2021-12-28 · +30d

beta_5y · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 137 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.3045

137 of 137 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+34.74%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

85.4%

in alpha space · 94.2% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-21.78%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (137 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		14.59	12.2984	-15.71%	6.745	-53.77%	0.6176	✓	-0.07	129k	2022-01-27
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.7896	0.679307	-13.97%	0.6525	-17.36%	0.3902	✗	1.75	28.3M	2022-01-27
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	4.38	3.7842	-13.60%	1.95	-55.48%	0.4174	✓	1.00	15.2M	2022-01-27
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	14.64	12.7956	-12.60%	6.75	-53.89%	0.6426	✓	-0.01	4.8M	2022-01-27
HIVE	Hive	native	1.6115	1.4107	-12.46%	0.8838	-45.16%	0.1331	✓	1.36	7.1M	2022-01-27
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.02187	0.019183	-12.29%	0.00534	-75.58%	1.0331	✓	1.00	39.8M	2022-01-27
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	38.45	34.0023	-11.57%	24.3	-36.80%	0.0868	✓	1.72	3.0M	2022-01-27
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.3399	2.9623	-11.30%	2.2527	-32.55%	0.0412	✓	0.95	8.0M	2022-01-27
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	11.57	10.335	-10.67%	5.62	-51.43%	0.4681	✓	0.57	1.5M	2022-01-27
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.6826	1.5082	-10.36%	0.99692	-40.75%	0.1744	✓	0.98	5.3M	2022-01-27
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	1.71	1.5385	-10.03%	0.4535	-73.48%	1.0118	✓	0.85	5.9M	2022-01-27
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	2.0752	1.8704	-9.87%	0.9645	-53.52%	0.1935	✓	1.91	1.5M	2022-01-27
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.2085	0.188296	-9.69%	0.17087	-18.05%	0.2914	✗	1.58	13k	2022-01-27
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	107.05	96.745	-9.63%	64.73	-39.53%	0.1396	✓	1.07	136.0M	2022-01-27
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.64	0.581608	-9.12%	0.314	-50.94%	0.3093	✓	1.25	2.9M	2022-01-27
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.754	2.5028	-9.12%	1.58	-42.63%	0.2132	✓	1.00	2.2M	2022-01-27
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.891	3.5362	-9.12%	2.637	-32.23%	0.0478	✓	1.00	3.0M	2022-01-27
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.027	0.935306	-8.93%	0.8569	-16.56%	0.1581	✗	1.00	151k	2022-01-27
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	11.66	10.6417	-8.73%	5.07	-56.52%	0.5314	✓	0.86	1.3M	2022-01-27
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.342	0.314977	-7.90%	0.2367	-30.79%	0.0545	✓	0.94	328k	2022-01-27
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	4.5	4.1493	-7.79%	2.23	-50.44%	0.3753	✓	1.00	4.4M	2022-01-27
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.2569	1.1594	-7.76%	0.5781	-54.01%	0.3434	✓	1.43	2.3M	2022-01-27
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	9.06	8.373	-7.58%	4.05	-55.30%	0.4057	✓	1.30	15.8M	2022-01-27
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	4.87	4.5063	-7.47%	2.65	-45.59%	0.2853	✓	1.00	2.5M	2022-01-27
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	85.17	78.8445	-7.43%	54.08	-36.50%	0.1314	✓	1.00	7.4M	2022-01-27
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	39.7	36.7751	-7.37%	16.82	-57.63%	0.3316	✓	1.83	7.2M	2022-01-27
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.56	4.2352	-7.12%	3.97	-12.94%	0.1810	✗	1.00	1.2M	2022-01-27
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.18	1.0965	-7.07%	0.65	-44.92%	0.2773	✓	1.00	2.4M	2022-01-27
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.7106	0.66106	-6.97%	0.4474	-37.04%	0.0663	✓	1.32	3.4M	2022-01-27
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.4291	1.3304	-6.90%	0.8032	-43.80%	0.2750	✓	0.94	23.6M	2022-01-27
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00003492	0.000032672	-6.44%	0.00002125	-39.15%	0.1845	✓	1.00	2.2M	2022-01-27
