.2035	✗	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.00237	-0.50%	0.002326	-2.35%	0.0166	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002617	-0.63%	0.002382	-9.57%	0.0683	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002915	-1.09%	0.002634	-10.62%	0.1208	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002532	-0.98%	0.002947	+15.25%	0.1646	✗	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002085	-0.76%	0.002557	+21.70%	0.1953	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002298	-0.90%	0.002101	-9.40%	0.0374	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002147	-0.90%	0.002319	+7.06%	0.0510	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001921	-0.83%	0.002166	+11.82%	0.1094	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002251	-0.83%	0.001937	-14.67%	0.1417	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002341	-0.81%	0.00227	-3.81%	0.0555	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002616	-0.92%	0.00236	-10.61%	0.1168	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002559	-0.88%	0.00264	+2.25%	0.0574	✗	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.003001	-1.68%	0.002582	-15.40%	0.3036	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002263	-1.15%	0.003052	+33.33%	0.2055	✗	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001934	-0.83%	0.002289	+17.38%	0.0517	✗	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001968	-0.91%	0.00195	-1.81%	0.0144	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001859	-0.76%	0.001986	+6.03%	0.0240	✗	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001939	-0.81%	0.001873	-4.19%	0.0300	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002066	-0.99%	0.001955	-6.32%	0.0565	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001925	-0.78%	0.002087	+7.58%	0.0927	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002184	-1.23%	0.00194	-12.26%	0.1187	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.002006	-1.24%	0.002211	+8.86%	0.1006	✗	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001736	-0.86%	0.002031	+15.99%	0.1672	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001702	-0.89%	0.001751	+1.98%	0.0531	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001578	-0.69%	0.001717	+8.06%	0.0860	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001591	-0.62%	0.001589	-0.75%	0.0017	✓	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002096	-1.11%	0.001601	-24.45%	0.2848	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001977	-1.05%	0.002119	+6.06%	0.0776	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002317	-2.74%	0.001998	-16.12%	0.1609	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001347	-0.66%	0.002382	+75.66%	0.5571	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001346	-0.58%	0.001356	+0.15%	0.0080	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001562	-0.73%	0.001354	-13.92%	0.1606	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001662	-0.82%	0.001573	-6.15%	0.0537	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001682	-0.80%	0.001676	-1.18%	0.0401	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001733	-0.81%	0.001696	-2.92%	0.0408	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001789	-0.76%	0.001747	-3.11%	0.0250	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002054	-1.08%	0.001803	-13.15%	0.1336	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.002014	-0.96%	0.002076	+2.06%	0.0681	✗	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002271	-1.44%	0.002034	-11.72%	0.1356	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002257	-2.52%	0.002304	-0.48%	0.0161	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001468	-0.95%	0.002315	+56.21%	0.4797	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.00135	-0.74%	0.001482	+8.97%	0.1197	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001528	-1.48%	0.00136	-12.31%	0.1058	✓	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001191	-0.58%	0.001551	+29.47%	0.2350	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001216	-0.56%	0.001198	-2.04%	0.0271	✓	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001338	-0.80%	0.001223	-9.34%	0.0875	✓	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001406	-1.29%	0.001349	-5.27%	0.0622	✓	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001038	-0.29%	0.001424	+36.79%	0.3133	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001044	-0.23%	0.001041	-0.48%	0.0192	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001153	-0.40%	0.001046	-9.67%	0.0915	✓	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001046	-0.03%	0.001158	+10.71%	0.0437	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001202	-0.27%	0.001046	-13.20%	0.1086	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001316	-0.50%	0.001205	-8.92%	0.0878	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001143	-0.06%	0.001323	+15.65%	0.1533	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001095	+0.21%	0.001144	+4.67%	0.0243	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.00101	+0.67%	0.001093	+8.97%	0.0610	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001144	+0.44%	0.001003	-11.94%	0.1112	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001393	+0.05%	0.001139	-18.18%	0.1892	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001463	+0.05%	0.001392	-4.79%	0.0570	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001538	+0.04%	0.001462	-4.88%	0.0595	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001849	