TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s8
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +1d
assessed
27
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
63.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1077
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0009
actual -0.0500
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.00169 | -0.56% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.00168 | -0.47% | 0.0017 | +0.71% | 0.0156 | ✗ | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001671 | -0.38% | 0.001688 | +0.66% | 0.0325 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001594 | -0.20% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0749 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001212 | -0.06% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2721 | ✗ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001311 | -0.03% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0646 | ✓ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001334 | -0.05% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0200 | ✓ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001447 | -0.02% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0727 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001505 | -0.02% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0459 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001562 | -0.04% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0188 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001742 | +0.02% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1251 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002233 | -0.05% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2249 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002289 | -0.03% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0335 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002718 | -0.14% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1760 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002248 | +0.04% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1810 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002574 | +0.00% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1167 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002263 | +0.03% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1558 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002415 | +0.04% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0630 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003087 | +0.02% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2370 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003157 | +0.03% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0433 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003972 | -0.07% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2328 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003761 | -0.02% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0593 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003845 | -0.03% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0371 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003943 | -0.03% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0239 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.005014 | -0.13% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2423 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005551 | -0.15% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0884 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006237 | -0.22% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1156 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007135 | -0.39% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1361 | ✓ | 1.00 |