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	9.59	8.9763	-6.40%	5.67	-40.88%	0.1829	✓	1.13	4.1M	2022-01-27
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.76	10.086	-6.26%	8.93	-17.01%	0.0638	✓	0.76	1.4M	2022-01-27
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.10316	0.096709	-6.25%	0.07195	-30.25%	0.1385	✓	0.64	92k	2022-01-27
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.2203	1.1451	-6.17%	0.83214	-31.81%	0.1072	✗	1.74	1.5M	2022-01-27
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.033967	0.031875	-6.16%	0.020242	-40.41%	0.1963	✓	1.05	9.3M	2022-01-27
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	4.72	4.4309	-6.13%	2.79	-40.89%	0.1416	✓	1.31	26.8M	2022-01-27
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.3033	0.285162	-5.98%	0.1754	-42.17%	0.1706	✓	1.28	5.8M	2022-01-27
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.8135	1.7051	-5.98%	1.0754	-40.70%	0.2686	✓	0.78	1.1M	2022-01-27
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	190.178	178.8744	-5.94%	73.6045	-61.30%	0.6395	✓	1.01	674k	2022-01-27
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	5.349	5.0433	-5.71%	3.107	-41.91%	0.3191	✓	0.67	734k	2022-01-27
ZEN	Horizen	Base	63.32	59.7224	-5.68%	36.7	-42.04%	0.1372	✓	1.42	1.2M	2022-01-27
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.7165	0.677298	-5.47%	0.5092	-28.93%	0.0199	✓	1.24	6.6M	2022-01-27
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.4667	1.3872	-5.42%	0.9364	-36.16%	0.1281	✓	1.08	31.7M	2022-01-27
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.3011	1.2308	-5.40%	1.8043	+38.67%	0.6442	✗	1.07	1.1M	2022-01-27
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.4846	2.3508	-5.38%	1.5616	-37.15%	0.1505	✓	1.05	147k	2022-01-27
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3842	0.36394	-5.27%	0.2343	-39.02%	0.1252	✓	1.28	4.4M	2022-01-27
KCS	KuCoin	native	21.506	20.3794	-5.24%	16.064	-25.30%	0.1624	✗	1.63	18.6M	2022-01-27
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	10.128	9.6026	-5.19%	5.722	-43.50%	0.2208	✓	1.21	411k	2022-01-27
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3781	0.358924	-5.07%	0.2772	-26.69%	0.0889	✗	1.41	4.7M	2022-01-27
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.52	3.3416	-5.07%	2.26	-35.80%	0.1409	✓	1.02	787k	2022-01-27
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.05063	0.048073	-5.05%	0.02909	-42.54%	0.2828	✓	0.89	10.4M	2022-01-27
METRONOME	METRONOME		4.8047	4.5751	-4.78%	2.7225	-43.34%	0.3561	✓	0.66	26k	2022-01-27
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.798687	0.760917	-4.73%	0.530399	-33.59%	0.1028	✓	1.05	3.0M	2022-01-27
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	12.05	11.4868	-4.67%	6.37	-47.14%	0.6355	✓	-0.19	4.3M	2022-01-27
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.3661	3.2105	-4.62%	2.7628	-17.92%	0.1503	✗	1.22	3.3M	2022-01-27
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	26.57	25.3648	-4.54%	30	+12.91%	0.3898	✗	0.90	40.2M	2022-01-27
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1358	0.129777	-4.43%	0.0794	-41.53%	0.2313	✓	1.06	344k	2022-01-27
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0659	0.062977	-4.43%	0.0357	-45.83%	0.2413	✓	1.33	1.9M	2022-01-27
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01993	0.019057	-4.38%	0.01439	-27.80%	0.1459	✓	0.55	45k	2022-01-27
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.2199	0.210285	-4.37%	0.1127	-48.75%	0.3313	✓	1.19	6.1M	2022-01-27
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.05923	0.056663	-4.33%	0.038232	-35.45%	0.0497	✓	1.40	8.2M	2022-01-27
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	9.798	9.3736	-4.33%	5.873	-40.06%	0.3133	✓	0.63	455k	2022-01-27
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.1045	0.099986	-4.32%	0.065	-37.80%	0.0893	✓	1.39	2.0M	2022-01-27
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1923	0.184016	-4.31%	0.0947	-50.75%	0.3836	✓	1.14	3.6M	2022-01-27
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	6.2683	6.0135	-4.07%	4.2126	-32.79%	0.0785	✓	1.13	724k	2022-01-27
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.4301	0.413461	-3.87%	0.5303	+23.30%	0.5941	✗	1.41	1.0M	2022-01-27
