ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s8

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

63.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2424

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0175

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001354	-1.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001241	-1.36%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001246	-1.38%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001134	-1.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001213	-1.33%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001259	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.00124	-1.43%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001073	-0.94%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2239	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001129	-1.34%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1121	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001115	-1.03%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1228	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001348	-1.33%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1281	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001339	-1.33%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0541	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001214	-1.32%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0717	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001338	-1.23%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0703	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001428	-1.18%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2421	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001548	-1.01%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2549	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001616	-0.97%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2795	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001623	-0.88%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1132	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001681	-0.99%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1749	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001741	-1.00%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3056	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001868	-1.06%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2551	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001852	-1.15%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2420	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001779	-1.04%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1672	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001685	-1.00%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0778	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001886	-1.00%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1836	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001961	-1.10%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1509	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001994	-1.20%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1340	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002215	-1.90%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1695	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001915	-1.00%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0040	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002134	-1.13%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1176	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001734	-0.59%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0490	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.00148	-1.30%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1800	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001766	-1.15%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0474	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.00181	-1.14%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0379	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.00159	-0.96%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1775	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001675	-1.00%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0304	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001663	-0.79%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0581	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001787	-0.89%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1754	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001887	-0.86%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3136	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001816	-0.67%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.0943	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001943	-0.65%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1313	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002027	-0.68%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2294	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.00217	-0.73%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2051	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002221	-0.81%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2110	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002286	-0.94%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2158	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.0025	-1.82%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1839	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002442	-1.70%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2268	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002926	-3.25%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3427	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003006	-3.33%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2713	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002285	-1.78%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0672	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002335	-1.99%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0665	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002566	-2.59%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1175	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002844	-3.50%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1682	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002495	-2.44%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0395	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.00209	-0.50%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3289	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002299	-0.87%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2812	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002157	-0.39%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1121	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001946	+0.46%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2267	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002249	-0.93%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1660	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002321	-1.65%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2401	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002572	-2.57%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0301	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.00252	-2.39%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1719	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002903	-4.89%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4316	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002209	-3.51%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2554	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001893	-2.90%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3061	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001924	-3.12%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1708	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001819	-2.91%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0873	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001892	-3.23%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0037	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.00201	-3.70%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1091	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001876	-3.32%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2538	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002119	-4.17%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0731	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001953	-3.86%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0314	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.0017	-2.89%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1402	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.00167	-2.75%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1680	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001553	-2.28%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2794	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001563	-2.35%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3341	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002032	-4.09%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0252	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001918	-4.02%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1717	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002252	-5.45%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0911	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.00133	-1.89%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2649	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001328	-1.89%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2268	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001533	-2.57%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0159	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001625	-3.02%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0652	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001644	-3.05%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2640	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001689	-3.32%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1515	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001739	-3.53%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3098	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001984	-4.41%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3756	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001944	-4.43%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3191	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.00217	-5.81%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2837	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.00216	-6.68%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2262	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.00144	-2.81%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1716	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001327	-2.43%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3312	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.0015	-3.28%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2516	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001172	-2.18%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6065	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001196	-2.25%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5165	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001315	-2.55%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5726	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001385	-2.74%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5092	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001023	-1.73%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3417	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001028	-1.77%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2495	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001135	-1.98%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2780	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001038	-0.78%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0805	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001187	-1.45%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0105	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001303	-1.53%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0142	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001134	-0.91%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2329	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001092	-0.10%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0598	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001009	+0.56%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0113	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001145	+0.51%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0190	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001393	+0.06%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2555	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001467	+0.32%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1994	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001546	+0.58%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1682	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001852	-0.19%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5129	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001579	+1.56%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3977	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.00183	+0.84%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6496	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001842	+1.30%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5836	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002223	-0.12%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5393	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002273	-0.04%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5189	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002485	-0.26%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5392	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002521	-0.23%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3541	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002315	+0.15%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4303	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.00258	-0.17%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3342	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002705	-0.30%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3261	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003089	-0.63%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2687	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003248	-0.71%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2952	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003615	-1.32%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3068	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003753	-1.60%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3406	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.00434	-3.74%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5739	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003872	-1.90%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3337	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003702	-1.53%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2488	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.00389	-2.12%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1770	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003513	-1.11%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0232	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003529	-1.05%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0415	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003316	-0.61%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1412	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004163	-3.26%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0936	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002933	+0.42%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2765	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002778	+0.97%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2764	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003395	-0.14%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1460	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.00275	+1.51%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2479	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.0026	+2.53%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3189	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002822	+2.25%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1690	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.00346	+0.53%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2156	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003873	-0.03%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3083	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003898	-0.36%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.4002	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004184	-1.75%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4056	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004538	-2.20%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8362	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004941	-2.72%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0798	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005374	-3.48%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0485	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005154	-3.26%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6973	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005816	-4.52%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7457	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.00435	-2.26%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2812	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004945	-2.85%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2939	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004071	-1.97%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1759	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004317	-2.11%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2008	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003994	-1.61%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3603	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003732	-1.15%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4096	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003836	-1.29%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5042	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004208	-1.64%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0683	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.00506	-2.03%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0019	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005295	-2.21%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2374	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005477	-2.37%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1979	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005495	-2.36%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2562	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005941	-2.65%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4090	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005825	-2.82%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3817	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006101	-3.10%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3077	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005757	-2.63%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0481	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004914	-2.03%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1571	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005878	-2.91%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0145	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006145	-3.42%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0738	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007793	-6.49%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2578	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.00634	-3.89%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0293	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004262	-2.16%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3955	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004184	-2.26%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3224	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.