2022-01-03 · +30d

beta_5y · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 138 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2835

138 of 138 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+20.25%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

81.2%

in alpha space · 95.7% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-20.53%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (138 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		13.612	11.8846	-12.69%	7.564	-44.43%	0.4647	✓	-0.06	98k	2022-02-02
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.8413	0.741029	-11.92%	0.4666	-44.54%	0.0688	✓	1.71	31.9M	2022-02-02
HIVE	Hive	native	1.6303	1.4395	-11.70%	0.9455	-42.00%	0.1034	✓	1.38	5.5M	2022-02-02
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	41.84	37.0964	-11.34%	26.55	-36.54%	0.0444	✓	1.65	2.8M	2022-02-02
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.02216	0.019678	-11.20%	0.00607	-72.61%	0.9464	✓	1.00	29.0M	2022-02-02
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.89	3.4686	-10.83%	1.9	-51.16%	0.2979	✓	1.32	11.2M	2022-02-02
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	39.29	35.0785	-10.72%	26.33	-32.99%	0.0784	✓	0.91	43.4M	2022-02-02
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	13.72	12.2697	-10.57%	7.54	-45.04%	0.4874	✓	-0.00	3.7M	2022-02-02
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	12.81	11.5264	-10.02%	5.77	-54.96%	0.5536	✓	0.60	1.3M	2022-02-02
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	6.53	5.8761	-10.01%	3.11	-52.37%	0.3257	✓	1.35	29.3M	2022-02-02
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.64	0.577284	-9.80%	0.5361	-16.23%	0.2456	✗	1.39	650k	2022-02-02
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.1235	0.111874	-9.41%	0.0786	-36.36%	0.1233	✓	1.00	35.9M	2022-02-02
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.2506	2.9498	-9.25%	2.537	-21.95%	0.0656	✓	0.94	5.9M	2022-02-02
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0025	0.91218	-9.01%	0.8666	-13.56%	0.1785	✗	1.00	146k	2022-02-02
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	4.17	3.8083	-8.68%	2.18	-47.72%	0.3281	✓	1.00	3.4M	2022-02-02
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.19941	0.182466	-8.50%	0.19118	-4.13%	0.4068	✗	1.57	6,519	2022-02-02
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	38,753.93	35,467.96	-8.48%	23,029.36	-40.58%	0.2933	✓	0.60	15.7M	2022-02-02
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.796	2.5595	-8.46%	1.696	-39.34%	0.1767	✓	1.02	1.9M	2022-02-02
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	108.09	99.1884	-8.24%	67.87	-37.21%	0.1233	✓	1.11	119.6M	2022-02-02
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	1.5062	1.3832	-8.17%	0.37	-75.43%	1.1309	✓	0.82	4.5M	2022-02-02
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.7949	1.6493	-8.11%	0.9235	-48.55%	0.3245	✓	1.11	30.0M	2022-02-02
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	2.0456	1.8806	-8.07%	0.8664	-57.65%	0.3437	✓	1.88	1.5M	2022-02-02
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.374	0.344663	-7.84%	0.278	-25.67%	0.0136	✓	0.99	293k	2022-02-02
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.467	3.1957	-7.83%	2.582	-25.53%	0.1535	✗	1.60	1.9M	2022-02-02
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.64	0.59099	-7.66%	0.316	-50.63%	0.3362	✓	1.26	2.2M	2022-02-02
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.5394	1.4219	-7.63%	1.0423	-32.29%	0.0922	✓	0.95	3.7M	2022-02-02
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	11.29	10.4486	-7.45%	5.22	-53.76%	0.5013	✓	0.84	1.2M	2022-02-02
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	88.92	82.3697	-7.37%	47.6	-46.47%	0.3186	✓	1.00	5.3M	2022-02-02
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.11092	0.102949	-7.19%	0.07379	-33.47%	0.1858	✓	0.64	55k	2022-02-02
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.14	1.0625	-6.80%	0.64	-43.86%	0.2772	✓	1.00	1.9M	2022-02-02
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.13	3.8495	-6.79%	3.4	-17.68%	0.1056	✗	1.00	1.0M	2022-02-02
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	4.57	4.263	-6.72%	3.03	-33.70%	0.1117	✓	1.00	2.5M	2022-02-02
