2022-02-14 · +7d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 150 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.0702

150 of 150 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+2.06%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

62.0%

in alpha space · 96.0% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-12.99%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (150 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	23,089.90	22,150.92	-4.07%	19,642.84	-14.93%	0.0112	✓	0.94	7.6M	2022-02-21
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.226	1.1779	-3.92%	0.8883	-27.54%	0.1602	✓	0.88	1.6M	2022-02-21
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.23	2.1475	-3.70%	1.99	-10.76%	0.2007	✗	1.99	923k	2022-02-21
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	4.666	4.514	-3.26%	2.332	-50.02%	0.5323	✓	0.92	709k	2022-02-21
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.4399	0.425959	-3.17%	0.3401	-22.69%	0.0233	✓	1.79	26.1M	2022-02-21
API3	Api3	Ethereum	4.35	4.2146	-3.11%	5.72	+31.49%	0.3501	✗	0.32	2.0M	2022-02-21
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	2.91	2.8212	-3.05%	2.34	-19.59%	0.0127	✓	1.44	18.3M	2022-02-21
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.4806	3.3807	-2.87%	2.2241	-36.10%	0.2975	✓	0.87	30k	2022-02-21
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	20.74	20.181	-2.70%	17.77	-14.32%	0.0344	✗	1.16	24.7M	2022-02-21
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.07	3.9639	-2.61%	3.28	-19.41%	0.0037	✓	1.39	8.0M	2022-02-21
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	44.85	43.7764	-2.39%	39.81	-11.24%	0.0681	✗	1.17	31.2M	2022-02-21
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.9224	1.8767	-2.38%	1.7569	-8.61%	0.0160	✓	0.59	2.8M	2022-02-21
AVT	Aventus	Ethereum	2.84	2.773	-2.36%	2.37	-16.55%	0.0179	✓	1.00	693k	2022-02-21
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.2512	1.2223	-2.31%	1.646	+31.55%	0.5162	✗	1.57	123k	2022-02-21
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.402	7.2329	-2.28%	5.32	-28.13%	0.1684	✓	1.00	407k	2022-02-21
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.016621	0.016246	-2.26%	0.012214	-26.51%	0.1236	✓	1.16	535k	2022-02-21
STX	Stacks	native	1.47	1.4374	-2.22%	1.11	-24.49%	0.1194	✓	1.00	1.0M	2022-02-21
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0688	0.067275	-2.22%	0.0474	-31.10%	0.1032	✓	1.78	64.3M	2022-02-21
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.028657	0.028026	-2.20%	0.023018	-19.68%	0.0146	✓	1.31	102k	2022-02-21
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.114	0.111601	-2.10%	0.132	+15.79%	0.3070	✗	1.00	71k	2022-02-21
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.545	0.533615	-2.09%	0.4311	-20.90%	0.0528	✗	1.91	1.8M	2022-02-21
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.5644	0.552891	-2.04%	0.481	-14.78%	0.0071	✓	1.05	1.0M	2022-02-21
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1573	0.154093	-2.04%	0.1229	-21.87%	0.0376	✓	1.36	3.2M	2022-02-21
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	27.16	26.6214	-1.98%	23.83	-12.26%	0.0451	✗	1.12	71.8M	2022-02-21
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1626	0.159575	-1.86%	0.1283	-21.09%	0.0740	✓	1.04	470k	2022-02-21
BAND	Band	Ethereum	4.21	4.1335	-1.82%	3.77	-10.45%	0.0803	✗	1.24	1.9M	2022-02-21
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.17	7.04	-1.81%	5.95	-17.02%	0.1249	✓	0.31	1.7M	2022-02-21
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	15.4	15.1303	-1.75%	12.48	-18.96%	0.0470	✓	1.05	483k	2022-02-21
