2022-01-31 · +7d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 145 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.2745

145 of 145 tokens assessed

long-short decile

+11.22%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

52.4%

in alpha space · 6.2% on raw price

BTC over horizon

+13.97%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (145 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▾	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.037542	0.037737	+0.52%	0.038389	+2.26%	0.1660	✗	1.40	172k	2022-02-07
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	7.94	7.9573	+0.22%	10.33	+30.10%	0.0877	✓	1.33	2.8M	2022-02-07
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	285.23	285.3653	+0.05%	343.12	+20.30%	0.0476	✓	1.05	6.8M	2022-02-07
NANO	nanopay	Base	2.1315	2.1246	-0.33%	2.3627	+10.84%	0.0559	✓	1.24	888k	2022-02-07
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.00728	0.007256	-0.34%	0.00701	-3.71%	0.3408	✓	2.34	23.2M	2022-02-07
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	0.82	0.81712	-0.35%	1.24	+51.22%	0.2172	✗	1.53	490k	2022-02-07
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	0.915	0.911425	-0.39%	1.073	+17.27%	0.0169	✓	1.38	2.3M	2022-02-07
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	75.0775	74.7236	-0.47%	105.8832	+41.03%	0.1822	✗	1.27	410k	2022-02-07
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.059132	0.058824	-0.52%	0.068517	+15.87%	0.0308	✗	0.93	431k	2022-02-07
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	94.57	94.0361	-0.56%	128.86	+36.26%	0.1383	✗	1.35	6.6M	2022-02-07
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	0.6166	0.61275	-0.62%	0.7902	+28.15%	0.0530	✗	1.54	1.2M	2022-02-07
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.5492	0.545279	-0.71%	0.6374	+16.06%	0.0184	✓	1.34	2.7M	2022-02-07
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	159.75	158.5893	-0.73%	198.23	+24.09%	0.0691	✗	1.18	1.2M	2022-02-07
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.00002142	0.000021264	-0.73%	0.00003255	+51.96%	0.2412	✗	1.41	1.6M	2022-02-07
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	1.5526	1.5411	-0.74%	1.9231	+23.87%	0.0758	✗	1.11	82k	2022-02-07
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	121.39	120.497	-0.74%	145.96	+20.24%	0.0205	✗	1.31	65k	2022-02-07
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.04586	0.045519	-0.74%	0.04107	-10.44%	0.2483	✓	1.11	9.2M	2022-02-07
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	2,689.72	2,668.92	-0.77%	3,141.89	+16.81%	0.0186	✗	1.11	557.7M	2022-02-07
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	0.64	0.634902	-0.80%	0.95	+48.44%	0.1602	✗	1.86	1.1M	2022-02-07
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	109.55	108.6774	-0.80%	137.43	+25.45%	0.0583	✗	1.35	33.8M	2022-02-07
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	0.731	0.725131	-0.80%	0.854	+16.83%	0.0241	✗	1.07	1.7M	2022-02-07
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	6.119	6.0696	-0.81%	6.962	+13.78%	0.0253	✗	0.86	118k	2022-02-07
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	6.54	6.487	-0.81%	7.41	+13.30%	0.1034	✗	0.23	1.1M	2022-02-07
XMR	Monero	Monero	147.48	146.2348	-0.84%	185.08	+25.49%	0.1021	✗	1.02	1.9M	2022-02-07
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.567335	0.562417	-0.87%	0.67955	+19.78%	0.0297	✗	1.22	3.3M	2022-02-07
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.409	0.405432	-0.87%	0.5065	+23.84%	0.0515	✗	1.31	10.0M	2022-02-07
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	6.25	6.195	-0.88%	7.38	+18.08%	0.0514	✗	0.95	892k	2022-02-07
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.1889	0.187162	-0.92%	0.2345	+24.14%	0.0498	✗	1.34	3.8M	2022-02-07
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	97.15	96.2514	-0.92%	154.1	+58.62%	0.3332	✗	1.05	7.5M	2022-02-07
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.039278	0.038907	-0.94%	0.042745	+8.83%	0.0697	✓	1.25	9.4M	2022-02-07
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	27.02	26.7631	-0.95%	32.06	+18.65%	0.0366	✓	1.66	2.6M	2022-02-07
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.2423	0.239969	-0.96%	0.2714	+12.01%	0.0300	✓	1.17	1.9M	2022-02-07
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		7.318	7.2474	-0.96%	8.971	+22.59%	0.1832	✗	0.23	40k	2022-02-07
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.7199	3.684	-0.97%	4.8233	+29.66%	0.2719	✗	-0.02	350k	2022-02-07
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.867	6.8004	-0.97%	7.3085	+6.43%	0.0520	✓	0.95	4.2M	2022-02-07
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.042	3.012	-0.99%	3.306	+8.68%	0.0130	✓	0.81	342k	2022-02-07
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	25.67	25.4066	-1.03%	32.66	+27.23%	0.1088	✗	1.09	3.3M	2022-02-07
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	2.39	2.3653	-1.03%	3.09	+29.29%	0.1096	✗	1.21	602k	2022-02-07
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.464	0.459148	-1.05%	0.535	+15.30%	0.0300	✓	1.40	2.2M	2022-02-07
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	20.15	19.9356	-1.06%	21.81	+8.24%	0.1519	✓	1.85	3.9M	2022-02-07
KCS	KuCoin	native	18.065	17.8728	-1.06%	20.309	+12.42%	0.0714	✓	1.52	10.6M	2022-02-07
