ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s9

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

76.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4660

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0684

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001293	-5.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001193	-5.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001197	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001091	-5.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001166	-5.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001206	-5.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001187	-5.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001026	-5.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001077	-5.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001065	-5.43%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001289	-5.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001279	-5.71%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001158	-5.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.00128	-5.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001365	-5.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001496	-4.38%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001574	-3.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.0016	-2.32%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001636	-3.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001697	-3.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001828	-3.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.0018	-3.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001732	-3.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001639	-3.68%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001858	-2.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001933	-2.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001967	-2.55%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002173	-3.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001905	-1.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002142	-0.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001761	+0.96%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1638	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001423	-5.11%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1623	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00172	-3.77%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3217	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001758	-3.98%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4511	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001519	-5.33%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3223	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001603	-5.24%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3432	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001591	-5.10%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3627	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001717	-4.73%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5234	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001812	-4.79%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5801	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001744	-4.58%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5254	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001871	-4.35%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4387	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001953	-4.29%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4901	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002099	-3.99%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6180	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002149	-4.03%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5388	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002216	-4.00%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5243	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002412	-5.26%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5570	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002358	-5.11%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5057	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002773	-8.32%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6841	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002851	-8.32%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.5993	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002205	-5.22%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3892	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002255	-5.35%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3476	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002467	-6.35%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3818	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002698	-8.44%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5319	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002402	-6.05%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4578	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.00206	-1.95%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2200	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002241	-3.36%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2079	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002124	-1.94%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1553	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001953	+0.84%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0234	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002199	-3.12%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2267	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002261	-4.19%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2070	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002491	-5.65%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5425	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002446	-5.26%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5464	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002746	-10.03%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6625	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002091	-8.63%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4105	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.0018	-7.68%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3958	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001822	-8.27%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3494	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001729	-7.68%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3333	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001787	-8.61%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3444	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001878	-10.01%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3141	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001768	-8.89%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2931	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001957	-11.47%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3340	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001819	-10.45%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1979	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001616	-7.73%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0438	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.00159	-7.40%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0217	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001486	-6.47%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1120	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001496	-6.58%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2098	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001882	-11.18%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0718	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001783	-10.74%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1975	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002038	-14.44%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0641	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001278	-5.78%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3207	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001276	-5.74%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3439	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001463	-7.01%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2407	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001539	-8.20%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3216	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001555	-8.31%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2176	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001588	-9.13%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0156	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001626	-9.81%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0219	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001825	-12.08%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1387	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001789	-12.06%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1939	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001944	-15.62%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1701	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001902	-17.82%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0542	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001368	-7.67%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3849	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001279	-5.96%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4190	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001418	-8.58%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6126	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001133	-5.41%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6138	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001155	-5.60%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5242	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001259	-6.66%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4630	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.00131	-7.98%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3824	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000983475	-5.53%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7043	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000984897	-5.84%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7911	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.00109	-5.87%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6123	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.00099121	-5.24%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7774	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001135	-5.83%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5864	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001238	-6.39%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3435	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001074	-6.15%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4548	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001029	-5.87%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3999	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000943979	-5.88%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4774	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001075	-5.64%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6615	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001314	-5.63%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.4089	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001382	-5.45%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5359	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001457	-5.24%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.0784	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001759	-5.16%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.2811	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001482	-4.69%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0371	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001734	-4.45%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.0943	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001745	-4.01%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1602	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002121	-4.73%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2630	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.00217	-4.56%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2678	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002369	-4.91%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2019	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002403	-4.90%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2648	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002206	-4.55%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0386	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002458	-4.90%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1121	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002574	-5.12%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.5916	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002953	-4.99%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8070	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003108	-4.99%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7455	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.00346	-5.53%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0752	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003584	-6.04%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0935	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004041	-10.38%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1299	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003677	-6.83%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9378	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003534	-5.99%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1840	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003687	-7.22%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2283	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003354	-5.58%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0496	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.00336	-5.79%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1233	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003167	-5.05%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9703	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003833	-10.91%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0680	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002791	-4.45%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9101	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002639	-4.08%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8916	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003219	-5.34%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1629	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002601	-3.99%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8258	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002462	-2.90%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5677	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002684	-2.75%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6058	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003308	-3.90%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7737	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003711	-4.21%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7087	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003743	-4.32%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9325	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004047	-4.96%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0813	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004374	-5.72%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3656	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004711	-7.24%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1870	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005004	-10.12%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2246	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004837	-9.21%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0870	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005217	-14.36%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2128	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004165	-6.40%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.9140	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004667	-8.31%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0177	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003895	-6.21%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1556	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004117	-6.64%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.1001	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003815	-6.01%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0227	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.00355	-5.96%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2198	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.00366	-5.83%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2406	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004039	-5.58%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3095	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004868	-5.75%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0325	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005084	-6.12%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1367	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005245	-6.51%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.1132	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005259	-6.55%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.2075	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005669	-7.12%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2336	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005525	-7.83%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2830	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005761	-8.49%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0558	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.0055	-6.97%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3476	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004723	-5.84%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2532	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005564	-8.09%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2465	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00576	-9.48%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5179	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.006841	-17.91%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7187	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005926	-10.16%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4757	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004064	-6.71%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0715	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003976	-7.13%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1947	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.