ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s5

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

76.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4700

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0490

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.00133	-3.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001222	-2.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001225	-3.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001115	-2.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001192	-3.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001236	-3.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001219	-3.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001054	-2.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001112	-2.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001096	-2.72%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001326	-2.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001316	-3.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001195	-2.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001312	-3.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.0014	-3.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001518	-2.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001584	-2.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001593	-2.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001647	-3.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001704	-3.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001821	-3.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001803	-3.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001733	-3.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001645	-3.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001834	-3.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001904	-3.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001937	-4.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002153	-4.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001867	-3.49%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002085	-3.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001703	-2.35%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1305	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001453	-3.14%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1828	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.00172	-3.77%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3217	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001757	-4.06%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4502	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001541	-3.96%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3368	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001617	-4.42%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3518	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001604	-4.32%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3708	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001718	-4.67%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5239	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001798	-5.53%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5723	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001735	-5.07%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5201	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001846	-5.62%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4253	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001923	-5.76%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4747	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002064	-5.59%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6011	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002118	-5.40%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5244	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.00219	-5.13%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5124	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002402	-5.67%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5526	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002346	-5.59%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5006	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002823	-6.66%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7020	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002904	-6.61%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6178	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002199	-5.45%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3868	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002253	-5.41%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3469	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002475	-6.02%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3853	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002761	-6.31%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5549	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002402	-6.05%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4579	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002019	-3.92%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1997	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.00221	-4.71%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1937	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002084	-3.79%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1363	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.00189	-2.43%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0563	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002162	-4.75%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2097	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.00223	-5.51%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1930	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002485	-5.89%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5400	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002436	-5.67%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5420	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.00287	-5.97%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.7067	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.00215	-6.06%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4382	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001838	-5.75%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.4166	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001869	-5.90%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3749	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001761	-5.97%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3517	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001836	-6.10%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3715	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001954	-6.36%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3538	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001822	-6.09%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.3234	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002066	-6.54%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3882	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001901	-6.41%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2420	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001652	-5.67%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0658	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001623	-5.46%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0009	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001511	-4.89%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.0952	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001523	-4.86%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.1915	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001983	-6.41%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.1242	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001874	-6.18%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1477	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002216	-6.96%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0196	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001305	-3.80%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.2999	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001303	-3.73%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3229	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001502	-4.52%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2143	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001592	-5.02%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.2875	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001612	-4.93%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.1814	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001656	-5.19%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0580	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001705	-5.43%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0256	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001942	-6.45%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.2008	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001911	-6.04%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2602	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.00215	-6.66%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.2709	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002151	-7.08%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.1771	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001428	-3.63%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3421	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001316	-3.25%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.3906	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001497	-3.50%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5585	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001159	-3.23%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.5910	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001183	-3.27%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.4997	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001305	-3.26%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4272	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001374	-3.51%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3349	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001007	-3.29%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6810	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001013	-3.11%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7626	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001122	-3.07%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5830	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001013	-3.12%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7553	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001168	-3.08%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5575	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001282	-3.13%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3093	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001113	-2.67%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4184	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001068	-2.32%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3629	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000986954	-1.60%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4328	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001119	-1.74%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6210	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001363	-2.11%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3723	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001431	-2.09%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5010	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001505	-2.07%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1113	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001808	-2.53%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3085	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001528	-1.75%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0066	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001772	-2.34%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1162	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001782	-2.00%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1809	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002162	-2.87%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2824	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002209	-2.87%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2853	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002412	-3.16%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2201	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002447	-3.17%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2828	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002249	-2.68%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0580	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002503	-3.17%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1301	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002624	-3.28%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6108	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002999	-3.51%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8224	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003147	-3.79%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7580	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003504	-4.34%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0878	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003628	-4.87%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1058	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004111	-8.84%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1469	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003723	-5.68%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9500	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00357	-5.03%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1942	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003734	-6.03%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2410	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.00338	-4.85%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0573	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003383	-5.13%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1303	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003178	-4.74%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9735	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003913	-9.05%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0887	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002804	-3.99%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9149	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002661	-3.28%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8999	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003238	-4.77%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1688	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002636	-2.70%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8392	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002501	-1.37%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5834	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002716	-1.58%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6178	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003306	-3.95%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7732	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003694	-4.65%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7041	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003725	-4.78%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9276	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.00402	-5.60%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0746	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004342	-6.42%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3582	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004689	-7.68%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1822	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005044	-9.40%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2326	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004862	-8.75%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0921	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.00542	-11.02%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2510	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004172	-6.25%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.9156	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004721	-7.25%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0292	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003924	-5.51%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1631	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004152	-5.85%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.1085	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003849	-5.18%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0138	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003609	-4.41%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2035	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003718	-4.33%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2249	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004082	-4.57%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.2989	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.0049	-5.13%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0390	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005134	-5.20%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1464	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005319	-5.19%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.1272	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005345	-5.04%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.2236	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005796	-5.03%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2559	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005681	-5.22%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.3109	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005968	-5.22%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0910	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005625	-4.85%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3701	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.00479	-4.51%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2672	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005748	-5.05%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2791	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006035	-5.15%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5646	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007772	-6.74%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.8463	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006246	-5.31%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5282	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004161	-4.48%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0478	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004091	-4.45%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1663	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.