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	5.8399	5.7384	-1.74%	5.8395	-0.01%	0.0640	✗	0.33	430k	2022-02-21
DIA	DIA	Ethereum	0.94	0.923841	-1.72%	0.91	-3.19%	0.1240	✗	1.00	271k	2022-02-21
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.94	0.924035	-1.70%	0.72	-23.40%	0.0238	✗	1.96	1.0M	2022-02-21
BTTC	BTTC		0.00000213	0.000002094	-1.69%	0.00000194	-8.92%	0.0627	✗	1.00	14.3M	2022-02-21
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0338	0.03323	-1.69%	0.0263	-22.19%	0.0262	✓	1.49	490k	2022-02-21
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	53.94	53.0328	-1.68%	50.13	-7.06%	0.1431	✗	1.43	6.9M	2022-02-21
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04361	0.042883	-1.67%	0.03362	-22.91%	0.1427	✓	0.72	2.6M	2022-02-21
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.05	1.0327	-1.65%	0.8572	-18.36%	0.0297	✓	1.13	115.7M	2022-02-21
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	15.9	15.6427	-1.62%	13.51	-15.03%	0.0200	✗	1.20	70.2M	2022-02-21
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01366	0.013442	-1.59%	0.01284	-6.00%	0.0612	✗	0.77	13k	2022-02-21
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01219	0.011996	-1.59%	0.01004	-17.64%	0.0380	✗	1.55	1.7M	2022-02-21
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.12	1.1028	-1.54%	0.92	-17.86%	0.0101	✓	1.38	694k	2022-02-21
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.9552	3.895	-1.52%	2.8775	-27.25%	0.1674	✓	0.97	2.3M	2022-02-21
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.210709	0.207546	-1.50%	0.17816	-15.45%	0.0099	✓	1.03	21.9M	2022-02-21
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.33	3.2801	-1.50%	2.889	-13.24%	0.0068	✓	0.86	502k	2022-02-21
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002958	0.000029149	-1.46%	0.00002404	-18.73%	0.0037	✓	1.41	2.3M	2022-02-21
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1748	0.172267	-1.45%	0.1488	-14.87%	0.0469	✓	0.72	388k	2022-02-21
XVG	Verge	native	0.01132	0.011156	-1.45%	0.00929	-17.93%	0.0118	✓	1.40	1.2M	2022-02-21
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.364	0.358737	-1.45%	0.279	-23.35%	0.0648	✓	1.34	2.3M	2022-02-21
FIDA	Bonfida	Solana	2.355	2.3211	-1.44%	1.853	-21.32%	0.0861	✓	1.00	84k	2022-02-21
ORCA	Orca	Solana	3.09	3.0455	-1.44%	2.62	-15.21%	0.0114	✓	1.00	914k	2022-02-21
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.76	6.6631	-1.43%	5.83	-13.76%	0.0086	✓	0.90	426k	2022-02-21
XEM	NEM	native	0.1094	0.107837	-1.43%	0.0927	-15.27%	0.0044	✓	1.06	39k	2022-02-21
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	56.82	56.0114	-1.42%	47.35	-16.67%	0.0054	✓	1.25	8.8M	2022-02-21
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.94	1.9125	-1.42%	1.57	-19.07%	0.0151	✓	1.31	2.2M	2022-02-21
DASH	Dash	Dash	103.84	102.372	-1.41%	87.04	-16.18%	0.0070	✓	1.12	2.0M	2022-02-21
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.5401	3.4902	-1.41%	2.8682	-18.98%	0.0463	✓	1.08	2.5M	2022-02-21
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.046133	0.045484	-1.41%	0.050288	+9.01%	0.2708	✗	1.22	6.5M	2022-02-21
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	81.84	80.6891	-1.41%	70.08	-14.37%	0.0577	✗	1.43	98.9M	2022-02-21
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0868	0.085581	-1.40%	0.0681	-21.54%	0.0369	✓	1.38	674k	2022-02-21
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	20.75	20.4601	-1.40%	18.64	-10.17%	0.0755	✗	1.21	10.5M	2022-02-21
HIVE	Hive	native	1.0452	1.0306	-1.39%	0.8148	-22.04%	0.0048	✓	1.65	1.9M	2022-02-21
