BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s5

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 594

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

168

of 198 predictions shown

direction hit

72.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2359

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0976

actual -0.0915

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.054285	0.051823	-4.53%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.054325	0.052758	-2.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048868	-2.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046406	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048291	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052408	-1.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054828	-2.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043705	-2.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.042758	-2.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046537	-2.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.052974	-3.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.063182	-4.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.064743	-4.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.06523	-4.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.063127	-4.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.064371	-4.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.064112	-4.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.059456	-4.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.059858	-4.10%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.059508	-3.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.060815	-3.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.06319	-3.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064031	-3.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065113	-2.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065287	-2.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.068875	-2.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.068789	-3.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.066796	-3.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.065024	-2.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.062272	-2.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.068536	-0.57%	0.054285	-21.24%	0.2200	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068224	+0.06%	0.054325	-20.32%	0.2070	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.063989	-3.26%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2584	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.06331	-3.36%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.2950	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.062763	-3.71%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2595	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.059468	-4.79%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1505	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.058519	-4.72%	0.056	-8.82%	0.0831	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.05967	-5.59%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3245	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.059633	-4.81%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3257	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.058836	-4.84%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2391	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.060878	-4.92%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1309	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.061217	-4.71%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0431	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.057608	-4.92%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1345	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.059149	-4.49%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.1264	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.064211	-5.11%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0062	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06428	-4.69%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0220	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.064462	-4.37%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0082	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.065551	-4.66%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.0911	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.065695	-4.31%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.0981	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.067277	-3.38%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1071	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.063402	-5.75%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.0562	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.063382	-6.05%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0218	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.064678	-5.41%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0038	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.063546	-6.33%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0117	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.065958	-6.58%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.0149	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.066984	-6.29%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0149	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.070777	-3.39%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.0210	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.068975	-4.49%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.0276	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.065161	-5.58%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.0097	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.068994	-4.54%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.1128	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.069489	-5.39%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.0640	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.070045	-5.90%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.0905	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.088055	-3.16%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3025	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.077727	-7.66%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2113	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.072435	-10.29%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.1781	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.069399	-12.13%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.1890	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.06805	-12.10%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.1907	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.068101	-12.67%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.1769	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.069049	-13.44%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2160	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.065547	-12.71%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.1698	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.065816	-12.68%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1371	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.066889	-12.61%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.1711	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.06755	-11.88%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2266	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.068086	-11.97%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2410	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.065694	-11.29%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1064	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.068156	-11.73%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.1508	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.069013	-11.40%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.1764	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.073282	-13.01%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2303	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.070728	-12.15%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.1910	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.067575	-11.91%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.1425	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.067404	-11.87%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.1432	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.066789	-11.97%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1258	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.066238	-11.91%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1146	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.068831	-12.92%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.1522	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.069615	-12.45%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1146	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.07011	-12.58%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1100	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.070065	-11.55%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.0948	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.070367	-11.28%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1075	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.077299	-11.19%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2148	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.075135	-11.17%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.1455	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.074788	-11.40%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1171	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.068427	-9.88%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0139	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.075506	-10.38%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0902	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.07707	-9.77%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0343	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.076902	-10.41%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0205	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.080303	-11.02%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0167	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.08212	-10.86%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.0551	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.082078	-10.51%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0377	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.081962	-10.26%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0158	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.080445	-10.09%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0500	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.078647	-9.99%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0226	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.083729	-11.61%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1087	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.090398	-11.53%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.1616	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.087969	-10.51%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1311	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.092465	-11.06%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2326	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.097445	-12.54%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.2595	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.078979	-9.28%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0501	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.077462	-8.91%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0716	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.085495	-9.86%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0675	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.083137	-9.99%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.0870	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.082309	-10.55%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.0789	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.083897	-11.65%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1143	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.087129	-13.93%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.1662	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.106541	-18.38%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.3510	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.085623	-14.55%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.1661	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.07426	-8.60%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0107	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.073363	-9.04%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0149	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.069487	-7.20%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0783	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.063461	-5.30%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2404	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.066189	-6.89%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1787	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.073825	-11.50%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0937	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.086254	-13.30%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.1536	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.083488	-11.41%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0151	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.082433	-12.09%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0018	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.078407	-11.35%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0787	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.084494	-13.64%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0506	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.082561	-13.39%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0853	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.069851	-10.21%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2808	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.068465	-10.07%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.3170	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.069805	-11.16%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.2721	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.064512	-9.84%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.3142	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.062246	-9.92%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.4528	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.065332	-12.80%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.4441	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.063405	-13.29%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.4352	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.056893	-9.49%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5663	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.057929	-10.40%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.6338	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.057896	-10.57%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.4194	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.061069	-12.92%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.3308	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.058842	-11.38%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.4360	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.056966	-8.33%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.4494	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.057115	-9.38%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4869	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.061776	-11.94%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.4508	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.058456	-10.04%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.6363	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.063119	-11.41%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.9076	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.063607	-10.85%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.7112	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.067545	-12.25%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.4102	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.06645	-12.97%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.4254	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.055338	-9.12%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5380	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.056379	-9.38%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.4204	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.056528	-9.08%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.5182	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.061798	-10.12%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5658	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.062129	-9.30%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.7022	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.065677	-8.85%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5654	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.065191	-8.31%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5614	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.075621	-9.98%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3205	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.069024	-9.95%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.5247	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.064209	-9.27%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5641	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.065135	-8.89%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3279	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.064316	-8.69%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.3122	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.069179	-8.72%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2628	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.069091	-7.77%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1946	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.08058	-7.29%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0126	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.081918	-7.78%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0545	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.100503	-9.06%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2360	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.095798	-8.53%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.2930	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.089613	-8.80%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1791	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.086794	-9.84%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1721	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.081091	-9.98%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0304	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.082628	-10.14%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.0865	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.07997	-9.17%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0774	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.082527	-8.83%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1251	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.086449	-8.73%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0682	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.090066	-8.99%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.2144	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.105412	-9.43%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3333	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.100014	-9.23%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.3015	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.102141	-9.10%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2611	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.117903	-9.23%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.4126	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.12599	-9.01%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6897	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.124933	-8.78%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6570	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.124618	-6.87%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6584	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.124673	-7.43%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5900	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.114003	-7.08%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.5031	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.127122	-6.40%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.5467	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.107376	-6.42%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3763	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.117313	-10.21%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3496	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.102627	-9.94%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.3129	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.079058	-8.29%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1499	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.083435	-8.53%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.1703	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.108755	-11.76%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.4383	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.124706	-24.94%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.5364	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.07857	-8.14%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.1026	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.069709	-7.23%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1317	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.061269	-6.74%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.3084	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.054038	-9.19%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5867	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.050171	-8.25%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6242	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.049431	-8.21%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5683	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.04914	-8.30%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5562	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.057144	-7.74%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3346	✗	1.00