ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s7

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

65.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2402

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0262

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001346	-2.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001235	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.00124	-1.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00113	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001208	-1.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001254	-1.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001237	-1.71%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001073	-0.93%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2238	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001129	-1.28%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1116	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001116	-0.91%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1216	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001342	-1.76%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1237	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001334	-1.71%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0503	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001213	-1.41%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0727	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001332	-1.64%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0661	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.00142	-1.77%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2361	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001536	-1.82%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2468	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001602	-1.82%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2708	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001608	-1.79%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1039	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001667	-1.83%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1664	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001727	-1.84%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2971	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001852	-1.90%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2466	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001837	-1.96%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2337	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001764	-1.88%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1586	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001671	-1.85%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0693	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001868	-1.93%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1742	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001943	-2.00%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1418	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001977	-2.05%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1254	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002202	-2.49%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1634	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001898	-1.85%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0046	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002117	-1.93%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1094	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001717	-1.56%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0588	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001477	-1.52%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1822	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001755	-1.81%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0541	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001798	-1.83%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0448	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.00159	-0.94%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1773	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001672	-1.16%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0288	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001662	-0.84%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0586	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001776	-1.47%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1695	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.00187	-1.72%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3048	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001802	-1.43%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.0866	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001916	-2.04%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1172	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.00199	-2.49%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2110	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002125	-2.79%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.1842	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002175	-2.87%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.1900	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.00224	-2.96%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.1952	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002467	-3.08%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1709	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002408	-3.08%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2126	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002908	-3.84%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3365	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002988	-3.91%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2654	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002254	-3.07%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0539	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002308	-3.09%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0552	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002548	-3.28%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1104	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.00283	-3.96%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1634	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002476	-3.16%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0321	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002042	-2.82%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3524	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002259	-2.57%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2986	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002108	-2.67%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1352	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001886	-2.65%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2581	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002208	-2.73%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1843	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.00229	-2.99%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2537	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002548	-3.47%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0208	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002497	-3.31%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1625	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002916	-4.46%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4360	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002209	-3.48%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2557	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001887	-3.22%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3027	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001921	-3.28%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1692	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001812	-3.24%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0839	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.00189	-3.33%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0047	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002012	-3.59%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1103	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001875	-3.37%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2543	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002122	-4.01%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0748	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001957	-3.63%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0338	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001694	-3.23%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1437	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001661	-3.23%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1730	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001538	-3.20%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2889	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001549	-3.24%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3433	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002034	-4.03%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0259	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001921	-3.83%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1697	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002261	-5.10%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0948	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001318	-2.78%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2740	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001315	-2.88%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2370	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001521	-3.31%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0082	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001618	-3.48%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0604	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001636	-3.53%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2690	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001682	-3.71%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1556	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001732	-3.93%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3139	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001973	-4.97%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3698	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001935	-4.88%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3143	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002161	-6.20%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2796	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002161	-6.67%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2263	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001435	-3.18%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1754	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001323	-2.72%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3343	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001498	-3.44%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2533	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001171	-2.29%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6076	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001194	-2.35%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5176	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001312	-2.73%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5744	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.00138	-3.06%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5126	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001022	-1.79%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3423	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001026	-1.95%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2513	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001134	-2.08%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2791	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001025	-2.03%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0931	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.00118	-2.06%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0167	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001295	-2.10%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0200	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001111	-2.86%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2528	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00105	-3.98%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0202	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000942372	-6.04%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0567	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.00108	-5.17%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0392	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001352	-2.89%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2256	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001422	-2.73%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1684	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.0015	-2.42%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1378	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001847	-0.41%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5106	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001513	-2.73%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3545	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001826	+0.60%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6472	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001836	+0.99%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5805	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002225	-0.03%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5402	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002277	+0.12%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5205	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002474	-0.68%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5350	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.00251	-0.67%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3497	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002315	+0.16%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4304	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.00256	-0.96%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3263	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002672	-1.50%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3141	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003048	-1.95%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2553	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003202	-2.11%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2810	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003563	-2.72%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2926	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003699	-3.01%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3261	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004322	-4.16%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5695	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003818	-3.26%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3198	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003647	-2.98%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2339	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003841	-3.35%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1644	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003457	-2.67%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0073	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003471	-2.66%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0579	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003277	-1.76%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1528	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004109	-4.51%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1066	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002934	+0.45%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2762	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002777	+0.92%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2769	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003387	-0.38%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1484	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002737	+1.05%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2525	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002567	+1.21%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3318	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002794	+1.23%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1790	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003453	+0.31%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2177	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003834	-1.02%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2983	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003852	-1.54%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3882	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004142	-2.74%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3955	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004496	-3.11%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8270	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004904	-3.44%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0724	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005345	-4.00%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0431	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005124	-3.83%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6914	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005794	-4.90%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7418	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004317	-2.98%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2737	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004909	-3.55%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2867	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004057	-2.32%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1796	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004288	-2.77%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2077	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003986	-1.79%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3621	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003717	-1.54%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4135	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003815	-1.83%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5097	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.00417	-2.52%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0772	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005002	-3.15%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0135	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005238	-3.27%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2265	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005421	-3.37%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1876	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005437	-3.39%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2455	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005888	-3.53%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3999	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005778	-3.61%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3735	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006059	-3.76%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3009	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.0057	-3.58%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0383	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004843	-3.44%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1716	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005824	-3.80%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0053	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006103	-4.08%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0669	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007841	-5.92%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2639	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006309	-4.35%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0245	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004203	-3.51%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4093	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004126	-3.62%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3365	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.