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	42,548.71	41,957.47	-1.39%	37,023.00	-12.99%	0.0140	✗	1.00	642.7M	2022-02-21
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.145821	0.143798	-1.39%	0.128094	-12.16%	0.0267	✗	1.02	6.7M	2022-02-21
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9001	0.887848	-1.36%	0.7852	-12.77%	0.0319	✗	1.11	26.7M	2022-02-21
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.8438	2.8053	-1.35%	2.4827	-12.70%	0.0228	✗	1.04	2.8M	2022-02-21
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	11.42	11.2659	-1.35%	9.06	-20.67%	0.1185	✓	0.71	706k	2022-02-21
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	6	5.9192	-1.35%	4.92	-18.00%	0.0404	✓	1.04	1.9M	2022-02-21
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	121.35	119.7349	-1.33%	106.88	-11.92%	0.0270	✗	1.01	7.8M	2022-02-21
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00566	0.005586	-1.30%	0.00451	-20.32%	0.0666	✗	2.02	18.8M	2022-02-21
XMR	Monero	Monero	176.38	174.0909	-1.30%	148	-16.09%	0.0200	✓	1.02	1.2M	2022-02-21
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2886	0.284914	-1.28%	0.2293	-20.55%	0.0601	✓	1.13	538k	2022-02-21
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0819	0.080854	-1.28%	0.0692	-15.51%	0.0149	✗	1.23	195k	2022-02-21
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.9473	3.8983	-1.24%	2.9731	-24.68%	0.0897	✓	1.30	2.4M	2022-02-21
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	42,156.20	41,640.27	-1.22%	37,080.10	-12.04%	0.0198	✗	0.98	51k	2022-02-21
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	18.7	18.4728	-1.21%	16.19	-13.42%	0.0576	✗	1.36	34.9M	2022-02-21
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.502	0.495912	-1.21%	0.444	-11.55%	0.0892	✗	1.44	4.5M	2022-02-21
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.61	1.5905	-1.21%	1.34	-16.77%	0.0082	✓	1.17	1.9M	2022-02-21
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.793	2.7593	-1.21%	2.321	-16.90%	0.0157	✗	1.36	1.1M	2022-02-21
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	161.11	159.1798	-1.20%	128.58	-20.19%	0.0172	✓	1.41	8.1M	2022-02-21
XEC	eCash	native	0.00008178	0.000080833	-1.16%	0.00006783	-17.06%	0.0169	✓	1.14	5.1M	2022-02-21
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.5803	6.5045	-1.15%	5.7431	-12.72%	0.0765	✗	1.45	130k	2022-02-21
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.631	4.5779	-1.15%	4.021	-13.17%	0.0124	✓	0.84	379k	2022-02-21
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.753	1.733	-1.14%	1.384	-21.05%	0.0410	✓	1.32	1.1M	2022-02-21
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07495	0.074099	-1.14%	0.05994	-20.03%	0.1085	✓	0.74	84k	2022-02-21
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	31.42	31.073	-1.10%	25	-20.43%	0.0715	✓	1.05	5.1M	2022-02-21
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	28.49	28.1835	-1.08%	26.51	-6.95%	0.0722	✗	0.96	1.2M	2022-02-21
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.021238	0.021012	-1.06%	0.018035	-15.08%	0.0174	✗	1.22	2.5M	2022-02-21
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.09436	0.09336	-1.06%	0.0791	-16.17%	0.0056	✓	1.15	51k	2022-02-21
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.80709	0.798591	-1.05%	0.64579	-19.99%	0.0016	✓	1.51	299k	2022-02-21
SOL	Solana	Solana	96.43	95.4393	-1.03%	82.97	-13.96%	0.0365	✗	1.27	179.7M	2022-02-21
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.268	0.265284	-1.01%	0.2206	-17.69%	0.0369	✓	1.06	1.6M	2022-02-21
