SWM

Swarm · · lstm_s9

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +7d

assessed

49

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

55.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2621

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0216

actual +0.0251

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.089223	-1.88%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.089048	-1.96%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.089655	-1.96%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.090127	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.091656	-2.07%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.091683	-2.06%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.093034	-2.11%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.087141	-1.75%	0.090935	+2.53%	0.0817	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.088302	-1.75%	0.090825	+1.06%	0.0743	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.10123	-2.30%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.1050	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.09869	-2.26%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0688	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098018	-2.21%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0814	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.097794	-2.27%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0764	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.096693	-2.22%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0396	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.096755	-2.28%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0778	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.094365	-2.08%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0852	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.096465	-1.93%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0185	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083283	-1.40%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.1072	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.09144	-1.52%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0306	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.089503	-1.42%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0702	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092373	-1.39%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0237	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.09394	-1.27%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0193	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.106229	-1.80%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.1037	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.123655	-2.43%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.1863	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.120649	-2.34%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.3054	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.152368	-3.68%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.4453	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.124404	-2.74%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.3071	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.103633	-1.70%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.0911	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.10244	-1.51%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0628	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102375	-1.45%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0354	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.093882	-0.98%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2415	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101846	-0.97%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1199	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.110816	-2.04%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4410	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.11635	-2.15%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.1772	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.117066	-2.12%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0210	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.126122	-2.47%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2928	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.136525	-2.79%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3759	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.126659	-2.43%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.4210	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.150958	-3.06%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.4861	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.151699	-3.14%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.3487	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.178843	-3.61%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.4583	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.188383	-3.94%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.5007	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.177971	-4.27%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.3170	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.131667	-3.68%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.0922	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.131739	-3.96%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.0225	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.113152	-3.69%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3311	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.100332	-2.51%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.4904	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076081	-1.17%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9242	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.074761	-1.16%	0.196105	+159.26%	0.9958	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072685	-0.83%	0.18591	+153.66%	0.9991	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069165	-1.36%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6687	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.068841	-1.35%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6760	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.068649	-1.17%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5306	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.070475	-1.35%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3448	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.070739	-1.28%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0643	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.073501	-1.51%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0054	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.