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.3019	1.2157	-6.62%	0.81012	-37.77%	0.0009	✓	1.76	1.3M	2022-02-02
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.2437	1.1616	-6.60%	0.6281	-49.50%	0.2934	✓	1.40	1.9M	2022-02-02
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	39.23	36.6874	-6.48%	18.01	-54.09%	0.2984	✓	1.80	5.7M	2022-02-02
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	7.19	6.7298	-6.40%	5.33	-25.87%	0.0284	✓	1.14	3.3M	2022-02-02
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	8.51	7.9733	-6.31%	4.09	-51.94%	0.3670	✓	1.31	17.7M	2022-02-02
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.6942	0.650424	-6.31%	0.4277	-38.39%	0.1148	✓	1.32	2.9M	2022-02-02
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.033837	0.031718	-6.26%	0.020246	-40.17%	0.2137	✓	1.02	7.8M	2022-02-02
METRONOME	METRONOME		4.605	4.3177	-6.24%	3.3042	-28.25%	0.1086	✓	0.69	18k	2022-02-02
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003307	0.000031049	-6.11%	0.00002064	-37.59%	0.1222	✓	1.25	1.7M	2022-02-02
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	3.381	3.1747	-6.10%	2.235	-33.90%	0.1568	✓	0.85	41k	2022-02-02
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.51	9.8764	-6.03%	9.36	-10.94%	0.1179	✗	0.75	1.3M	2022-02-02
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.3842	1.3015	-5.97%	0.8404	-39.29%	0.2222	✓	0.94	21.2M	2022-02-02
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.94026	0.885358	-5.84%	0.5718	-39.19%	0.1803	✓	1.12	2.8M	2022-02-02
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	9.27	8.7317	-5.81%	5.49	-40.78%	0.2078	✓	1.12	3.9M	2022-02-02
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	191.896	180.8043	-5.78%	73.5972	-61.65%	0.6319	✓	1.16	574k	2022-02-02
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.3948	1.3169	-5.59%	1.8613	+33.45%	0.5987	✗	1.10	926k	2022-02-02
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.8521	1.7516	-5.42%	1.1125	-39.93%	0.2694	✓	0.80	689k	2022-02-02
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7048	0.667341	-5.31%	0.5398	-23.41%	0.0795	✗	1.27	5.3M	2022-02-02
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3888	0.368201	-5.30%	0.2783	-28.42%	0.0622	✗	1.49	3.4M	2022-02-02
KCS	KuCoin	native	22.363	21.1821	-5.28%	17.776	-20.51%	0.2000	✗	1.63	14.1M	2022-02-02
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.3545	2.2302	-5.28%	1.6005	-32.02%	0.0736	✓	1.12	100k	2022-02-02
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.57	3.3816	-5.28%	2.46	-31.09%	0.0695	✓	1.08	626k	2022-02-02
ZEN	Horizen	Base	63.44	60.1483	-5.19%	38.13	-39.90%	0.1094	✓	1.51	837k	2022-02-02
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.3005	0.285154	-5.11%	0.1803	-40.00%	0.1586	✓	1.30	4.6M	2022-02-02
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0731	0.069383	-5.08%	0.034	-53.49%	0.3921	✓	1.40	1.7M	2022-02-02
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.05248	0.049836	-5.04%	0.02927	-44.23%	0.3263	✓	0.90	8.2M	2022-02-02
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3721	0.353972	-4.87%	0.2314	-37.81%	0.1324	✓	1.27	3.4M	2022-02-02
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	11.56	10.9968	-4.87%	6.53	-43.51%	0.5596	✓	-0.17	2.3M	2022-02-02
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.8156	4.5843	-4.80%	3.7524	-22.08%	0.1063	✗	1.33	4.9M	2022-02-02
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.0855	0.081508	-4.67%	0.0418	-51.11%	0.3883	✓	1.22	20.9M	2022-02-02
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.290288	0.276925	-4.60%	0.193151	-33.46%	0.1267	✓	1.02	24.9M	2022-02-02
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.1828	5.901	-4.56%	4.6307	-25.10%	0.0335	✓	1.20	577k	2022-02-02
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.197	0.188037	-4.55%	0.11	-44.16%	0.2639	✓	1.19	2.4M	2022-02-02
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1352	0.129091	-4.52%	0.0794	-41.27%	0.2396	✓	1.07	310k	2022-02-02
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.02023	0.019336	-4.42%	0.0126	-37.72%	0.2799	✓	0.65	36k	2022-02-02
