ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s6

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

64.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2382

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0242

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.00133	-3.21%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001225	-2.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.00123	-2.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001128	-1.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001203	-2.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001248	-2.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001235	-1.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001088	+0.42%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2103	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001143	-0.08%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.0995	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001134	+0.69%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1055	✓	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001346	-1.50%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1264	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001341	-1.21%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0553	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001234	+0.30%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0555	✓	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001345	-0.74%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0753	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001426	-1.33%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2406	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001544	-1.27%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2523	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.00161	-1.30%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2761	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.00162	-1.04%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1116	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001672	-1.56%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1692	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001728	-1.74%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2981	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001849	-2.06%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2450	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001832	-2.24%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2309	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001763	-1.92%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1582	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001674	-1.67%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0711	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001868	-1.95%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1740	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.00194	-2.16%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1401	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001973	-2.25%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1233	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002192	-2.91%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1590	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.0019	-1.77%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0038	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.00212	-1.79%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1108	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001731	-0.72%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0503	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001491	-0.61%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1730	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00176	-1.51%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0511	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001804	-1.50%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0415	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.00161	+0.31%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1648	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001694	+0.11%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0415	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001688	+0.73%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0429	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001802	-0.00%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1843	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001888	-0.78%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3144	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001832	+0.20%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1030	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00193	-1.31%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1247	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001999	-2.01%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2158	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002131	-2.51%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.1871	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.00218	-2.67%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.1920	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002243	-2.82%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.1966	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002459	-3.41%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1675	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002401	-3.34%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2099	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002883	-4.68%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3278	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002961	-4.76%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2564	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002253	-3.16%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0530	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002307	-3.15%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0546	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.00254	-3.58%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1073	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002816	-4.46%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1582	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.00247	-3.39%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0297	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002052	-2.32%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3474	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002262	-2.45%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2973	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002118	-2.22%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1305	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001955	+0.92%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2221	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002214	-2.45%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1815	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002293	-2.85%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2523	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002545	-3.59%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0196	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002494	-3.42%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1613	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002907	-4.75%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4330	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002199	-3.95%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2509	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001879	-3.62%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2985	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001911	-3.78%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1639	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001803	-3.74%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0787	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001878	-3.95%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0111	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001996	-4.35%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1024	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001863	-3.99%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2608	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002105	-4.81%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0664	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001942	-4.39%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0259	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001686	-3.69%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1485	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001655	-3.60%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1767	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001534	-3.45%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2915	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001544	-3.53%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3463	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002018	-4.76%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0182	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001907	-4.56%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1774	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002221	-6.74%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0774	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001315	-3.04%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2767	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001312	-3.12%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2394	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001515	-3.72%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0040	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001608	-4.07%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0543	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001628	-4.04%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2743	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00167	-4.42%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1629	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001717	-4.74%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3224	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001946	-6.29%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3558	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001913	-5.97%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3029	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002105	-8.64%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2532	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002085	-9.93%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.1908	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001425	-3.86%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1824	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001314	-3.36%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3408	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001488	-4.09%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2600	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001162	-2.98%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6147	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001186	-3.05%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5247	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001303	-3.41%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5814	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.00137	-3.82%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5204	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001025	-1.49%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3393	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001032	-1.31%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2448	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001136	-1.88%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2771	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001046	+0.03%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0724	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001191	-1.20%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0080	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001302	-1.61%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0151	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001149	+0.41%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2197	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001111	+1.67%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0773	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001033	+3.01%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0353	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001164	+2.23%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0360	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001404	+0.87%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2636	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001477	+1.02%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2063	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001555	+1.19%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1742	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001853	-0.11%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5137	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001593	+2.45%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.4063	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001846	+1.72%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6582	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001863	+2.49%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5953	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002229	+0.14%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5419	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002286	+0.51%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5244	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002476	-0.62%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5356	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002514	-0.50%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3514	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002338	+1.15%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4402	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002562	-0.88%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3271	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002658	-2.04%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3086	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.00302	-2.84%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2462	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003171	-3.06%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2713	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003534	-3.53%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2842	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003667	-3.85%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3174	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004243	-5.91%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5511	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003781	-4.21%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3100	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003615	-3.83%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2251	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.0038	-4.39%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1536	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003428	-3.50%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0013	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003441	-3.50%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0666	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003248	-2.62%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1617	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004015	-6.70%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1297	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002941	+0.70%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2738	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002808	+2.07%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2656	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003381	-0.56%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1503	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002791	+3.02%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2332	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002645	+4.30%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3018	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002874	+4.14%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1506	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003491	+1.43%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2066	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.00386	-0.37%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3049	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003866	-1.17%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3920	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004128	-3.06%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3921	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004466	-3.75%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8203	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004853	-4.45%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0618	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005263	-5.48%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0276	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005057	-5.09%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6783	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005667	-6.98%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7197	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004298	-3.41%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2693	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004869	-4.33%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2785	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004053	-2.40%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1803	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004279	-2.96%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2096	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00401	-1.20%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3561	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003768	-0.18%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.3998	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003863	-0.59%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4972	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004193	-1.98%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0717	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004995	-3.30%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0150	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005223	-3.54%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2237	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005402	-3.70%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1842	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005421	-3.68%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2425	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005868	-3.85%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3965	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005752	-4.04%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3690	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006031	-4.21%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2961	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005685	-3.84%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0356	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004846	-3.38%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1710	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005803	-4.15%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0016	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006074	-4.54%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0621	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007658	-8.11%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2403	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006271	-4.93%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0184	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004221	-3.10%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4051	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004146	-3.15%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3316	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.