UMX

UMX · · lstm_s8

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

83.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0664

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0354

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.040878	-2.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038263	-2.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041866	-2.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053871	-2.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054165	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054536	-2.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057502	-2.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057443	-2.71%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3243	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.057629	-2.88%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.3905	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.057712	-2.87%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.2956	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.058443	-3.27%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0584	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.058286	-3.19%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0436	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.05856	-3.48%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0409	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.058752	-3.60%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0103	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.058331	-3.63%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0104	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.05951	-3.74%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0045	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.059619	-3.40%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0083	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.059424	-3.67%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0363	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.059402	-3.74%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0277	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.058964	-3.96%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0375	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.059255	-3.96%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0379	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059207	-3.70%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0383	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059143	-3.66%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0457	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.059085	-3.47%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0340	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.058557	-3.40%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0405	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.058711	-3.34%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0389	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.058963	-3.43%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0386	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.05879	-3.49%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0460	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059018	-3.52%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0383	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.058992	-3.56%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0446	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.058662	-3.41%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0590	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.059044	-3.48%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0471	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.058959	-4.03%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0078	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.058093	-3.91%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0280	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.058895	-4.03%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0116	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058572	-4.22%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0081	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.059379	-4.24%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0233	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.058426	-4.00%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0277	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.058272	-3.71%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0187	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.058543	-3.67%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0134	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.06027	-3.71%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0293	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.062536	-3.86%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0490	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.062627	-3.74%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0223	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.062624	-3.45%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0112	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064161	-3.51%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0239	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.065672	-3.52%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0722	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.06746	-3.53%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0646	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069257	-3.64%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0684	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.069475	-3.60%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0344	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.070799	-3.19%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0246	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071433	-3.78%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1091	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.071706	-3.60%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0889	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.072483	-3.29%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0696	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073243	-3.36%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0801	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.072851	-3.03%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0337	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074036	-3.00%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0502	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.075268	-2.20%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0411	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.080087	-2.54%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0538	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.081425	-2.54%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0760	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.086593	-2.39%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1391	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.084467	-2.60%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1076	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.084387	-2.68%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1314	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081735	-2.07%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0622	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.079828	-3.54%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1314	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.081357	-4.13%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1214	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.081238	-4.37%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1659	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.080993	-4.32%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1119	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.080847	-4.28%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1426	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.