ZEN	Horizen	Base	41.27	40.8565	-1.00%	32.14	-22.12%	0.0227	✓	1.56	400k	2022-02-21
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.0437	0.043269	-0.99%	0.03591	-17.83%	0.0216	✓	1.19	30k	2022-02-21
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.285	0.282201	-0.98%	0.248	-12.98%	0.0030	✓	0.95	77k	2022-02-21
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	120.62	119.4469	-0.97%	100.47	-16.71%	0.0034	✓	1.22	7.2M	2022-02-21
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.68	2.6545	-0.95%	2.16	-19.40%	0.0267	✓	1.29	390k	2022-02-21
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	1.84	1.8226	-0.95%	1.25	-32.07%	0.2131	✓	1.18	1.4M	2022-02-21
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	4.6155	4.5726	-0.93%	3.7534	-18.68%	0.0270	✓	1.22	349k	2022-02-21
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2046	0.202697	-0.93%	0.1686	-17.60%	0.0135	✗	1.42	3.7M	2022-02-21
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	17.92	17.7546	-0.92%	13.77	-23.16%	0.1547	✓	0.72	1.1M	2022-02-21
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8459	0.838218	-0.91%	0.7113	-15.91%	0.0085	✓	1.12	12.4M	2022-02-21
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02945	0.029184	-0.90%	0.0257	-12.73%	0.0092	✓	0.85	6.2M	2022-02-21
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0708	0.070162	-0.90%	0.0613	-13.42%	0.0198	✗	1.11	19k	2022-02-21
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		93.76	92.9276	-0.89%	80.87	-13.75%	0.0132	✓	0.90	1.2M	2022-02-21
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	21.2	21.0122	-0.89%	17.63	-16.84%	0.0374	✗	1.53	375k	2022-02-21
KCS	KuCoin	native	19.607	19.4354	-0.88%	18.137	-7.50%	0.1146	✗	1.32	10.2M	2022-02-21
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9283	0.920185	-0.87%	0.7421	-20.06%	0.0014	✓	1.54	588k	2022-02-21
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.341	2.3211	-0.85%	1.933	-17.43%	0.0293	✓	1.10	21k	2022-02-21
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.47	5.4241	-0.84%	4.83	-11.70%	0.0062	✓	0.79	404k	2022-02-21
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.7	1.6858	-0.84%	1.37	-19.41%	0.0315	✓	1.26	1.3M	2022-02-21
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01033	0.010244	-0.83%	0.00847	-18.01%	0.0469	✓	1.03	483k	2022-02-21
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	124.62	123.586	-0.83%	102.78	-17.53%	0.0097	✓	1.26	34.8M	2022-02-21
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	167.33	165.9501	-0.82%	125.92	-24.75%	0.1095	✓	1.20	930k	2022-02-21
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	7.22	7.1611	-0.82%	6.72	-6.93%	0.0230	✓	0.29	1.2M	2022-02-21
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.47	6.4173	-0.82%	5.27	-18.55%	0.0804	✓	0.84	463k	2022-02-21
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.759	0.753023	-0.79%	0.64	-15.68%	0.0109	✓	1.09	1.6M	2022-02-21
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	1.81	1.7958	-0.78%	1.3	-28.18%	0.1309	✓	1.38	2.9M	2022-02-21
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.29	2.2723	-0.77%	1.58	-31.00%	0.2281	✓	0.97	3.2M	2022-02-21
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.2742	0.272083	-0.77%	0.2042	-25.53%	0.0692	✓	1.57	4.2M	2022-02-21
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.39	5.3499	-0.74%	5.07	-5.94%	0.0975	✗	1.09	682k	2022-02-21
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	83.68	83.0595	-0.74%	68.7997	-17.78%	0.0155	✗	1.47	315k	2022-02-21
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	10.62	10.5415	-0.74%	8.52	-19.77%	0.0275	✓	1.33	12.5M	2022-02-21
