UMX

UMX · · lstm_s5

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +30d

assessed

38

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2100

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0565

actual -0.2663

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.039959	-4.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.037547	-4.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041533	-3.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.05446	-1.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054694	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055146	-1.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.05833	-1.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058501	-0.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058945	-0.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059147	-0.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060029	-0.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059963	-0.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060302	-0.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060471	-0.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059961	-0.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061228	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061396	-0.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061354	-0.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061412	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.0607	-1.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060761	-1.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060468	-1.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060049	-2.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.059763	-2.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059177	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059337	-2.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059541	-2.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059443	-2.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059718	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.059661	-2.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059505	-2.02%	0.041845	-31.10%	0.3394	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060015	-1.89%	0.03934	-35.69%	0.4053	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.059328	-3.43%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.3358	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.058367	-3.46%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0609	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.059007	-3.85%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0709	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058083	-5.02%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0720	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.058677	-5.37%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0280	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.057554	-5.43%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0164	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.057481	-5.02%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0039	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.05754	-5.32%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0175	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.059133	-5.53%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0150	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.061208	-5.90%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0690	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.061214	-5.91%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0602	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.061225	-5.61%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0449	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.062589	-5.87%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0650	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.063931	-6.07%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0756	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.065479	-6.37%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.1146	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.067153	-6.57%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1564	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.067228	-6.72%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.1679	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.068881	-5.81%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.1570	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.069255	-6.71%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.2045	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.069697	-6.30%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2173	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.070488	-5.95%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.1998	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.071131	-6.15%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2243	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.070762	-5.81%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2194	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.071882	-5.83%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2501	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.073059	-5.07%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2297	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.077693	-5.45%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.3054	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.078957	-5.50%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3272	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.083945	-5.37%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3826	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.081814	-5.66%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.4013	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.081766	-5.70%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.4069	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.079197	-5.11%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2895	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.077796	-6.00%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3588	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.07937	-6.47%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.4117	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.079167	-6.81%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.4241	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.079008	-6.67%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.4086	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.078866	-6.62%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.4439	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.