BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s9

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

53.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0602

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0045

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050802	-0.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050051	-0.15%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0185	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.04728	-0.18%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0472	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048675	-0.33%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0256	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052769	-0.53%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0839	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055744	-0.46%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0483	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044516	-0.19%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2364	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043777	-0.09%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0125	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047842	-0.05%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0723	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054714	+0.01%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1484	✗	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066179	-0.08%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1753	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067945	-0.15%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0318	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068392	-0.19%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0081	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065848	-0.18%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0327	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067404	-0.13%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0089	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.067132	+0.00%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0259	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062206	+0.06%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0780	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062472	+0.09%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0022	✓	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061908	+0.06%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0083	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062888	+0.08%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0186	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.06528	+0.08%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0349	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066159	-0.00%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0260	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.06688	-0.03%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0102	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067182	-0.01%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0058	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070963	+0.00%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0482	✗	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071158	+0.03%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0031	✗	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.06928	+0.09%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0244	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066967	+0.12%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0348	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063723	+0.11%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0485	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068988	+0.09%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0685	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068223	+0.06%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0134	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066107	-0.06%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0116	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065488	-0.03%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0106	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.06516	-0.03%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0026	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062372	-0.14%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0113	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061338	-0.13%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0166	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063111	-0.14%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0301	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062567	-0.12%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0239	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061739	-0.15%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0072	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063923	-0.17%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0307	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064121	-0.19%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0017	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060545	-0.07%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0558	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061937	+0.01%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0132	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.06771	+0.06%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0882	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067522	+0.12%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0064	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067501	+0.14%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0072	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068852	+0.14%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0246	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068772	+0.17%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0014	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069746	+0.17%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0048	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067383	+0.17%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0063	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067581	+0.17%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0040	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068514	+0.20%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0090	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067973	+0.20%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0003	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070721	+0.17%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0378	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071617	+0.19%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0169	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073349	+0.12%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0098	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.07228	+0.09%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0056	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069039	+0.04%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0418	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072257	-0.02%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0432	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073391	-0.08%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0240	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.07435	-0.12%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0169	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090773	-0.17%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1908	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083894	-0.33%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0540	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080227	-0.64%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0235	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.07845	-0.66%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0060	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076923	-0.64%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0247	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077455	-0.68%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0147	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079312	-0.57%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0153	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074846	-0.32%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0633	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075125	-0.33%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0035	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076269	-0.35%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0119	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.0764	-0.34%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0030	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.077094	-0.32%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0013	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073888	-0.23%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0561	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.077007	-0.27%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0384	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077686	-0.26%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0063	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083917	-0.38%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0819	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.08027	-0.30%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0523	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076538	-0.22%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0444	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076322	-0.21%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0015	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075721	-0.20%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0103	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.075066	-0.17%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0031	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078856	-0.23%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0469	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079331	-0.23%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0165	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.080013	-0.23%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0147	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.079085	-0.16%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0135	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079207	-0.14%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0014	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086822	-0.25%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0764	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084414	-0.20%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0223	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084253	-0.19%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0022	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075872	-0.08%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1154	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084097	-0.18%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0933	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.085245	-0.19%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0080	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085651	-0.21%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0120	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089965	-0.32%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0513	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091767	-0.38%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0153	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091347	-0.41%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0029	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090947	-0.43%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0066	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089103	-0.41%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0349	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087015	-0.42%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0313	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.09419	-0.57%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1195	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101383	-0.78%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0448	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097488	-0.83%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0476	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.102845	-1.07%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0399	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.109943	-1.33%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0708	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086325	-0.84%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2422	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084293	-0.88%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0465	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.093658	-1.26%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0880	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.090985	-1.49%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0358	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.090523	-1.63%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0130	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093267	-1.78%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0214	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.09919	-2.01%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0589	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.126918	-2.77%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2543	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098302	-1.89%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2614	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080307	-1.15%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2517	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079671	-1.21%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0095	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074266	-0.81%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0893	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066712	-0.44%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1164	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070657	-0.61%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0575	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082421	-1.20%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1306	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098009	-1.49%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1426	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093142	-1.17%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0811	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092492	-1.36%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0105	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.08735	-1.24%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0829	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096207	-1.66%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0936	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.093855	-1.55%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0339	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077154	-0.82%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2358	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075529	-0.80%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0478	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077812	-0.97%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0117	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071262	-0.40%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0892	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068904	-0.28%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0188	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074489	-0.58%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0891	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072811	-0.42%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0289	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062854	-0.01%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1224	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064631	-0.03%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0245	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064715	-0.04%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0183	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069978	-0.22%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0745	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066399	-0.00%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0222	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062227	+0.14%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0674	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063078	+0.08%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0242	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.07005	-0.14%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1024	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064973	-0.01%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1200	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.071026	-0.31%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0185	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.071099	-0.35%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0371	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076527	-0.58%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0671	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075977	-0.49%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0070	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060889	-0.00%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2286	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062203	-0.02%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0088	✓	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062155	-0.03%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0253	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068677	-0.11%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0786	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068442	-0.08%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0006	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071988	-0.09%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0544	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071071	-0.04%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0041	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083725	-0.33%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1396	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076532	-0.15%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0923	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070713	-0.08%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0729	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071432	-0.08%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0074	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070375	-0.09%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0209	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075681	-0.14%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0644	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074812	-0.13%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0235	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.08673	-0.22%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1310	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088552	-0.31%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0331	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109651	-0.79%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2054	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.104136	-0.57%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0664	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097857	-0.41%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0708	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.096009	-0.27%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0138	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089949	-0.15%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0651	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091776	-0.19%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0198	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.088005	-0.05%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0547	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090439	-0.09%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0308	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094475	-0.26%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0511	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098548	-0.42%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0508	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115732	-0.57%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1556	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109521	-0.60%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0575	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111498	-0.78%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0280	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128621	-0.98%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1401	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136867	-1.16%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0449	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.135258	-1.25%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0371	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.13249	-0.99%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0500	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.133059	-1.20%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0075	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.121046	-1.34%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1043	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.133572	-1.66%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0745	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.11283	-1.66%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1845	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.127632	-2.31%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1306	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.111454	-2.20%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1526	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.08478	-1.65%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2685	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089499	-1.89%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0120	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120041	-2.60%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2567	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.160242	-3.56%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2879	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084429	-1.29%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6726	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074585	-0.75%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1282	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.065432	-0.41%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1420	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059354	-0.25%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0507	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054587	-0.18%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1187	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053756	-0.18%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0159	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053489	-0.19%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0098	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061783	-0.25%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1522	✓	1.00