LIGHTER

? · · lstm_s4

token id: #154
symbol: LIGHTER
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-01-15
predictions: 813

Track record at +1d

assessed

270

of 271 predictions shown

direction hit

51.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0454

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0064

actual +0.0027

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	3.422	3.4047	-0.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.27
2026-10-20	oos	3.382	3.3696	-0.37%	3.422	+1.18%	0.0192	✗	1.30
2026-10-19	oos	3.095	3.0892	-0.19%	3.382	+9.27%	0.0735	✗	1.28
2026-10-18	oos	3.074	3.0714	-0.09%	3.095	+0.68%	0.0104	✗	1.30
2026-10-17	oos	3.116	3.1142	-0.06%	3.074	-1.35%	0.0230	✓	1.30
2026-10-16	oos	3.176	3.1769	+0.03%	3.116	-1.89%	0.0175	✗	1.30
2026-10-15	oos	3.0255	3.0305	+0.16%	3.176	+4.97%	0.0569	✓	1.31
2026-10-14	oos	3.085	3.09	+0.16%	3.0255	-1.93%	0.0300	✗	1.31
2026-10-13	oos	3.3505	3.3431	-0.22%	3.085	-7.92%	0.0562	✓	1.30
2026-10-12	oos	3.3745	3.3688	-0.17%	3.3505	-0.71%	0.0272	✓	1.32
2026-10-11	oos	3.838	3.8071	-0.81%	3.3745	-12.08%	0.0898	✓	1.32
2026-10-10	oos	3.637	3.615	-0.60%	3.838	+5.53%	0.0471	✗	1.38
2026-10-09	oos	3.628	3.6118	-0.45%	3.637	+0.25%	0.0008	✓	1.38
2026-10-08	oos	3.607	3.595	-0.33%	3.628	+0.58%	0.0053	✓	1.39
2026-10-07	oos	3.574	3.5579	-0.45%	3.607	+0.92%	0.0414	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	3.818	3.7904	-0.72%	3.574	-6.39%	0.0206	✓	1.42
2026-10-05	oos	4.019	3.9861	-0.82%	3.818	-5.00%	0.0396	✓	1.43
2026-10-04	oos	3.665	3.6478	-0.47%	4.019	+9.66%	0.1099	✗	1.48
2026-10-03	oos	3.567	3.5561	-0.31%	3.665	+2.75%	0.0004	✓	1.48
2026-10-02	oos	3.545	3.5402	-0.13%	3.567	+0.62%	0.0033	✗	1.50
2026-10-01	oos	3.806	3.7884	-0.46%	3.545	-6.86%	0.0604	✓	1.49
2026-09-30	oos	3.948	3.9288	-0.49%	3.806	-3.60%	0.0549	✓	1.51
2026-09-29	oos	3.926	3.9054	-0.53%	3.948	+0.56%	0.0123	✗	1.48
2026-09-28	oos	4.445	4.4091	-0.81%	3.926	-11.68%	0.1194	✓	1.52
2026-09-27	oos	4.655	4.6091	-0.99%	4.445	-4.51%	0.0186	✓	1.48
2026-09-26	oos	4.8445	4.7965	-0.99%	4.655	-3.91%	0.0307	✓	1.48
2026-09-25	oos	4.8545	4.8126	-0.86%	4.8445	-0.21%	0.0009	✓	1.48
2026-09-24	oos	5.071	5.022	-0.97%	4.8545	-4.27%	0.0288	✓	1.48