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	4.564	4.3884	-3.85%	2.955	-35.25%	0.2391	✓	0.64	502k	2022-01-27
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	294.8	283.5911	-3.80%	164.64	-44.15%	0.2764	✓	1.09	1.5M	2022-01-27
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01563	0.015045	-3.74%	0.00962	-38.45%	0.2136	✓	0.95	1.2M	2022-01-27
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.274101	0.263912	-3.72%	0.194019	-29.22%	0.0582	✓	1.02	32.3M	2022-01-27
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	18.4	17.7228	-3.68%	10.32	-43.91%	0.2336	✓	1.25	15.5M	2022-01-27
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	28,691.22	27,638.51	-3.67%	23,910.78	-16.66%	0.0005	✓	0.59	9.0M	2022-01-27
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.07538	0.072619	-3.66%	0.04646	-38.37%	0.1476	✓	1.22	21.1M	2022-01-27
XVG	Verge	native	0.0176	0.016969	-3.59%	0.00965	-45.17%	0.2720	✓	1.19	2.8M	2022-01-27
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.6659	0.64245	-3.52%	0.4054	-39.12%	0.1683	✓	1.19	12.5M	2022-01-27
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.911	0.87912	-3.50%	0.482	-47.09%	0.2468	✓	1.44	9.2M	2022-01-27
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.77	1.7086	-3.47%	0.81	-54.24%	0.3310	✓	1.69	1.5M	2022-01-27
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.4909	4.3392	-3.38%	2.9095	-35.21%	0.0767	✓	1.31	5.4M	2022-01-27
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.537	1.4856	-3.35%	0.861	-43.98%	0.2258	✓	1.30	4.1M	2022-01-27
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	5.0292	4.865	-3.27%	3.0464	-39.43%	0.1467	✓	1.31	5.2M	2022-01-27
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01651	0.015996	-3.11%	0.01041	-36.95%	0.1218	✓	1.25	2.7M	2022-01-27
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	149.45	144.8698	-3.06%	88.89	-40.52%	0.1757	✓	1.27	11.8M	2022-01-27
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	16.17	15.6806	-3.03%	12.75	-21.15%	0.0420	✓	0.67	1.4M	2022-01-27
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	25.42	24.658	-3.00%	13.95	-45.12%	0.3958	✓	0.71	1.6M	2022-01-27
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	252.64	245.1303	-2.97%	144.54	-42.79%	0.2698	✓	1.05	11.4M	2022-01-27
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.459	6.2724	-2.89%	6.5312	+1.12%	0.2263	✗	0.76	4.3M	2022-01-27
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.28	1.2437	-2.83%	0.725	-43.36%	0.3136	✓	0.92	3.1M	2022-01-27
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	9.08	8.8275	-2.78%	5.9	-35.02%	0.2266	✓	0.72	1.1M	2022-01-27
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.423	0.411415	-2.74%	0.243	-42.55%	0.3451	✓	0.74	46k	2022-01-27
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.34	3.2488	-2.73%	2.3	-31.14%	0.1065	✓	0.97	1.2M	2022-01-27
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	99.74	97.0275	-2.72%	47.47	-52.41%	0.4766	✓	0.97	7.6M	2022-01-27
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.695	5.5438	-2.65%	3.89	-31.69%	0.2156	✓	0.56	798k	2022-01-27
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	9.0923	8.8565	-2.59%	5.5654	-38.79%	0.1280	✓	1.37	285k	2022-01-27
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	35.02	34.1409	-2.51%	18.67	-46.69%	0.2457	✓	1.46	1.3M	2022-01-27
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.85	5.7082	-2.42%	4.57	-21.88%	0.0532	✗	1.12	5.1M	2022-01-27
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.98	2.9092	-2.37%	2.121	-28.83%	0.1039	✓	0.86	92k	2022-01-27
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1998	0.195106	-2.35%	0.1146	-42.64%	0.3166	✓	0.88	701k	2022-01-27
XEC	eCash	native	0.00010951	0.000106976	-2.31%	0.00007022	-35.88%	0.1782	✓	0.99	9.9M	2022-01-27
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.05427	0.053069	-2.21%	0.0403	-25.74%	0.0165	✓	1.05	16k	2022-01-27
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.08977	0.087844	-2.15%	0.04978	-44.55%	0.2094	✓	1.46	4.1M	2022-01-27
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	15.54	15.2077	-2.14%	8.39	-46.01%	0.3180	✓	1.13	4.8M	2022-01-27