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01736	0.0166	-4.38%	0.00952	-45.16%	0.2597	✓	1.29	2.2M	2022-02-02
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.0636	0.060863	-4.30%	0.035872	-43.60%	0.2092	✓	1.39	7.5M	2022-02-02
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.777	4.578	-4.17%	3.166	-33.72%	0.1943	✓	0.76	1.2M	2022-02-02
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	18.47	17.7097	-4.12%	10.53	-42.99%	0.2251	✓	1.28	14.1M	2022-02-02
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	289.65	277.7401	-4.11%	162.31	-43.96%	0.2808	✓	1.12	1.3M	2022-02-02
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.616	1.5499	-4.09%	0.883	-45.36%	0.2659	✓	1.29	3.4M	2022-02-02
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	9.436	9.0551	-4.04%	5.754	-39.02%	0.3132	✓	0.61	302k	2022-02-02
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.6582	0.632392	-3.92%	0.4048	-38.50%	0.1489	✓	1.29	11.4M	2022-02-02
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.1177	2.9974	-3.86%	3.0352	-2.65%	0.2879	✗	1.20	3.1M	2022-02-02
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	267.25	256.949	-3.85%	151.26	-43.40%	0.2700	✓	1.13	12.6M	2022-02-02
XMR	Monero	Monero	231.81	223.0636	-3.77%	145.08	-37.41%	0.1994	✓	1.00	3.2M	2022-02-02
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.1004	0.096643	-3.74%	0.0599	-40.34%	0.1651	✓	1.36	1.6M	2022-02-02
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.2052	0.197522	-3.74%	0.1092	-46.78%	0.3077	✓	1.24	4.8M	2022-02-02
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.904	0.871263	-3.62%	0.465	-48.56%	0.2897	✓	1.47	8.1M	2022-02-02
XEC	eCash	native	0.00011648	0.000112332	-3.56%	0.00007582	-34.91%	0.1676	✓	0.98	7.4M	2022-02-02
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.43	3.3082	-3.55%	2.41	-29.74%	0.0875	✓	1.00	995k	2022-02-02
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	8.316	8.0207	-3.55%	5.883	-29.26%	0.0196	✓	1.26	354k	2022-02-02
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01573	0.015183	-3.48%	0.00983	-37.51%	0.2153	✓	0.96	817k	2022-02-02
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	2.265	2.1869	-3.45%	1.589	-29.85%	0.0617	✓	1.12	2.7M	2022-02-02
XVG	Verge	native	0.01731	0.01672	-3.41%	0.00978	-43.50%	0.2622	✓	1.19	2.2M	2022-02-02
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	4.152	4.0105	-3.41%	3.03	-27.02%	0.1280	✓	0.66	483k	2022-02-02
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	150.55	145.4695	-3.37%	98.35	-34.67%	0.0812	✓	1.35	10.3M	2022-02-02
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.72	1.6623	-3.36%	1.36	-20.93%	0.1944	✗	1.72	1.0M	2022-02-02
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	36.41	35.2306	-3.24%	20.09	-44.82%	0.2104	✓	1.53	1.1M	2022-02-02
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	8.6	8.3228	-3.22%	6.05	-29.65%	0.1437	✓	0.76	773k	2022-02-02
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	29.28	28.3552	-3.16%	21.59	-26.26%	0.0509	✗	1.41	24.2M	2022-02-02
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	9.2052	8.9176	-3.12%	6.025	-34.55%	0.0669	✓	1.42	273k	2022-02-02
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	4.6279	4.4836	-3.12%	3.1357	-32.24%	0.0608	✓	1.29	5.0M	2022-02-02
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	24.7	23.9342	-3.10%	13.76	-44.29%	0.3172	✓	1.03	1.3M	2022-02-02
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.18	14.7133	-3.07%	14.09	-7.18%	0.1142	✗	0.69	1.2M	2022-02-02
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.086	0.083383	-3.04%	0.0643	-25.23%	0.0135	✓	1.07	20k	2022-02-02
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.4392	6.2446	-3.02%	6.8016	+5.63%	0.2787	✗	0.84	3.9M	2022-02-02
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	30.09	29.1925	-2.98%	18.76	-37.65%	0.1462	✓	1.29	72.5M	2022-02-02
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	23.72	23.0241	-2.93%	15.79	-33.43%	0.0731	✓	1.32	69.2M	2022-02-02
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.56	5.4004	-2.87%	3.37	-39.39%	0.1979	✓	1.19	2.1M	2022-02-02
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05659	0.054995	-2.82%	0.03913	-30.85%	0.0876	✓	1.10	15k	2022-02-02