2026-09-23	oos	5.309	5.2487	-1.14%	5.071	-4.48%	0.0346	✓	1.48
2026-09-22	oos	5.0675	5.0065	-1.20%	5.309	+4.77%	0.0917	✗	1.55
2026-09-21	oos	4.7405	4.6831	-1.21%	5.0675	+6.90%	0.0855	✗	1.44
2026-09-20	oos	4.778	4.7188	-1.24%	4.7405	-0.78%	0.1030	✓	1.66
2026-09-19	oos	4.8145	4.7546	-1.24%	4.778	-0.76%	0.0064	✓	1.66
2026-09-18	oos	4.7725	4.7134	-1.24%	4.8145	+0.88%	0.0139	✗	1.65
2026-09-17	oos	4.816	4.7564	-1.24%	4.7725	-0.90%	0.1022	✓	1.83
2026-09-16	oos	4.605	4.5505	-1.18%	4.816	+4.58%	0.0518	✗	1.82
2026-09-15	oos	4.0195	3.9815	-0.94%	4.605	+14.57%	0.1320	✗	1.82
2026-09-14	oos	4.3875	4.3348	-1.20%	4.0195	-8.39%	0.0158	✓	1.77
2026-09-13	oos	4.1115	4.0647	-1.14%	4.3875	+6.71%	0.0455	✗	1.74
2026-09-12	oos	4.217	4.167	-1.19%	4.1115	-2.50%	0.0030	✓	1.74
2026-09-11	oos	4.353	4.309	-1.01%	4.217	-3.12%	0.0228	✓	1.73
2026-09-10	oos	4.2905	4.2489	-0.97%	4.353	+1.46%	0.0090	✓	1.74
2026-09-09	oos	4.5275	4.4832	-0.98%	4.2905	-5.23%	0.0050	✓	1.73
2026-09-08	oos	4.826	4.7731	-1.10%	4.5275	-6.19%	0.0491	✓	1.76
2026-09-07	oos	4.7225	4.6723	-1.06%	4.826	+2.19%	0.0470	✗	1.79
2026-09-06	oos	4.516	4.4697	-1.02%	4.7225	+4.57%	0.0824	✗	1.75
2026-09-05	oos	4.754	4.6989	-1.16%	4.516	-5.01%	0.0508	✓	1.75
2026-09-04	oos	4.823	4.7598	-1.31%	4.754	-1.43%	0.0045	✓	1.68
2026-09-03	oos	4.441	4.3864	-1.23%	4.823	+8.60%	0.1296	✗	1.76
2026-09-02	oos	3.792	3.7561	-0.95%	4.441	+17.11%	0.0908	✗	1.54
2026-09-01	oos	3.52	3.493	-0.77%	3.792	+7.73%	0.0840	✗	1.58
2026-08-31	oos	3.565	3.5401	-0.70%	3.52	-1.26%	0.0150	✗	1.39
2026-08-30	oos	3.531	3.5039	-0.77%	3.565	+0.96%	0.0066	✓	0.93
2026-08-29	oos	3.554	3.5289	-0.71%	3.531	-0.65%	0.0074	✗	0.94
2026-08-28	oos	3.497	3.4761	-0.60%	3.554	+1.63%	0.0174	✗	0.94
2026-08-27	oos	3.711	3.6908	-0.54%	3.497	-5.77%	0.0258	✓	0.91
2026-08-26	oos	3.453	3.4479	-0.15%	3.711	+7.47%	0.0596	✗	0.89
2026-08-25	oos	3.285	3.2833	-0.05%	3.453	+5.11%	0.0448	✗	0.88
2026-08-24	oos	3.401	3.3915	-0.28%	3.285	-3.41%	0.0268	✓	0.89
2026-08-23	oos	3.578	3.5371	-1.14%	3.401	-4.95%	0.0550	✓	0.99
2026-08-22	oos	3.187	3.1671	-0.62%	3.578	+12.27%	0.1135	✗	0.97
2026-08-21	oos	3.128	3.102	-0.83%	3.187	+1.89%	0.0432	✗	0.99
2026-08-20	oos	2.669	2.6558	-0.49%	3.128	+17.20%	0.1051	✗	0.83
