ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s8

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

59.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4859

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0269

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001547	+0.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001559	+0.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001269	+0.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001271	+0.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001152	+0.29%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001232	+0.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001279	+0.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001261	+0.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.00108	-0.33%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001145	+0.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001124	-0.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001376	+0.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001364	+0.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.00123	-0.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001357	+0.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001453	+0.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001579	+0.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001649	+1.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001656	+1.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001715	+0.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001771	+0.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001891	+0.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001872	-0.09%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001798	+0.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001704	+0.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001898	-0.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001971	-0.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002002	-0.77%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002219	-1.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.00193	-0.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002155	-0.15%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.2940	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001753	+0.49%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0684	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001512	+0.80%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.2226	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001785	-0.10%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3592	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001826	-0.28%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4888	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001611	+0.40%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3811	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001695	+0.18%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3989	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001677	+0.09%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.4158	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001796	-0.37%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5681	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001886	-0.92%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.6200	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001813	-0.80%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5641	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001924	-1.66%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4664	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001988	-2.56%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.5081	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002107	-3.60%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6220	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002154	-3.83%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5409	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002216	-4.00%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5243	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00244	-4.15%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5686	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002384	-4.05%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5168	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002927	-3.23%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7381	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003045	-2.07%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6652	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002229	-4.18%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.4001	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002297	-3.56%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3664	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002575	-2.23%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.4248	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002886	-2.07%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5991	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002514	-1.67%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.5034	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002095	-0.30%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2367	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002335	+0.67%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2487	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002195	+1.33%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1882	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001992	+2.84%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0038	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002308	+1.66%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2748	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002386	+1.12%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2609	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002661	+0.81%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.6088	✗	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002615	+1.29%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.6132	✗	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002912	-4.58%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.7213	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.00219	-4.33%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4565	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001876	-3.81%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.4370	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.0019	-4.34%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3914	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001791	-4.36%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3687	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001856	-5.08%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3823	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001959	-6.13%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3562	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001841	-5.13%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.3336	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002058	-6.90%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3844	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.00191	-5.94%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2470	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001687	-3.67%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0869	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001651	-3.87%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0158	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001538	-3.21%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.0777	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001552	-3.06%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.1728	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001977	-6.69%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.1212	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001882	-5.80%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1436	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002189	-8.09%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0075	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001325	-2.26%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.2841	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001322	-2.38%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3090	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001515	-3.67%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2054	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001602	-4.40%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.2810	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001634	-3.68%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.1683	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001668	-4.54%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0648	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001711	-5.12%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0287	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001916	-7.72%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1870	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001903	-6.42%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2561	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002085	-9.49%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.2402	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.00208	-10.17%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.1432	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001441	-2.78%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3333	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001337	-1.70%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.3747	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001515	-2.35%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5467	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.00118	-1.48%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.5731	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001202	-1.70%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.4837	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001321	-2.04%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4147	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001386	-2.65%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3261	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.00102	-2.02%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6679	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001025	-2.03%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7514	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001137	-1.84%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5703	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001016	-2.85%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7525	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001179	-2.19%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5485	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001295	-2.08%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.2985	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.00111	-2.99%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4217	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00105	-3.90%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3792	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000938757	-6.41%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4829	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001087	-4.53%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6498	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001361	-2.23%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3735	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001431	-2.15%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5016	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001506	-2.00%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1120	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001849	-0.33%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3307	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001516	-2.51%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0144	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001856	+2.24%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1620	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001869	+2.80%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.2287	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002273	+2.09%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.3322	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002321	+2.07%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.3350	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.00254	+1.98%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2718	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002573	+1.83%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.3332	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002349	+1.65%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.1014	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002626	+1.59%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1782	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002709	-0.14%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6427	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003091	-0.53%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8528	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003244	-0.83%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7884	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003585	-2.13%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.1106	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.00372	-2.47%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1308	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004205	-6.73%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1697	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003818	-3.28%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9752	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003669	-2.40%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.2215	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003836	-3.47%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2680	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003493	-1.66%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0903	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003515	-1.44%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1685	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003343	+0.22%	0.001205	-63.88%	1.0244	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004069	-5.43%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.1278	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.003	+2.69%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9821	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.00284	+3.22%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9649	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003405	+0.15%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.2192	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002761	+1.93%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8856	✗	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002649	+4.45%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.6408	✗	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002858	+3.56%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6687	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003426	-0.47%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.8088	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003815	-1.53%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7363	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003825	-2.22%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9542	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004125	-3.11%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.1005	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004455	-3.98%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3839	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004807	-5.35%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.2072	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005178	-7.01%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2587	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004983	-6.48%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.1167	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005598	-8.10%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2833	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.00429	-3.59%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.9436	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004842	-4.86%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0547	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004034	-2.86%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1907	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004256	-3.49%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.1333	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003932	-3.12%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0076	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003674	-2.68%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.1856	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003776	-2.83%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2093	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004141	-3.21%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.2847	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004942	-4.31%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0476	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005156	-4.79%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1507	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005323	-5.11%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.1281	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005351	-4.92%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.2248	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005799	-4.98%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2564	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005653	-5.68%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.3060	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005938	-5.69%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0860	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005657	-4.31%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3758	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004851	-3.29%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2800	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005759	-4.87%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2809	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006016	-5.46%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5614	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007501	-10.00%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.8107	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006282	-4.76%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5340	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004229	-2.91%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0315	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004151	-3.03%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1516	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.