ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s6

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

73.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4637

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0579

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001458	-5.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.00146	-5.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001221	-2.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001225	-3.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001122	-2.33%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001196	-2.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001238	-3.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001222	-2.83%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001062	-1.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.00112	-2.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001105	-1.87%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.00133	-2.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001323	-2.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001206	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001324	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.00141	-2.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001525	-2.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.00159	-2.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001602	-2.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.00165	-2.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001703	-3.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001815	-3.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001797	-4.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001734	-3.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001651	-3.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001835	-3.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001901	-4.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.00193	-4.38%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002129	-5.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001863	-3.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002087	-3.32%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.2618	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001728	-0.93%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0542	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001462	-2.55%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1889	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00172	-3.77%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3218	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001756	-4.08%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4500	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001558	-2.94%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3474	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001637	-3.25%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3640	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001626	-2.96%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3850	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001742	-3.37%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5375	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001827	-3.99%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5884	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.00177	-3.18%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5398	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001882	-3.76%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4448	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001951	-4.39%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4892	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002084	-4.64%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6111	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002138	-4.54%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5335	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002212	-4.14%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5227	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002423	-4.82%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5616	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002381	-4.18%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5154	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002799	-7.45%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6936	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002887	-7.15%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6120	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002244	-3.51%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.4070	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002316	-2.78%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3744	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002563	-2.69%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.4201	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002756	-6.49%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5529	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002532	-0.98%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.5104	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.00216	+2.81%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2675	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002439	+5.17%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2924	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.00228	+5.25%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.2261	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.002062	+6.43%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0306	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002397	+5.61%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.3129	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002427	+2.85%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2778	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002586	-2.05%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5800	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002613	+1.21%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.6123	✗	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002802	-8.21%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6826	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002146	-6.23%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4364	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001818	-6.76%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.4059	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001847	-7.01%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3631	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001739	-7.15%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3391	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.00181	-7.43%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3572	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001916	-8.21%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3338	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001795	-7.50%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.3083	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002005	-9.33%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3579	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001861	-8.36%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2210	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001628	-7.02%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0514	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001603	-6.62%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0133	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001496	-5.85%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1053	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001508	-5.82%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2016	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001933	-8.80%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0983	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001836	-8.11%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1684	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002074	-12.94%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0467	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.0013	-4.15%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3036	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001301	-3.95%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3251	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001473	-6.34%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2335	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001557	-7.11%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3098	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001584	-6.59%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.1990	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00162	-7.28%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0357	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001662	-7.83%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0002	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001856	-10.59%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1555	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001841	-9.49%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2228	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001968	-14.57%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1824	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001937	-16.32%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0723	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001393	-6.01%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3671	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001298	-4.54%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4039	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001452	-6.37%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5887	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001155	-3.58%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.5946	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001177	-3.73%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5045	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001287	-4.59%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4410	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001346	-5.45%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3552	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001011	-2.91%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6771	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001017	-2.78%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7591	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001123	-3.05%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5827	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001019	-2.57%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7496	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001169	-2.96%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5564	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.00128	-3.26%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3106	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001115	-2.50%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4167	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00107	-2.11%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3607	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000985712	-1.72%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4341	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001119	-1.72%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6208	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001366	-1.90%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3701	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001435	-1.85%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4986	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001509	-1.82%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1138	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001814	-2.22%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3116	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001533	-1.43%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0035	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001783	-1.78%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1219	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001791	-1.51%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1859	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002175	-2.27%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2885	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002225	-2.17%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2926	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002431	-2.42%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2277	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002469	-2.28%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2919	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002271	-1.74%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0675	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002532	-2.06%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1415	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002654	-2.17%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6221	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003026	-2.64%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8313	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003166	-3.20%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7641	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003423	-6.55%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0644	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003481	-8.72%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0645	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.003914	-13.20%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.0979	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003516	-10.91%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.8930	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003411	-9.25%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1488	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003522	-11.36%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.1826	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003295	-7.24%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0319	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003303	-7.37%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1064	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003159	-5.31%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9676	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.00364	-15.42%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0161	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.00282	-3.47%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9203	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002677	-2.71%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9057	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003248	-4.48%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1719	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002649	-2.22%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8440	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002493	-1.68%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5802	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002715	-1.63%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6173	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003356	-2.51%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7881	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003739	-3.49%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7161	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003748	-4.20%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9337	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003921	-7.91%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0497	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00423	-8.84%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3321	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004586	-9.71%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1600	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.00495	-11.09%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2138	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004743	-10.98%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0673	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.0053	-13.00%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2285	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004042	-9.18%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8839	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004569	-10.23%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9966	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003827	-7.85%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1380	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004028	-8.66%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0782	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00377	-7.12%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0345	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003573	-5.36%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2135	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003671	-5.52%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2374	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003993	-6.67%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3212	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004722	-8.57%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0021	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004928	-8.99%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1055	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005088	-9.31%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0829	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005107	-9.25%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1782	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.00551	-9.72%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2052	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005375	-10.33%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2555	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005612	-10.87%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0295	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005322	-9.98%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3147	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004601	-8.28%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2270	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005401	-10.79%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2167	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00561	-11.83%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.4916	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.006887	-17.36%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7254	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005731	-13.12%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4422	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004003	-8.11%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0865	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003946	-7.82%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2023	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.