ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s4

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

73.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4703

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0613

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001313	-4.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001214	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001217	-3.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001111	-3.23%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001185	-3.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001226	-3.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001208	-3.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001047	-3.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001102	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001088	-3.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001313	-3.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001302	-4.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001179	-4.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001298	-4.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.00139	-3.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001517	-2.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001589	-2.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001603	-2.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001655	-2.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001714	-2.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.00184	-2.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.00182	-2.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001749	-2.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001655	-2.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001866	-2.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001941	-2.09%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001975	-2.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.00219	-3.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001909	-1.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002178	+0.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001788	+2.51%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1790	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001449	-3.41%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1801	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001742	-2.53%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3345	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001783	-2.63%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4650	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001543	-3.84%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3380	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001627	-3.82%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3581	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001611	-3.88%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3754	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001747	-3.08%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5405	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001842	-3.23%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5963	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001771	-3.13%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5404	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001901	-2.83%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4544	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001983	-2.83%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.5053	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002142	-2.01%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6384	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002201	-1.73%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5625	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002282	-1.15%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5535	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002514	-1.24%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5985	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002458	-1.08%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5473	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002744	-9.29%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6735	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002818	-9.39%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.5876	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002292	-1.48%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.4279	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002347	-1.47%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3878	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002531	-3.92%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.4073	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002676	-9.19%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5236	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002502	-2.16%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4984	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002161	+2.87%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2680	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002399	+3.47%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2761	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002254	+4.05%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.2146	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.002047	+5.70%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0236	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.00236	+3.96%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2972	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002412	+2.22%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2716	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002484	-5.89%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5400	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002522	-2.32%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5769	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002743	-10.14%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6613	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002083	-9.02%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4062	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001789	-8.25%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3897	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001813	-8.73%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3445	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001714	-8.47%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3248	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001778	-9.05%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3396	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001881	-9.86%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3157	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001761	-9.21%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2896	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001974	-10.70%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3427	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001826	-10.10%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2018	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001604	-8.40%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0365	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001578	-8.08%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0290	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.00148	-6.85%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1160	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001487	-7.14%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2158	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001891	-10.76%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0766	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.00179	-10.40%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1937	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002069	-13.13%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0489	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001293	-4.67%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3090	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001289	-4.76%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3336	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001447	-8.03%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2517	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001521	-9.25%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3330	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001538	-9.30%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2285	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001574	-9.88%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0073	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001615	-10.42%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0287	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001838	-11.44%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1459	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001801	-11.44%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2010	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002002	-13.10%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1995	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001974	-14.74%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0910	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001378	-7.03%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3780	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001296	-4.72%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4059	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001425	-8.12%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6076	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001153	-3.77%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.5966	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001174	-4.01%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5075	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001277	-5.30%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4485	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.00133	-6.61%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3675	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001004	-3.59%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6840	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001008	-3.60%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7676	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001114	-3.84%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5909	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001008	-3.60%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7602	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001158	-3.92%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5663	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001264	-4.47%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3232	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001099	-3.97%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4319	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001051	-3.81%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3782	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000967108	-3.58%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4532	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001098	-3.62%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6403	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001342	-3.56%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3871	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001411	-3.48%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5153	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001485	-3.40%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.0976	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.00179	-3.49%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.2985	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001502	-3.41%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0237	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001753	-3.44%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1049	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001758	-3.32%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1673	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002149	-3.44%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2764	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002197	-3.37%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2802	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002403	-3.53%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2163	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002438	-3.52%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2793	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002233	-3.38%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0507	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002494	-3.53%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1265	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002615	-3.62%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6072	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003002	-3.42%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8233	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003153	-3.62%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7598	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003472	-5.20%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0787	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003572	-6.36%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0901	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004013	-11.00%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1229	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003626	-8.14%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9236	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.0035	-6.89%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1744	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003628	-8.71%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2121	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003343	-5.88%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0464	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003354	-5.93%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1218	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003184	-4.57%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9754	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003806	-11.56%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0607	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002798	-4.22%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9125	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002645	-3.87%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8937	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003225	-5.16%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1648	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002605	-3.85%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8272	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002449	-3.45%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5621	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002668	-3.34%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.5997	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003316	-3.67%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7762	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003727	-3.79%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7131	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003764	-3.78%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9381	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004052	-4.85%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0825	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004346	-6.34%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3591	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004682	-7.82%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1807	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005014	-9.94%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2266	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004837	-9.22%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0868	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005339	-12.37%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2358	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004132	-7.15%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.9060	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004685	-7.95%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0217	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003846	-7.38%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1431	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004075	-7.60%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0897	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003757	-7.45%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0381	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003481	-7.78%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2394	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003573	-8.05%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2645	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.00394	-7.91%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3346	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004776	-7.52%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0135	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004984	-7.96%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1169	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005141	-8.36%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0932	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005149	-8.52%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1862	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005559	-8.91%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2141	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005433	-9.36%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2663	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005685	-9.71%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0424	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005376	-9.07%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3247	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004586	-8.57%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2238	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005458	-9.85%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2272	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005702	-10.38%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5079	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007144	-14.28%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7620	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005841	-11.44%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4613	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.003915	-10.12%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.1087	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003825	-10.66%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2335	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.