2026-08-19	oos	2.602	2.583	-0.73%	2.669	+2.57%	0.0201	✓	1.01
2026-08-18	oos	2.359	2.3445	-0.62%	2.602	+10.30%	0.0370	✗	0.97
2026-08-17	oos	2.332	2.3158	-0.69%	2.359	+1.16%	0.0153	✗	1.01
2026-08-16	oos	2.276	2.261	-0.66%	2.332	+2.46%	0.0045	✓	1.03
2026-08-15	oos	2.266	2.2523	-0.60%	2.276	+0.44%	0.0134	✗	1.01
2026-08-14	oos	2.234	2.2232	-0.48%	2.266	+1.43%	0.0184	✗	1.02
2026-08-13	oos	2.271	2.2584	-0.56%	2.234	-1.63%	0.0037	✓	1.01
2026-08-12	oos	2.335	2.3183	-0.71%	2.271	-2.74%	0.0209	✓	1.05
2026-08-11	oos	2.418	2.3963	-0.90%	2.335	-3.43%	0.0239	✓	1.04
2026-08-10	oos	2.383	2.3615	-0.90%	2.418	+1.47%	0.0299	✗	1.05
2026-08-09	oos	2.304	2.2862	-0.77%	2.383	+3.43%	0.0574	✗	1.10
2026-08-08	oos	2.282	2.2649	-0.75%	2.304	+0.96%	0.0181	✗	1.10
2026-08-07	oos	2.2975	2.2806	-0.74%	2.282	-0.67%	0.0003	✓	1.09
2026-08-06	oos	2.371	2.35	-0.88%	2.2975	-3.10%	0.0332	✓	1.10
2026-08-05	oos	2.186	2.1723	-0.63%	2.371	+8.46%	0.0933	✗	1.12
2026-08-04	oos	2.056	2.0458	-0.50%	2.186	+6.32%	0.0570	✗	1.08
2026-08-03	oos	2.0035	1.9941	-0.47%	2.056	+2.62%	0.0208	✗	1.07
2026-08-02	oos	2.038	2.0265	-0.56%	2.0035	-1.69%	0.0108	✓	1.09
2026-08-01	oos	2.018	2.0082	-0.48%	2.038	+0.99%	0.0023	✓	1.07
2026-07-31	oos	2.068	2.0568	-0.54%	2.018	-2.42%	0.0180	✓	1.07
2026-07-30	oos	2.281	2.2618	-0.84%	2.068	-9.34%	0.0601	✓	0.99
2026-07-29	oos	2.179	2.1644	-0.67%	2.281	+4.68%	0.0401	✗	0.97
2026-07-28	oos	2.301	2.2815	-0.85%	2.179	-5.30%	0.0467	✓	0.95
2026-07-27	oos	2.129	2.1157	-0.63%	2.301	+8.08%	0.0818	✗	0.93
2026-07-26	oos	2.145	2.1293	-0.73%	2.129	-0.75%	0.0232	✗	0.92
2026-07-25	oos	2.064	2.05	-0.68%	2.145	+3.92%	0.0302	✗	0.93
2026-07-24	oos	2.0315	2.0187	-0.63%	2.064	+1.60%	0.0192	✗	0.91
2026-07-23	oos	2.1585	2.1407	-0.83%	2.0315	-5.88%	0.0391	✓	0.88
2026-07-22	oos	2.305	2.2835	-0.93%	2.1585	-6.36%	0.0429	✓	0.85
2026-07-21	oos	2.344	2.3213	-0.97%	2.305	-1.66%	0.0015	✓	0.85
2026-07-20	oos	2.179	2.1575	-0.99%	2.344	+7.57%	0.0677	✗	0.77
2026-07-19	oos	2.209	2.1855	-1.06%	2.179	-1.36%	0.0093	✓	0.77
2026-07-18	oos	2.257	2.2349	-0.98%	2.209	-2.13%	0.0103	✓	0.75
2026-07-17	oos	2.288	2.2651	-1.00%	2.257	-1.35%	0.0153	✓	0.84
2026-07-16	oos	2.285	2.2623	-0.99%	2.288	+0.13%	0.0096	✓	0.87
