UMX

UMX · · lstm_s9

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

62.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0767

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0047

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.040986	-2.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038273	-2.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041973	-2.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054604	-0.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055077	-0.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055604	-0.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058782	-0.53%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058659	-0.65%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3452	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058861	-0.81%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4117	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058831	-0.99%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3148	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059754	-1.10%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0805	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059543	-1.10%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0649	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059919	-1.24%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0638	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060166	-1.28%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0135	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059801	-1.20%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0145	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.06111	-1.16%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0220	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061447	-0.43%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0219	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061384	-0.50%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0039	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061806	+0.16%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0119	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060757	-1.04%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0076	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061081	-1.00%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0075	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061132	-0.57%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0063	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060804	-0.95%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0180	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060809	-0.65%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0052	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060226	-0.64%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0124	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060736	-0.01%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0050	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.061125	+0.11%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0026	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060944	+0.05%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0101	✓	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.061402	+0.38%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0013	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.061446	+0.45%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0038	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.061443	+1.17%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0127	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.061944	+1.27%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0008	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060703	-1.19%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0213	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059761	-1.16%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0003	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060633	-1.20%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0175	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059981	-1.91%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0318	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.060787	-1.97%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0468	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.059836	-1.68%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0515	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059612	-1.50%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0414	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.059922	-1.40%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0099	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.061783	-1.30%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0541	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064271	-1.19%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0764	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.06435	-1.09%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0494	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064565	-0.45%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0193	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066347	-0.22%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0574	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.06813	+0.10%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.1089	✗	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.070081	+0.22%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.1027	✗	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.072061	+0.26%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.1081	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.072224	+0.21%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0732	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073507	+0.52%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0621	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.074355	+0.15%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1492	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074664	+0.38%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1293	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.075457	+0.68%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.1098	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.076219	+0.57%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.1200	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.075606	+0.63%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0708	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.076777	+0.59%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0866	✗	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.077416	+0.59%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0692	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082639	+0.57%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0852	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083954	+0.48%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.1066	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.089071	+0.41%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1673	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086918	+0.23%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1362	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086759	+0.06%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1591	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.08349	+0.04%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0834	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.08174	-1.23%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1551	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083455	-1.66%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1469	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.08369	-1.48%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1956	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083439	-1.43%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1416	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083379	-1.28%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1734	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.