ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s5

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +7d

assessed

165

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

63.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2431

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0092

actual -0.0908

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001512	-1.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001523	-1.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.00125	-0.68%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001255	-0.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001146	-0.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001224	-0.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001268	-0.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001251	-0.55%	0.001541	+22.50%	0.1656	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001098	+1.33%	0.001549	+42.96%	0.2944	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001154	+0.87%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.0899	✓	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001144	+1.51%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.0974	✓	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001358	-0.61%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1354	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.00135	-0.50%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0625	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001243	+1.05%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0481	✓	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001352	-0.17%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0809	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001438	-0.54%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2485	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001554	-0.66%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2584	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001621	-0.67%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2825	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001627	-0.65%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1154	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001686	-0.69%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1779	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001746	-0.76%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3080	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.00187	-0.95%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2562	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001856	-0.94%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2441	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001784	-0.80%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1696	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001691	-0.68%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0811	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001889	-0.84%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1853	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001964	-0.95%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1524	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001998	-0.98%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1363	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002224	-1.49%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1736	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001917	-0.86%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0054	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002139	-0.91%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1197	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.00173	-0.77%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0509	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001491	-0.59%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1728	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00177	-0.96%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0454	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001812	-1.03%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0367	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.0016	-0.33%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1712	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001682	-0.58%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0346	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001672	-0.23%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0524	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.00179	-0.69%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1774	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001889	-0.73%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3148	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001821	-0.41%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.0969	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001946	-0.52%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1326	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.00203	-0.50%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2311	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002173	-0.60%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2064	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002226	-0.62%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2129	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002293	-0.65%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2187	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002517	-1.13%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1908	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002459	-1.04%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2335	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002957	-2.25%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3530	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003047	-2.01%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2849	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002302	-1.04%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0747	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002359	-0.94%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0771	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002603	-1.19%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1318	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002889	-1.98%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1838	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002531	-1.02%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0540	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.0021	-0.07%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3246	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002324	+0.24%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2702	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002174	+0.37%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1044	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.00195	+0.69%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2244	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002277	+0.30%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1536	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002357	-0.15%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2249	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002623	-0.66%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0495	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002571	-0.42%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1919	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.00297	-2.70%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4543	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002229	-2.60%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2648	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001911	-2.02%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3150	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001941	-2.26%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1797	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001834	-2.06%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0959	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001908	-2.41%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0048	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002023	-3.06%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1157	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001892	-2.49%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2452	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002127	-3.79%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0770	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001967	-3.14%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0390	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001717	-1.97%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1308	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001685	-1.85%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1588	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001565	-1.52%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2716	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001576	-1.55%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3259	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002046	-3.46%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0318	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001935	-3.17%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1629	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002253	-5.40%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0917	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001343	-0.94%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2552	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001343	-0.83%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2161	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001551	-1.42%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0276	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001647	-1.74%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0783	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001665	-1.80%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2513	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001713	-1.94%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1374	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001764	-2.14%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.2955	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.00201	-3.20%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3883	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001972	-3.04%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3336	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002197	-4.65%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2960	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.00219	-5.38%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2400	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001456	-1.73%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1605	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001339	-1.52%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3220	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001519	-2.06%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2390	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001181	-1.38%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.5983	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001207	-1.28%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5066	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001332	-1.26%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5594	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001407	-1.18%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.4934	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001041	+0.02%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3241	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001045	-0.08%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2324	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001155	-0.22%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2603	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001058	+1.14%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0613	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001215	+0.81%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0122	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001331	+0.63%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0075	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001157	+1.10%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2128	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001109	+1.42%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0749	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001014	+1.08%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0164	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001163	+2.12%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0349	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001422	+2.15%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2762	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001494	+2.20%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2179	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001573	+2.33%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1854	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001882	+1.46%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5292	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001603	+3.06%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.4123	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001859	+2.43%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6652	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001869	+2.79%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5982	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002248	+0.97%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5502	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002299	+1.11%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5304	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002508	+0.70%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5488	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002547	+0.80%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3644	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002348	+1.61%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4447	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002608	+0.90%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3449	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.00273	+0.62%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3353	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003114	+0.19%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2768	✗	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003274	+0.10%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.3034	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003645	-0.49%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3152	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003789	-0.66%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3500	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004404	-2.33%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5884	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003901	-1.18%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3411	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003722	-0.98%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2543	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003912	-1.57%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1826	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003523	-0.82%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0261	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003537	-0.80%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0390	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003327	-0.27%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1378	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004161	-3.31%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0941	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002952	+1.06%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2702	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002803	+1.88%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2675	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003404	+0.12%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1434	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002781	+2.67%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2366	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002633	+3.81%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3065	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002857	+3.51%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1567	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003492	+1.44%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2065	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003884	+0.27%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3113	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.0039	-0.31%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.4007	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004183	-1.77%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4054	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004527	-2.43%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8339	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004918	-3.17%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0751	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005334	-4.20%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0410	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005114	-4.02%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6894	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005767	-5.33%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7372	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.00433	-2.69%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2767	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004918	-3.38%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2884	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004076	-1.85%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1747	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004305	-2.39%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2037	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00403	-0.71%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3512	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003799	+0.64%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.3917	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003911	+0.63%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4849	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004262	-0.38%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0555	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.00506	-2.04%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0020	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005295	-2.22%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2373	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005481	-2.30%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1986	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005504	-2.20%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2578	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005963	-2.29%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4126	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005846	-2.47%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3852	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006135	-2.56%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3132	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005784	-2.17%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0528	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004923	-1.85%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1553	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005907	-2.43%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0194	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006185	-2.79%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0802	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007886	-5.38%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2696	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006388	-3.15%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0369	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004286	-1.62%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3899	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004225	-1.31%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3128	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.