2026-07-15	oos	2.414	2.3889	-1.04%	2.285	-5.34%	0.0323	✓	0.83
2026-07-14	oos	2.595	2.5662	-1.11%	2.414	-6.97%	0.0577	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	2.305	2.2839	-0.91%	2.595	+12.58%	0.0972	✗	0.71
2026-07-12	oos	2.63	2.5972	-1.25%	2.305	-12.36%	0.1047	✓	0.63
2026-07-11	oos	2.577	2.545	-1.24%	2.63	+2.06%	0.0332	✗	0.63
2026-07-10	oos	2.688	2.6545	-1.25%	2.577	-4.13%	0.0257	✓	0.70
2026-07-09	oos	2.396	2.3684	-1.15%	2.688	+12.19%	0.1167	✗	0.66
2026-07-08	oos	2.3285	2.3037	-1.06%	2.396	+2.90%	0.0287	✗	0.71
2026-07-07	oos	2.459	2.4309	-1.14%	2.3285	-5.31%	0.0313	✓	0.68
2026-07-06	oos	2.578	2.544	-1.32%	2.459	-4.62%	0.0266	✓	0.69
2026-07-05	oos	2.462	2.4287	-1.35%	2.578	+4.71%	0.0551	✗	0.69
2026-07-04	oos	2.199	2.1719	-1.23%	2.462	+11.96%	0.1201	✗	0.67
2026-07-03	oos	2.118	2.0927	-1.20%	2.199	+3.82%	0.0436	✗	0.66
2026-07-02	oos	2.067	2.042	-1.21%	2.118	+2.47%	0.0256	✗	0.65
2026-07-01	oos	2.074	2.0419	-1.55%	2.067	-0.34%	0.0047	✓	0.68
2026-06-30	oos	1.85	1.8312	-1.01%	2.074	+12.11%	0.1105	✗	0.58
2026-06-29	oos	1.861	1.838	-1.23%	1.85	-0.59%	0.0224	✗	0.58
2026-06-28	oos	1.731	1.7108	-1.16%	1.861	+7.51%	0.0773	✗	0.59
2026-06-27	oos	1.72	1.7012	-1.09%	1.731	+0.64%	0.0218	✗	0.58
2026-06-26	oos	1.825	1.8048	-1.11%	1.72	-5.75%	0.0475	✓	0.58
2026-06-25	oos	1.609	1.5964	-0.78%	1.825	+13.42%	0.1310	✗	0.56
2026-06-24	oos	1.697	1.6804	-0.98%	1.609	-5.19%	0.0317	✓	0.55
2026-06-23	oos	1.504	1.4913	-0.85%	1.697	+12.83%	0.1486	✗	0.72
2026-06-22	oos	1.611	1.5944	-1.03%	1.504	-6.64%	0.0444	✓	0.68
2026-06-21	oos	1.567	1.5494	-1.12%	1.611	+2.81%	0.0315	✗	0.67
2026-06-20	oos	1.558	1.5399	-1.16%	1.567	+0.58%	0.0274	✗	0.64
2026-06-19	oos	1.544	1.5285	-1.00%	1.558	+0.91%	0.0110	✗	0.69
2026-06-18	oos	1.613	1.5974	-0.97%	1.544	-4.28%	0.0406	✓	0.71
2026-06-17	oos	1.72	1.701	-1.10%	1.613	-6.22%	0.0374	✓	0.64
2026-06-16	oos	1.734	1.7132	-1.20%	1.72	-0.81%	0.0156	✗	0.64
2026-06-15	oos	1.688	1.6665	-1.28%	1.734	+2.73%	0.0467	✗	0.69
2026-06-14	oos	1.684	1.6605	-1.40%	1.688	+0.24%	0.0107	✓	0.66
2026-06-13	oos	1.629	1.6062	-1.40%	1.684	+3.38%	0.0337	✗	0.69
2026-06-12	oos	1.537	1.5182	-1.22%	1.629	+5.99%	0.0614	✗	0.65
2026-06-11	oos	1.558	1.5396	-1.18%	1.537	-1.35%	0.0014	✓	0.65