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.24	1.2061	-2.73%	0.719	-42.02%	0.3011	✓	0.94	2.5M	2022-02-02
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1984	0.193028	-2.71%	0.1348	-32.06%	0.1508	✓	0.91	527k	2022-02-02
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.414	0.403489	-2.54%	0.25	-39.61%	0.3106	✓	0.73	41k	2022-02-02
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	15.52	15.1262	-2.54%	7.83	-49.55%	0.3932	✓	1.15	3.5M	2022-02-02
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	222.2	216.6071	-2.52%	121.22	-45.45%	0.3173	✓	1.15	210k	2022-02-02
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	94.38	92.0066	-2.51%	49.12	-47.96%	0.4067	✓	0.96	6.3M	2022-02-02
DASH	Dash	Dash	139.05	135.5906	-2.49%	93.05	-33.08%	0.0853	✓	1.27	1.9M	2022-02-02
XEM	NEM	native	0.127	0.123891	-2.45%	0.1015	-20.08%	0.0534	✗	1.10	115k	2022-02-02
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	3.25	3.1725	-2.39%	1.87	-42.46%	0.2288	✓	1.30	3.0M	2022-02-02
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.09008	0.088013	-2.29%	0.05325	-40.89%	0.1683	✓	1.45	3.0M	2022-02-02
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.682	1.6446	-2.23%	1.279	-23.96%	0.0613	✗	1.36	6.0M	2022-02-02
SOL	Solana	Solana	170.13	166.5374	-2.11%	101.99	-40.05%	0.2454	✓	1.07	217.0M	2022-02-02
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	34.72	33.9919	-2.10%	26.29	-24.28%	0.0181	✓	1.04	3.9M	2022-02-02
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.152	5.044	-2.10%	3.998	-22.40%	0.0938	✓	0.60	598k	2022-02-02
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2058	0.201495	-2.09%	0.1756	-14.67%	0.0005	✓	0.60	428k	2022-02-02
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7914	3.7172	-1.96%	4.1355	+9.08%	0.0811	✗	-0.11	374k	2022-02-02
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,766.04	3,696.42	-1.85%	2,682.66	-28.77%	0.0820	✓	1.04	654.8M	2022-02-02
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.170103	0.166976	-1.84%	0.137104	-19.40%	0.0559	✗	1.10	4.7M	2022-02-02
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.3186	1.2956	-1.74%	1.0268	-22.13%	0.0193	✗	1.10	98.5M	2022-02-02
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	40.22	39.5989	-1.54%	42.9	+6.66%	0.3223	✗	1.05	19.4M	2022-02-02
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	7.21	7.1081	-1.41%	5.04	-30.10%	0.1973	✓	0.64	861k	2022-02-02
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	46,459.56	45,814.44	-1.39%	36,923.39	-20.53%	0.0140	✗	1.00	727.0M	2022-02-02
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.022053	0.021773	-1.27%	0.014783	-32.97%	0.1104	✓	1.20	2.4M	2022-02-02
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.12106	0.119534	-1.26%	0.08941	-26.14%	0.0374	✓	1.10	26k	2022-02-02
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	31.64	31.2743	-1.16%	23.57	-25.51%	0.1272	✓	0.68	385k	2022-02-02
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		122.18	121	-0.97%	90	-26.34%	0.0769	✓	0.95	3.2M	2022-02-02
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.5792	3.5453	-0.95%	2.1064	-41.15%	0.2758	✓	1.07	754k	2022-02-02
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	434.61	431.1781	-0.79%	278	-36.03%	0.2064	✓	1.01	9.1M	2022-02-02
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	35.08	34.8449	-0.67%	20.19	-42.45%	0.3067	✓	1.04	22.7M	2022-02-02
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	178.99	177.8157	-0.66%	113.54	-36.57%	0.2284	✓	0.96	8.7M	2022-02-02
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	8.89	8.8352	-0.62%	6.02	-32.28%	0.2447	✓	0.60	869k	2022-02-02
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	46,018.20	45,950.09	-0.15%	37,883.40	-17.68%	0.0317	✗	0.98	10k	2022-02-02
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	148.43	148.2937	-0.09%	108.36	-27.00%	0.0042	✓	1.35	38.3M	2022-02-02
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.076988	0.077028	+0.05%	0.058639	-23.83%	0.0568	✗	0.94	552k	2022-02-02
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.56	2.5633	+0.13%	1.63	-36.33%	0.2095	✗	1.06	4.0M	2022-02-02

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.