UMX

UMX · · lstm_s5

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

83.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0673

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0286

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.04067	-2.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038148	-3.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041619	-3.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053478	-3.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.053939	-2.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054349	-2.69%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057414	-2.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057321	-2.92%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3222	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.057554	-3.01%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.3892	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.057628	-3.02%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.2942	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.058561	-3.08%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0604	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.058374	-3.04%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0451	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.058786	-3.11%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0447	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059036	-3.13%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0054	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.058655	-3.10%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0048	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.059959	-3.02%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0030	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060007	-2.77%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0018	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.059982	-2.77%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0270	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060067	-2.66%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0166	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.059611	-2.91%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0266	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.059882	-2.95%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0273	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059773	-2.78%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0288	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059609	-2.90%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0379	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.05952	-2.76%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0267	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.058955	-2.74%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0337	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.0591	-2.70%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0323	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.05936	-2.78%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0319	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059198	-2.82%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0391	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059432	-2.84%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0313	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.059396	-2.90%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0378	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059104	-2.69%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0515	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.059545	-2.66%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0387	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.059386	-3.33%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0006	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.058451	-3.32%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0219	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.059251	-3.45%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0056	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058918	-3.65%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0140	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.059693	-3.74%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0286	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.058733	-3.50%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0329	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.058495	-3.35%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0225	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.058894	-3.10%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0074	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.060709	-3.01%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0366	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.063123	-2.95%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0584	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.063376	-2.59%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0342	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.063318	-2.38%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0002	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064937	-2.34%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0359	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066425	-2.41%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0836	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.068119	-2.59%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0743	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069825	-2.85%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0766	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.069913	-2.99%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0407	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.070769	-3.23%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0242	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071781	-3.31%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1139	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.071946	-3.27%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0923	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.072515	-3.25%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0700	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073406	-3.15%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0824	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.072903	-2.96%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0344	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074121	-2.89%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0514	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.07474	-2.89%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0340	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.079591	-3.14%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0476	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.080961	-3.10%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0703	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.085706	-3.39%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1288	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.084065	-3.06%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1028	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.084222	-2.87%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1294	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081396	-2.47%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0580	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081179	-1.91%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1482	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083546	-1.55%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1479	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084143	-0.95%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.2010	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.084123	-0.62%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1498	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084325	-0.16%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1847	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.