ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s4

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

59.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2434

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0107

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001357	-1.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001249	-0.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001254	-0.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001147	-0.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001224	-0.43%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001268	-0.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.00125	-0.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001092	+0.82%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2063	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001146	+0.14%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.0973	✓	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001135	+0.79%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1045	✓	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001356	-0.74%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1341	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001348	-0.66%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0608	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.00123	-0.00%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0585	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001349	-0.44%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0783	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001436	-0.64%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2476	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001557	-0.45%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2606	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001626	-0.32%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2859	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001635	-0.15%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1205	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001693	-0.30%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1818	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001753	-0.31%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3125	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001881	-0.36%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2623	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001865	-0.46%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2489	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001791	-0.37%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1739	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001696	-0.33%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0846	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001902	-0.17%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1920	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001978	-0.24%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1596	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002012	-0.29%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1432	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002241	-0.75%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1811	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001935	+0.03%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0143	✗	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002175	+0.77%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1366	✗	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001767	+1.35%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0297	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001495	-0.33%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1703	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001781	-0.33%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0391	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001825	-0.35%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0299	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001605	+0.03%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1676	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.00169	-0.15%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0390	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001677	+0.07%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0495	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001801	-0.07%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1837	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.0019	-0.15%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3207	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.00183	+0.09%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1019	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001957	+0.07%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1385	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002041	+0.02%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2364	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002191	+0.23%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2147	✗	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002246	+0.30%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2221	✗	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002318	+0.45%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2297	✗	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00255	+0.15%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.2037	✗	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002489	+0.19%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2458	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002926	-3.24%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3427	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003006	-3.34%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2712	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002328	+0.10%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0861	✗	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002383	+0.03%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0869	✗	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002604	-1.15%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1322	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002852	-3.23%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1710	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002545	-0.48%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0594	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002133	+1.54%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3085	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002351	+1.39%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2588	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002202	+1.65%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.0917	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001982	+2.31%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2084	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002301	+1.37%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1430	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002377	+0.71%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2163	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002581	-2.25%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0335	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002554	-1.08%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1852	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002934	-3.86%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4423	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002216	-3.18%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2589	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001897	-2.72%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3079	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001928	-2.91%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1730	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001821	-2.76%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0888	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001896	-3.00%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0013	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002017	-3.35%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1127	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.00188	-3.08%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2514	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002128	-3.75%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0775	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001961	-3.47%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0355	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001703	-2.76%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1389	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001672	-2.65%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1669	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001555	-2.16%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2782	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001564	-2.30%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3336	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002038	-3.82%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0281	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001924	-3.70%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1683	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002262	-5.04%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0954	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001341	-1.08%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2566	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001339	-1.11%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2189	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001533	-2.55%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0160	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001625	-3.05%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0649	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001643	-3.12%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2648	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001689	-3.34%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1517	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001738	-3.59%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3104	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001991	-4.10%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3789	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001949	-4.16%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3219	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002188	-5.02%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2920	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002179	-5.86%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2349	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001448	-2.31%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1664	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001341	-1.39%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3207	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001507	-2.84%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2471	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001189	-0.79%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.5923	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001212	-0.87%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5025	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001328	-1.53%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5621	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001395	-2.05%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5022	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001045	+0.40%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3203	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.00105	+0.39%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2277	✓	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001157	-0.08%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2588	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001058	+1.17%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0610	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001209	+0.31%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0072	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001321	-0.12%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0000	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001155	+1.00%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2138	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.00111	+1.59%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0766	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001025	+2.20%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0274	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.00116	+1.87%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0325	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001409	+1.23%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2672	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001481	+1.32%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2092	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001559	+1.43%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1766	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001871	+0.88%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5236	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001586	+2.01%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.4020	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001848	+1.84%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6594	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001858	+2.18%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5922	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002255	+1.31%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5535	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002309	+1.53%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5345	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002517	+1.05%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5523	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002556	+1.14%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3678	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002355	+1.90%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4476	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002613	+1.07%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3466	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002724	+0.41%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3332	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003097	-0.35%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2715	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003255	-0.50%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2974	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.00361	-1.45%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3055	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003741	-1.92%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3372	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004334	-3.88%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5724	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003842	-2.67%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3259	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003678	-2.16%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2423	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003857	-2.95%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1685	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003496	-1.58%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0184	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003516	-1.41%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0451	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003328	-0.24%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1375	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004127	-4.09%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1022	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002963	+1.43%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2666	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002803	+1.89%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2674	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.00343	+0.88%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1359	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002767	+2.15%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2417	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002602	+2.59%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3183	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002832	+2.60%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1655	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003514	+2.09%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2001	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.00394	+1.71%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3255	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003965	+1.36%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.4173	✗	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004224	-0.79%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4152	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004555	-1.83%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8401	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004951	-2.52%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0819	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005379	-3.40%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0494	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005162	-3.11%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6989	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005819	-4.48%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7462	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004358	-2.07%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2831	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004959	-2.57%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2968	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004076	-1.86%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1749	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004318	-2.08%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2005	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003997	-1.54%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3595	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003714	-1.61%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4143	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003816	-1.80%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5094	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004192	-2.01%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0721	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005049	-2.24%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0040	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005282	-2.45%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2349	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005461	-2.65%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1950	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005474	-2.74%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2522	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005922	-2.97%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4057	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005807	-3.12%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3786	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006088	-3.30%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3056	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005732	-3.05%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0438	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004875	-2.81%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1651	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005849	-3.39%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0095	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.00613	-3.66%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0713	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.00787	-5.57%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2676	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006321	-4.17%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0264	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004215	-3.23%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4065	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004137	-3.37%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3338	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.