TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s8
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
47.6%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4197
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0017
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001658 | -2.50% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001652 | -2.15% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001646 | -1.84% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001579 | -1.11% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.00121 | -0.29% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001308 | -0.21% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001331 | -0.27% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001445 | -0.14% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1374 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001503 | -0.12% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.0862 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.00156 | -0.17% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0741 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001743 | +0.06% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0887 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002228 | -0.28% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5877 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002285 | -0.21% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5368 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002703 | -0.71% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6925 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002248 | +0.06% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4460 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002571 | -0.11% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5149 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002263 | +0.05% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3412 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002418 | +0.16% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2800 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003091 | +0.16% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2915 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003162 | +0.19% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.3010 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003968 | -0.18% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3534 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003764 | +0.05% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4780 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003846 | -0.00% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3982 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003946 | +0.04% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5788 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.005004 | -0.33% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7561 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005542 | -0.30% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.6095 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006215 | -0.58% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6815 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007071 | -1.29% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5808 | ✓ | 1.00 |