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.7556	1.7427	-0.74%	1.6127	-8.14%	0.0807	✗	1.14	67k	2022-02-21
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,931.01	2,909.59	-0.73%	2,569.00	-12.35%	0.0315	✗	1.12	572.6M	2022-02-21
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.4478	0.444567	-0.72%	0.3661	-18.24%	0.0145	✗	1.50	2.0M	2022-02-21
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.593972	0.589709	-0.72%	0.519067	-12.61%	0.0332	✗	1.16	3.5M	2022-02-21
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.039	1.0318	-0.70%	1.1385	+9.58%	0.2648	✗	1.20	2.3M	2022-02-21
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.259	1.2504	-0.68%	1.003	-20.33%	0.0487	✓	1.23	3.2M	2022-02-21
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	123.15	122.3233	-0.67%	106.4	-13.60%	0.0412	✗	1.30	59k	2022-02-21
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	9.58	9.5201	-0.62%	8.64	-9.81%	0.0905	✗	1.35	2.9M	2022-02-21
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.225	3.2052	-0.61%	2.583	-19.91%	0.1018	✓	0.82	218k	2022-02-21
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.1432	2.1303	-0.60%	1.9047	-11.13%	0.0619	✗	1.25	436k	2022-02-21
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.4039	0.401493	-0.60%	0.3572	-11.56%	0.0675	✗	1.33	8.7M	2022-02-21
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.56	2.5453	-0.57%	2.17	-15.23%	0.0168	✓	1.03	406k	2022-02-21
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.1301	1.1237	-0.57%	0.88573	-21.62%	0.0945	✓	1.03	211k	2022-02-21
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.02976	0.029598	-0.54%	0.01937	-34.91%	0.2642	✓	1.15	10.0M	2022-02-21
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6376	0.634393	-0.50%	0.4442	-30.33%	0.1422	✓	1.54	718k	2022-02-21
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.128	7.0934	-0.49%	6.04	-15.26%	0.1199	✓	0.29	38k	2022-02-21
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.6557	6.624	-0.48%	6.0829	-8.61%	0.0374	✗	0.88	3.9M	2022-02-21
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.017	5.9896	-0.46%	5.241	-12.90%	0.0131	✓	0.87	72k	2022-02-21
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	17.04	16.9629	-0.45%	13.9	-18.43%	0.0440	✗	1.75	3.7M	2022-02-21
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	26.44	26.323	-0.44%	21.87	-17.28%	0.0300	✗	1.55	2.0M	2022-02-21
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	4.58	4.5603	-0.43%	3.73	-18.56%	0.0298	✓	1.23	2.6M	2022-02-21
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.0983	0.097933	-0.37%	0.0877	-10.78%	0.1035	✗	1.54	1.1M	2022-02-21
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5481	0.546168	-0.35%	0.4728	-13.74%	0.0449	✗	1.36	2.4M	2022-02-21
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	5.66	5.6415	-0.33%	4.2	-25.80%	0.1470	✓	1.06	590k	2022-02-21
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.064484	0.064295	-0.29%	0.059472	-7.77%	0.0446	✗	0.88	327k	2022-02-21
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.05226	0.052114	-0.28%	0.04508	-13.74%	0.0503	✗	1.40	1.2M	2022-02-21
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	330.66	329.75	-0.28%	283.16	-14.37%	0.0134	✓	1.00	8.9M	2022-02-21
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.909	0.907106	-0.21%	0.739	-18.70%	0.0151	✓	1.36	2.4M	2022-02-21
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.1719	0.17256	+0.38%	0.15154	-11.84%	0.0965	✓	1.63	34k	2022-02-21

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.