2026-06-10	oos	1.392	1.3782	-0.99%	1.558	+11.93%	0.1038	✗	0.56
2026-06-09	oos	1.584	1.5664	-1.11%	1.392	-12.12%	0.1159	✓	0.56
2026-06-08	oos	1.467	1.451	-1.09%	1.584	+7.98%	0.1011	✗	0.61
2026-06-07	oos	1.433	1.4175	-1.09%	1.467	+2.37%	0.0367	✗	0.62
2026-06-06	oos	1.425	1.4099	-1.06%	1.433	+0.56%	0.0082	✓	0.62
2026-06-05	oos	1.503	1.4848	-1.21%	1.425	-5.19%	0.0392	✓	0.66
2026-06-04	oos	1.466	1.4491	-1.15%	1.503	+2.52%	0.0688	✗	0.73
2026-06-03	oos	1.781	1.7482	-1.84%	1.466	-17.69%	0.1733	✓	0.75
2026-06-02	oos	1.606	1.5796	-1.64%	1.781	+10.90%	0.1585	✗	0.96
2026-06-01	oos	1.336	1.3223	-1.02%	1.606	+20.21%	0.2901	✗	1.42
2026-05-31	oos	1.377	1.3608	-1.18%	1.336	-2.98%	0.0266	✗	1.44
2026-05-30	oos	1.3695	1.3517	-1.30%	1.377	+0.55%	0.0222	✗	1.36
2026-05-29	oos	1.262	1.2445	-1.39%	1.3695	+8.52%	0.0884	✗	1.35
2026-05-28	oos	1.174	1.1617	-1.05%	1.262	+7.50%	0.0855	✗	1.35
2026-05-27	oos	1.128	1.1164	-1.03%	1.174	+4.08%	0.0653	✗	1.38
2026-05-26	oos	1.184	1.1716	-1.04%	1.128	-4.73%	0.0104	✓	1.37
2026-05-25	oos	1.384	1.3652	-1.36%	1.184	-14.45%	0.1197	✓	1.22
2026-05-24	oos	1.295	1.2769	-1.40%	1.384	+6.87%	0.0763	✗	1.21
2026-05-23	oos	1.2265	1.2109	-1.27%	1.295	+5.58%	0.0621	✗	1.19
2026-05-22	oos	1.186	1.1693	-1.41%	1.2265	+3.41%	0.0290	✗	1.18
2026-05-21	oos	1.431	1.3867	-3.10%	1.186	-17.12%	0.1267	✓	1.08
2026-05-20	oos	1.278	1.2394	-3.02%	1.431	+11.97%	0.1427	✗	1.09
2026-05-19	oos	1.134	1.1106	-2.06%	1.278	+12.70%	0.1305	✗	1.07
2026-05-18	oos	0.954	0.947585	-0.67%	1.134	+18.87%	0.1822	✗	1.12
2026-05-17	oos	0.8635	0.860459	-0.35%	0.954	+10.48%	0.1101	✗	1.15
2026-05-16	oos	0.8775	0.87463	-0.33%	0.8635	-1.60%	0.0025	✓	1.15
2026-05-15	oos	0.857	0.854977	-0.24%	0.8775	+2.39%	0.0399	✗	1.15
2026-05-14	oos	0.915	0.912289	-0.30%	0.857	-6.34%	0.0338	✓	1.14
2026-05-13	oos	0.898	0.895576	-0.27%	0.915	+1.89%	0.0055	✓	1.20
2026-05-12	oos	0.9265	0.924278	-0.24%	0.898	-3.08%	0.0110	✓	1.19
2026-05-11	oos	0.9995	0.99647	-0.30%	0.9265	-7.30%	0.0549	✓	1.17
2026-05-10	oos	1.059	1.055	-0.38%	0.9995	-5.62%	0.0473	✓	1.17
2026-05-09	oos	1.053	1.0483	-0.45%	1.059	+0.57%	0.0122	✓	1.18
2026-05-08	oos	1.077	1.0702	-0.63%	1.053	-2.23%	0.0230	✓	1.18
2026-05-07	oos	0.989	0.986211	-0.28%	1.077	+8.90%	0.0854	✗	1.17
