UMX

UMX · · lstm_s4

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

78.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0689

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0215

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.042038	+0.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.039787	+1.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.043314	+0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.055433	+0.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055782	+0.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.056125	+0.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.059279	+0.31%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.059268	+0.38%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3556	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.059437	+0.16%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4214	✗	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059559	+0.23%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3271	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060253	-0.28%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0889	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.060103	-0.17%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0743	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060334	-0.55%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0707	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060449	-0.81%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0182	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.05991	-1.02%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0163	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061187	-1.03%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0233	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.06117	-0.88%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0174	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060961	-1.18%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0108	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060882	-1.34%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0031	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060346	-1.71%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0144	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060534	-1.89%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0165	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060339	-1.86%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0194	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060161	-2.00%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0287	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060027	-1.93%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0182	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059436	-1.94%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0256	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059556	-1.95%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0246	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059823	-2.03%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0242	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059657	-2.07%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0314	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059877	-2.11%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0238	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.059841	-2.17%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0303	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059492	-2.05%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0450	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.0599	-2.08%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0327	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.059849	-2.58%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0071	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.058907	-2.57%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0141	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.059696	-2.73%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0019	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059424	-2.82%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0225	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.06017	-2.97%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0366	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.059164	-2.79%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0402	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.05885	-2.76%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0286	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.059141	-2.69%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0033	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.060819	-2.84%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0384	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.063064	-3.05%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0575	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.063179	-2.89%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0311	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.06311	-2.70%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0035	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064659	-2.76%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0316	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066134	-2.84%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0792	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.067887	-2.92%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0709	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069657	-3.09%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0742	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.069874	-3.05%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0402	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.071063	-2.83%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0283	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.07188	-3.18%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1153	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.072085	-3.09%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0942	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.072757	-2.93%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0734	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073547	-2.96%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0843	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.073127	-2.67%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0375	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074307	-2.65%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0539	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.075322	-2.13%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0418	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.079991	-2.65%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0526	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.081289	-2.71%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0744	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.086103	-2.94%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1334	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.084246	-2.85%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1050	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.084307	-2.77%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1304	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081887	-1.89%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0640	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.08074	-2.44%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1428	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.082703	-2.54%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1378	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083064	-2.22%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1881	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.082989	-1.96%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1362	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083002	-1.73%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1689	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.