ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s9

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

68.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2411

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0210

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001346	-2.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001236	-1.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001241	-1.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001131	-1.55%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.00121	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001254	-1.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001235	-1.83%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001068	-1.47%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2293	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001123	-1.84%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1173	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001109	-1.51%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1277	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.00134	-1.93%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1220	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001332	-1.84%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0489	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001209	-1.72%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0759	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001333	-1.58%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0668	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001421	-1.73%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2365	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001543	-1.35%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2515	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001615	-1.02%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2789	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001628	-0.58%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1162	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.00168	-1.04%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1744	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001742	-0.96%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3060	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001873	-0.80%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2578	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001853	-1.12%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2423	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001781	-0.97%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1679	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001686	-0.96%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0782	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001896	-0.47%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1889	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001973	-0.51%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1568	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002006	-0.59%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1402	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002231	-1.21%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1764	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001929	-0.28%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0112	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002155	-0.15%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1274	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001747	+0.17%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0414	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001474	-1.75%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1846	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001764	-1.29%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0488	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001806	-1.36%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0401	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001581	-1.48%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1828	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001668	-1.43%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0260	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001655	-1.24%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0627	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001778	-1.35%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1708	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001879	-1.27%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3094	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001808	-1.11%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.0899	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001936	-1.02%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1275	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002021	-0.97%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2264	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002164	-0.99%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2025	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002217	-1.02%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2089	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002284	-1.06%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2146	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002503	-1.67%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1854	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002445	-1.61%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2277	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002929	-3.17%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3435	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003008	-3.27%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2720	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002288	-1.63%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0687	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.00234	-1.76%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0689	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002574	-2.30%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1206	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002848	-3.37%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1695	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002502	-2.14%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0426	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002093	-0.40%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3279	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002293	-1.14%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2839	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002153	-0.60%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1142	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001941	+0.21%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2292	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002244	-1.16%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1683	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002322	-1.61%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2396	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002578	-2.37%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0322	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002521	-2.35%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1723	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002913	-4.56%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4350	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002207	-3.58%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2547	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001892	-2.97%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3053	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001922	-3.24%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1696	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001819	-2.88%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0875	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.00189	-3.35%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0049	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002003	-4.03%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1057	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001872	-3.50%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2557	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002106	-4.77%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0668	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001945	-4.25%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0274	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.0017	-2.92%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1406	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001669	-2.80%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1685	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001552	-2.33%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2799	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001562	-2.41%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3347	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.00202	-4.68%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0191	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001908	-4.49%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1766	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002232	-6.31%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0820	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001331	-1.82%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2641	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.00133	-1.78%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2257	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001534	-2.48%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0168	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001624	-3.07%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0647	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001642	-3.20%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2655	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001684	-3.58%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1542	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001732	-3.92%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3138	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001969	-5.14%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3680	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001928	-5.19%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3111	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002142	-7.05%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2705	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002127	-8.12%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2106	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001437	-3.01%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1736	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001329	-2.24%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3294	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001495	-3.58%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2547	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001175	-1.88%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6034	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001199	-1.97%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5136	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001315	-2.54%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5725	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001379	-3.15%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5135	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001023	-1.70%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3414	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001026	-1.93%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2511	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001135	-2.01%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2784	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001032	-1.35%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0862	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001182	-1.87%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0148	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001294	-2.18%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0208	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001122	-1.93%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2432	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001076	-1.60%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0447	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000988538	-1.44%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0089	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001123	-1.44%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0006	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001369	-1.66%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2382	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001439	-1.55%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1805	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001515	-1.42%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1481	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001827	-1.53%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.4994	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001543	-0.79%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3742	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001803	-0.64%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6348	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001816	-0.11%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5695	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002204	-0.98%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5306	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002256	-0.79%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5114	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002464	-1.08%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5310	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002501	-1.02%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3461	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002298	-0.54%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4233	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002559	-1.01%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3258	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002678	-1.27%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3163	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003063	-1.45%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2604	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003224	-1.43%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2880	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003595	-1.86%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3014	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003732	-2.14%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3350	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004314	-4.32%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5678	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003846	-2.56%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3270	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003676	-2.20%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2419	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.00386	-2.86%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1694	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003482	-1.96%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0145	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003494	-2.01%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0513	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003285	-1.54%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1506	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004107	-4.56%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1071	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002907	-0.48%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2855	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002751	-0.01%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2861	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003365	-1.02%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1548	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002719	+0.38%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2592	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002575	+1.55%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3285	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002805	+1.63%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1751	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003453	+0.31%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2177	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003871	-0.08%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3078	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003899	-0.34%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.4004	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004208	-1.18%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4114	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004556	-1.81%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8403	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004945	-2.64%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0807	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005341	-4.07%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0424	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005135	-3.62%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6936	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005716	-6.18%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7282	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004355	-2.13%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2824	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004924	-3.26%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2897	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004075	-1.88%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1751	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004319	-2.06%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2004	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003999	-1.48%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3589	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003719	-1.49%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4130	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.00383	-1.44%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5057	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004218	-1.40%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0658	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005074	-1.77%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0007	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005307	-1.99%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2396	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005485	-2.23%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1993	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.0055	-2.28%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2569	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.00594	-2.66%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4088	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005817	-2.95%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3803	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006086	-3.34%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3052	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005755	-2.65%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0479	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004912	-2.07%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1575	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005861	-3.19%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0116	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006113	-3.92%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0685	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007667	-8.00%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2415	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006316	-4.24%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0256	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004251	-2.41%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3980	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004172	-2.54%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3253	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.