2026-05-06	oos	0.954	0.952098	-0.20%	0.989	+3.67%	0.0599	✗	1.23
2026-05-05	oos	0.966	0.963766	-0.23%	0.954	-1.24%	0.0170	✓	1.04
2026-05-04	oos	0.906	0.903845	-0.24%	0.966	+6.62%	0.0536	✗	0.99
2026-05-03	oos	0.923	0.920177	-0.31%	0.906	-1.84%	0.0319	✓	1.00
2026-05-02	oos	0.908	0.905533	-0.27%	0.923	+1.65%	0.0207	✗	1.02
2026-05-01	oos	0.903	0.901256	-0.19%	0.908	+0.55%	0.0016	✓	1.02
2026-04-30	oos	0.8845	0.882572	-0.22%	0.903	+2.09%	0.0029	✓	1.03
2026-04-29	oos	0.9475	0.945289	-0.23%	0.8845	-6.65%	0.0740	✓	1.04
2026-04-28	oos	0.897	0.89511	-0.21%	0.9475	+5.63%	0.0653	✗	1.13
2026-04-27	oos	0.8635	0.861379	-0.25%	0.897	+3.88%	0.0560	✗	1.14
2026-04-26	oos	0.913	0.910574	-0.27%	0.8635	-5.42%	0.0338	✓	1.15
2026-04-25	oos	0.93	0.927274	-0.29%	0.913	-1.83%	0.0308	✓	1.17
2026-04-24	oos	0.9475	0.944988	-0.27%	0.93	-1.85%	0.0189	✓	1.20
2026-04-23	oos	0.9245	0.922816	-0.18%	0.9475	+2.49%	0.0390	✗	1.20
2026-04-22	oos	0.8805	0.878939	-0.18%	0.9245	+5.00%	0.0494	✗	1.20
2026-04-21	oos	0.8975	0.895716	-0.20%	0.8805	-1.89%	0.0462	✓	1.21
2026-04-20	oos	0.9005	0.898871	-0.18%	0.8975	-0.33%	0.0093	✓	1.22
2026-04-19	oos	0.89	0.889194	-0.09%	0.9005	+1.18%	0.0201	✓	1.20
2026-04-18	oos	0.976	0.97492	-0.11%	0.89	-8.81%	0.0607	✓	1.19
2026-04-17	oos	1.0495	1.0485	-0.10%	0.976	-7.00%	0.0504	✓	1.19
2026-04-16	oos	1.043	1.0405	-0.24%	1.0495	+0.62%	0.0218	✓	1.20
2026-04-15	oos	1.0425	1.0401	-0.23%	1.043	+0.05%	0.0025	✓	1.19
2026-04-14	oos	1.0235	1.0209	-0.25%	1.0425	+1.86%	0.0104	✗	1.19
2026-04-13	oos	1.1435	1.1372	-0.55%	1.0235	-10.49%	0.1011	✓	1.19
2026-04-12	oos	1.094	1.0883	-0.52%	1.1435	+4.52%	0.0117	✓	1.20
2026-04-11	oos	1.206	1.1949	-0.92%	1.094	-9.29%	0.0499	✓	1.18
2026-04-10	oos	1.136	1.1284	-0.67%	1.206	+6.16%	0.0651	✗	1.18
2026-04-09	oos	1.016	1.0128	-0.31%	1.136	+11.81%	0.0956	✗	1.16
2026-04-08	oos	0.999	0.99599	-0.30%	1.016	+1.70%	0.0084	✗	1.16
2026-04-07	oos	1.073	1.067	-0.56%	0.999	-6.90%	0.0526	✓	1.15
2026-04-06	oos	1.0245	1.0193	-0.51%	1.073	+4.73%	0.0014	✓	1.15
2026-04-05	oos	1.0095	1.0042	-0.53%	1.0245	+1.49%	0.0226	✗	1.15
2026-04-04	oos	0.986	0.981546	-0.45%	1.0095	+2.38%	0.0009	✓	1.15
2026-04-03	oos	0.989	0.984691	-0.44%	0.986	-0.30%	0.0044	✓	1.15
