UMX

UMX · · lstm_s4

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +30d

assessed

38

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1872

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0805

actual -0.2663

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.041114	-1.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.039579	+0.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.04299	+0.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.055075	-0.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054702	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055076	-1.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058372	-1.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058711	-0.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.05932	-0.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059713	+0.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060414	-0.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.060463	+0.43%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060581	-0.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060526	-0.69%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.05973	-1.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061025	-1.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061228	-0.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061179	-0.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061195	-0.83%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060369	-1.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060234	-2.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.05968	-2.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059153	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.058712	-4.08%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.058096	-4.16%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.058173	-4.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.058322	-4.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.058172	-4.50%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.058378	-4.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.058281	-4.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.058105	-4.33%	0.041845	-31.10%	0.3156	✓	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.058581	-4.23%	0.03934	-35.69%	0.3811	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.057996	-5.60%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.3131	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.057088	-5.58%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0387	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.057689	-6.00%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0483	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.057219	-6.43%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0570	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.057753	-6.86%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0121	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.056786	-6.69%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0029	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.05645	-6.73%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0220	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.056604	-6.86%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0011	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.05795	-7.42%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0052	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.059758	-8.13%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0450	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.059786	-8.11%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0366	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.059732	-7.91%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0202	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.060998	-8.27%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0393	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.062258	-8.53%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0491	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.063807	-8.76%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.0888	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.065414	-8.99%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1301	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.065698	-8.84%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.1449	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.067332	-7.93%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.1342	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.067658	-8.87%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.1812	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.068004	-8.57%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.1928	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.068814	-8.19%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.1758	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.069408	-8.42%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.1998	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.069246	-7.83%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.1978	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.070298	-7.90%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2278	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.071932	-6.53%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2142	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.075798	-7.75%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.2807	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.076877	-7.99%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3005	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.081266	-8.39%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3502	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.079259	-8.60%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.3696	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.079183	-8.68%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.3748	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.077726	-6.87%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2708	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.075339	-8.97%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3267	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.076631	-9.70%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3765	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.076682	-9.73%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3922	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.076749	-9.33%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3796	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.076824	-9.04%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.4177	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.