XMR	Monero	Monero	208.62	204.2564	-2.09%	144.6	-30.69%	0.1217	✓	0.91	2.8M	2022-01-27
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2158	0.211313	-2.08%	0.1614	-25.21%	0.1371	✓	0.54	392k	2022-01-27
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0838	0.082102	-2.03%	0.0638	-23.87%	0.0052	✓	1.05	16k	2022-01-27
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.3998	1.3716	-2.02%	1.0428	-25.50%	0.0182	✓	1.04	120.2M	2022-01-27
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	2.108	2.0676	-1.92%	1.399	-33.63%	0.1163	✓	1.12	3.3M	2022-01-27
XEM	NEM	native	0.1284	0.125952	-1.91%	0.0984	-23.36%	0.0142	✓	1.06	175k	2022-01-27
SOL	Solana	Solana	177.27	174.0056	-1.84%	89.55	-49.48%	0.4303	✓	0.95	257.1M	2022-01-27
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.34	5.2428	-1.82%	3.38	-36.70%	0.1532	✓	1.16	2.5M	2022-01-27
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	34.96	34.3559	-1.73%	24.33	-30.41%	0.0986	✓	1.00	5.1M	2022-01-27
DASH	Dash	Dash	134.75	132.4668	-1.69%	91.73	-31.93%	0.0595	✓	1.25	2.0M	2022-01-27
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	27.84	27.3836	-1.64%	18.13	-34.88%	0.1057	✓	1.25	77.1M	2022-01-27
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	3.03	2.9824	-1.57%	1.76	-41.91%	0.2098	✓	1.29	3.0M	2022-01-27
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.173745	0.17102	-1.57%	0.141443	-18.59%	0.0800	✗	1.10	6.0M	2022-01-27
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.7465	3.6897	-1.52%	2.3156	-38.19%	0.2123	✓	1.03	819k	2022-01-27
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	33.51	33.0141	-1.48%	26.76	-20.14%	0.0562	✓	0.63	572k	2022-01-27
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,793.67	3,739.26	-1.43%	2,425.82	-36.06%	0.1830	✓	1.02	766.3M	2022-01-27
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.6	3.55	-1.39%	3.4851	-3.19%	0.0474	✓	-0.12	405k	2022-01-27
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	209	206.1043	-1.39%	121.94	-41.66%	0.2515	✓	1.11	236k	2022-01-27
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	9.7	9.5697	-1.34%	5.84	-39.79%	0.3482	✓	0.59	1.1M	2022-01-27
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.664	1.6418	-1.33%	1.42	-14.66%	0.1821	✗	1.33	8.3M	2022-01-27
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.021978	0.021738	-1.09%	0.014097	-35.86%	0.1305	✓	1.23	2.4M	2022-01-27
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	7.57	7.493	-1.02%	5.12	-32.36%	0.2249	✓	0.63	1.1M	2022-01-27
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	47,543.09	47,123.64	-0.88%	37,188.37	-21.78%	0.0089	✓	1.00	750.8M	2022-01-27
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	24.71	24.4953	-0.87%	19.61	-20.64%	0.1225	✗	1.40	22.9M	2022-01-27
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	188.78	187.1888	-0.84%	93.16	-50.65%	0.4674	✓	0.94	11.5M	2022-01-27
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.11446	0.113497	-0.84%	0.08437	-26.29%	0.0284	✓	1.09	29k	2022-01-27
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	40.01	39.7762	-0.58%	38.35	-4.15%	0.2090	✗	1.00	20.7M	2022-01-27
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	47,383.60	47,270.13	-0.24%	37,269.30	-21.35%	0.0049	✗	0.99	10k	2022-01-27
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	36.25	36.1815	-0.19%	19.21	-47.01%	0.3838	✓	1.01	22.1M	2022-01-27
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		121.77	121.6872	-0.07%	89.31	-26.66%	0.0758	✓	0.95	3.7M	2022-01-27
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	438.74	438.4498	-0.07%	289.64	-33.98%	0.1698	✓	1.00	10.8M	2022-01-27
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.077218	0.07743	+0.27%	0.056453	-26.89%	0.0865	✗	0.93	648k	2022-01-27
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	20.36	20.4508	+0.45%	15.23	-25.20%	0.0155	✓	1.26	69.7M	2022-01-27
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	145.67	146.6912	+0.70%	106.92	-26.60%	0.0145	✓	1.35	53.2M	2022-01-27
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.54	2.5679	+1.10%	1.59	-37.40%	0.2342	✗	1.00	4.4M	2022-01-27

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.