2026-04-02	oos	0.949	0.945362	-0.38%	0.989	+4.21%	0.0440	✗	1.15
2026-04-01	oos	0.889	0.887478	-0.17%	0.949	+6.75%	0.0880	✗	1.16
2026-03-31	oos	0.871	0.869413	-0.18%	0.889	+2.07%	0.0241	✗	1.16
2026-03-30	oos	0.8075	0.807982	+0.06%	0.871	+7.86%	0.0499	✓	1.14
2026-03-29	oos	0.8265	0.827372	+0.11%	0.8075	-2.30%	0.0378	✗	1.15
2026-03-28	oos	0.8575	0.858126	+0.07%	0.8265	-3.62%	0.0312	✗	1.15
2026-03-27	oos	0.8825	0.883254	+0.09%	0.8575	-2.83%	0.0290	✗	1.15
2026-03-26	oos	0.912	0.91118	-0.09%	0.8825	-3.23%	0.0094	✗	1.16
2026-03-25	oos	0.9945	0.992555	-0.20%	0.912	-8.30%	0.0434	✓	1.14
2026-03-24	oos	1.0085	1.0063	-0.21%	0.9945	-1.39%	0.0242	✓	1.15
2026-03-23	oos	0.954	0.952602	-0.15%	1.0085	+5.71%	0.0625	✗	1.15
2026-03-22	oos	0.9405	0.93972	-0.08%	0.954	+1.44%	0.0358	✓	1.17
2026-03-21	oos	1.052	1.0494	-0.24%	0.9405	-10.60%	0.0916	✓	1.15
2026-03-20	oos	1.064	1.062	-0.19%	1.052	-1.13%	0.0168	✗	1.16
2026-03-19	oos	1.1945	1.1921	-0.20%	1.064	-10.93%	0.1234	✓	1.18
2026-03-18	oos	1.213	1.2103	-0.22%	1.1945	-1.53%	0.0090	✗	1.18
2026-03-17	oos	1.296	1.2912	-0.37%	1.213	-6.40%	0.0191	✓	1.17
2026-03-16	oos	1.1645	1.1619	-0.22%	1.296	+11.29%	0.1244	✗	1.19
2026-03-15	oos	1.087	1.0834	-0.33%	1.1645	+7.13%	0.0397	✗	1.17
2026-03-14	oos	1.107	1.1034	-0.33%	1.087	-1.81%	0.0412	✓	1.18
2026-03-13	oos	1.0995	1.0965	-0.28%	1.107	+0.68%	0.0048	✗	1.18
2026-03-12	oos	1.1525	1.1487	-0.33%	1.0995	-4.60%	0.0507	✓	1.19
2026-03-11	oos	1.0715	1.0694	-0.20%	1.1525	+7.56%	0.0694	✗	1.18
2026-03-10	oos	1.055	1.0541	-0.08%	1.0715	+1.56%	0.0122	✗	1.18
2026-03-09	oos	1.021	1.0219	+0.09%	1.055	+3.33%	0.0059	✓	1.17
2026-03-08	oos	1.019	1.0214	+0.24%	1.021	+0.20%	0.0443	✗	1.20
2026-03-07	oos	1.13	1.1293	-0.06%	1.019	-9.82%	0.0799	✓	1.18
2026-03-06	oos	1.14	1.14	+0.00%	1.13	-0.88%	0.0060	✓	1.18
2026-03-05	oos	1.2085	1.2066	-0.15%	1.14	-5.67%	0.0096	✓	1.18
2026-03-04	oos	1.373	1.3699	-0.23%	1.2085	-11.98%	0.0965	✓	1.15
2026-03-03	oos	1.301	1.2982	-0.21%	1.373	+5.53%	0.0162	✓	1.17
2026-03-02	oos	1.357	1.3541	-0.22%	1.301	-4.13%	0.0315	✓	1.17
2026-03-01	oos	1.359	1.3574	-0.12%	1.357	-0.15%	0.0559	✓	1.22
2026-02-28	oos	1.38	1.3782	-0.13%	1.359	-1.52%	0.0080	✗	1.22
2026-02-27	oos	1.358	1.357	-0.07%	1.38	+1.62%	0.0036	✓	1.22