-0.30%	0.001537	-17.14%	0.1962	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001558	+0.22%	0.001855	+19.29%	0.1560	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001815	-0.01%	0.001555	-14.33%	0.1869	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.00182	+0.10%	0.001815	-0.17%	0.0344	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002221	-0.21%	0.001818	-18.33%	0.1686	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002269	-0.21%	0.002226	-2.11%	0.0327	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002483	-0.32%	0.002274	-8.71%	0.0790	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002518	-0.34%	0.002491	-1.42%	0.0096	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002308	-0.13%	0.002527	+9.35%	0.0851	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.00258	-0.21%	0.002311	-10.60%	0.0877	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002708	-0.20%	0.002585	-4.72%	0.0182	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003099	-0.30%	0.002713	-12.71%	0.1130	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003261	-0.32%	0.003108	-4.98%	0.0591	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003647	-0.44%	0.003271	-10.70%	0.0941	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003795	-0.49%	0.003663	-3.96%	0.0469	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.00446	-1.10%	0.003814	-15.41%	0.1666	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.00392	-0.67%	0.004509	+14.24%	0.1712	✗	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003737	-0.58%	0.003947	+5.00%	0.0787	✗	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.00394	-0.85%	0.003759	-5.41%	0.0338	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003532	-0.57%	0.003974	+11.88%	0.1071	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003545	-0.60%	0.003552	-0.39%	0.0229	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.00332	-0.49%	0.003566	+6.89%	0.0547	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004224	-1.83%	0.003336	-22.47%	0.2355	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002911	-0.34%	0.004303	+47.31%	0.3764	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002747	-0.18%	0.002921	+6.16%	0.0632	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003375	-0.73%	0.002752	-19.07%	0.1992	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002705	-0.13%	0.0034	+25.51%	0.2293	✗	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002542	+0.22%	0.002709	+6.82%	0.0659	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002764	+0.13%	0.002536	-8.12%	0.0861	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003431	-0.31%	0.00276	-19.81%	0.2464	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003855	-0.48%	0.003442	-11.15%	0.1157	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003894	-0.47%	0.003874	-0.97%	0.0319	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004233	-0.58%	0.003912	-8.13%	0.1878	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004608	-0.68%	0.004258	-8.23%	0.1455	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.005039	-0.80%	0.00464	-8.64%	0.0881	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005511	-1.02%	0.005079	-8.78%	0.0703	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005278	-0.93%	0.005568	+4.50%	0.0493	✗	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005981	-1.83%	0.005328	-12.54%	0.1403	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004415	-0.80%	0.006092	+36.90%	0.2947	✗	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.005015	-1.47%	0.00445	-12.57%	0.1531	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004121	-0.76%	0.00509	+22.56%	0.2075	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004367	-0.97%	0.004153	-5.83%	0.0545	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004033	-0.63%	0.00441	+8.65%	0.0734	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003763	-0.33%	0.004059	+7.52%	0.1033	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003874	-0.30%	0.003775	-2.86%	0.0269	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004258	-0.47%	0.003886	-9.16%	0.1006	✓	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005122	-0.84%	0.004278	-17.17%	0.1777	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005366	-0.91%	0.005165	-4.62%	0.0321	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005556	-0.96%	0.005415	-3.48%	0.0167	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005576	-0.93%	0.00561	-0.32%	0.0183	✗	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006038	-1.07%	0.005628	-7.78%	0.0450	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005931	-1.05%	0.006103	+1.82%	0.0062	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006216	-1.26%	0.005994	-4.80%	0.0215	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005838	-1.25%	0.006296	+6.50%	0.0908	✗	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004975	-0.81%	0.005912	+17.86%	0.1783	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005995	-0.97%	0.005016	-17.15%	0.1973	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006299	-1.01%	0.006054	-4.86%	0.0454	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.008133	-2.41%	0.006363	-23.65%	0.2478	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006443	-2.32%	0.008334	+26.35%	0.2751	✗	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.00432	-0.83%	0.006596	+51.42%	0.4167	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004248	-0.77%	0.004356	+1.75%	0.0120	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.