2026-02-26	oos	1.4295	1.4271	-0.17%	1.358	-5.00%	0.0198	✓	1.22
2026-02-25	oos	1.456	1.4535	-0.17%	1.4295	-1.82%	0.0076	✓	1.22
2026-02-24	oos	1.4305	1.43	-0.03%	1.456	+1.78%	0.0588	✓	1.29
2026-02-23	oos	1.386	1.3866	+0.04%	1.4305	+3.21%	0.0424	✓	1.29
2026-02-22	oos	1.4465	1.4434	-0.21%	1.386	-4.18%	0.0182	✗	1.30
2026-02-21	oos	1.514	1.51	-0.26%	1.4465	-4.46%	0.0365	✓	1.30
2026-02-20	oos	1.532	1.5289	-0.20%	1.514	-1.17%	0.0092	✓	1.31
2026-02-19	oos	1.476	1.4752	-0.05%	1.532	+3.79%	0.0183	✗	1.30
2026-02-18	oos	1.445	1.4458	+0.05%	1.476	+2.15%	0.0099	✓	1.30
2026-02-17	oos	1.591	1.5889	-0.13%	1.445	-9.18%	0.0747	✓	1.29
2026-02-16	oos	1.687	1.6814	-0.33%	1.591	-5.69%	0.0291	✓	1.28
2026-02-15	oos	1.68	1.6755	-0.27%	1.687	+0.42%	0.0056	✗	1.28
2026-02-14	oos	1.645	1.6407	-0.26%	1.68	+2.13%	0.0421	✗	1.29
2026-02-13	oos	1.5985	1.5962	-0.15%	1.645	+2.91%	0.0161	✗	1.00
2026-02-12	oos	1.426	1.4303	+0.30%	1.5985	+12.10%	0.0726	✓	1.00
2026-02-11	oos	1.418	1.4226	+0.32%	1.426	+0.56%	0.0147	✓	1.00
2026-02-10	oos	1.471	1.4741	+0.21%	1.418	-3.60%	0.0126	✗	1.00
2026-02-09	oos	1.547	1.5476	+0.04%	1.471	-4.91%	0.0321	✗	1.00
2026-02-08	oos	1.62	1.6186	-0.08%	1.547	-4.51%	0.0427	✓	1.00
2026-02-07	oos	1.63	1.6309	+0.06%	1.62	-0.61%	0.0216	✗	1.00
2026-02-06	oos	1.664	1.6641	+0.01%	1.63	-2.04%	0.0024	✗	1.00
2026-02-05	oos	1.436	1.4451	+0.63%	1.664	+15.88%	0.0249	✓	1.00
2026-02-04	oos	1.576	1.5758	-0.01%	1.436	-8.88%	0.0577	✗	1.00
2026-02-03	oos	1.482	1.4797	-0.16%	1.576	+6.34%	0.0989	✗	1.00
2026-02-02	oos	1.593	1.5822	-0.68%	1.482	-6.97%	0.0265	✓	1.00
2026-02-01	oos	1.512	1.5061	-0.39%	1.593	+5.36%	0.0333	✗	1.00
2026-01-31	oos	1.564	1.5543	-0.62%	1.512	-3.32%	0.0050	✓	1.00
2026-01-30	oos	1.723	1.7073	-0.91%	1.564	-9.23%	0.0205	✓	1.00
2026-01-29	oos	1.612	1.5987	-0.82%	1.723	+6.89%	0.0796	✗	1.00
2026-01-28	oos	1.99	1.9675	-1.13%	1.612	-18.99%	0.1457	✓	1.00
2026-01-27	oos	1.939	1.9164	-1.16%	1.99	+2.63%	0.0372	✗	1.00
2026-01-26	oos	1.708	1.6909	-1.00%	1.939	+13.52%	0.1271	✗	1.00
2026-01-25	oos	1.5775	1.5635	-0.89%	1.708	+8.27%	0.0691	✗	1.00
2026-01-24	oos	1.806	1.7868	-1.06%	1.5775	-12.65%	0.0959	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.