SOL	Solana	Solana	99.52	98.4477	-1.08%	117.62	+18.19%	0.0230	✗	1.19	165.9M	2022-02-07
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	11.78	11.6519	-1.09%	12.38	+5.09%	0.1179	✓	1.37	12.5M	2022-02-07
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.1648	1.1521	-1.09%	1.3981	+20.03%	0.0599	✗	1.02	352k	2022-02-07
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.247	0.24429	-1.10%	0.285	+15.38%	0.0296	✗	0.95	63k	2022-02-07
SC	Siacoin	native	0.00994	0.009831	-1.10%	0.01211	+21.83%	0.0726	✗	1.04	588k	2022-02-07
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	2.5	2.4722	-1.11%	2.82	+12.80%	0.0012	✓	1.02	754k	2022-02-07
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.058	0.057338	-1.14%	0.06292	+8.48%	0.0938	✓	1.43	1.7M	2022-02-07
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.02978	0.029439	-1.14%	0.03323	+11.58%	0.0031	✓	0.90	8.7M	2022-02-07
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.04045	0.039986	-1.15%	0.04657	+15.13%	0.0060	✓	1.12	29k	2022-02-07
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	2.15	2.1251	-1.16%	2.38	+10.70%	0.0902	✓	1.56	2.3M	2022-02-07
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	6.26	6.1857	-1.19%	6.65	+6.23%	0.0317	✓	0.80	504k	2022-02-07
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.491	0.485156	-1.19%	0.583	+18.74%	0.0172	✓	1.54	5.0M	2022-02-07
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	69.92	69.0783	-1.20%	83.23	+19.04%	0.0107	✓	1.34	85.3M	2022-02-07
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	0.8338	0.823688	-1.21%	0.9985	+19.75%	0.0451	✗	1.13	16.8M	2022-02-07
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	5.25	5.1859	-1.22%	5.62	+7.05%	0.0156	✓	0.73	429k	2022-02-07
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	52.15	51.5121	-1.22%	59.48	+14.06%	0.0776	✓	1.69	8.8M	2022-02-07
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1136	0.112181	-1.25%	0.1382	+21.65%	0.0350	✗	1.33	3.8M	2022-02-07
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.318	0.313969	-1.27%	0.384	+20.75%	0.0232	✗	1.36	1.7M	2022-02-07
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.0903	1.0764	-1.27%	1.3002	+19.26%	0.0287	✗	1.23	2.4M	2022-02-07
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.08784	0.086717	-1.28%	0.10441	+18.86%	0.0432	✗	1.09	46k	2022-02-07
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.00993	0.009802	-1.29%	0.01584	+59.52%	0.3096	✗	1.30	2.1M	2022-02-07
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.014268	0.014083	-1.29%	0.01721	+20.62%	0.0478	✗	1.17	2.7M	2022-02-07
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	1.68	1.6582	-1.30%	1.93	+14.88%	0.0178	✓	1.30	2.1M	2022-02-07
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	2.69	2.6549	-1.30%	2.86	+6.32%	0.1288	✓	1.55	2.2M	2022-02-07
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	4.108	4.0543	-1.31%	4.576	+11.39%	0.0155	✗	0.81	367k	2022-02-07
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0658	0.064939	-1.31%	0.079	+20.06%	0.0510	✗	1.11	21k	2022-02-07
GLMR	Moonbeam	Base	5.389	5.3183	-1.31%	6.287	+16.66%	0.0366	✗	1.00	1.4M	2022-02-07
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	2.16	2.1315	-1.32%	2.26	+4.63%	0.1430	✓	1.54	4.2M	2022-02-07
NCT	PolySwarm	Ethereum	0.04985	0.049193	-1.32%	0.04778	-4.15%	0.1599	✓	1.00	5.5M	2022-02-07
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.359	1.3411	-1.32%	1.495	+10.01%	0.0567	✓	1.26	3.5M	2022-02-07
ZEN	Horizen	Base	41	40.4548	-1.33%	48.2	+17.56%	0.0377	✓	1.63	626k	2022-02-07
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		91.32	90.0881	-1.35%	101.78	+11.45%	0.0018	✓	0.95	1.6M	2022-02-07
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.247	2.2167	-1.35%	2.656	+18.20%	0.0384	✗	1.09	23k	2022-02-07
DASH	Dash	Dash	94.18	92.9042	-1.35%	115.9	+23.06%	0.0670	✗	1.18	2.9M	2022-02-07
XEC	eCash	native	0.00007633	0.000075287	-1.37%	0.00009007	+18.00%	0.0319	✗	1.13	5.8M	2022-02-07
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.19016	0.187557	-1.37%	0.22724	+19.50%	0.0192	✓	1.62	24k	2022-02-07
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	6.0678	5.9843	-1.38%	7.4703	+23.11%	0.0308	✗	1.46	181k	2022-02-07
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	38,491.93	37,961.11	-1.38%	43,868.07	+13.97%	0.0139	✓	1.00	717.4M	2022-02-07
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	0.9985	0.984644	-1.39%	1.1664	+16.82%	0.0703	✓	1.83	929k	2022-02-07
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0619	0.06104	-1.39%	0.0915	+47.82%	0.2330	✗	1.31	564k	2022-02-07
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.021024	0.02073	-1.40%	0.023054	+9.66%	0.0273	✓	1.02	3.1M	2022-02-07
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.0665	3.0234	-1.41%	3.4602	+12.84%	0.0018	✓	1.05	2.0M	2022-02-07
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	0.8388	0.826958	-1.41%	1.2268	+46.26%	0.1976	✗	1.51	106k	2022-02-07
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	20.51	20.2133	-1.45%	25.54	+24.52%	0.0265	✗	1.59	556k	2022-02-07
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	3.4938	3.4429	-1.46%	4.1408	+18.52%	0.0018	✓	1.40	2.4M	2022-02-07
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	52.38	51.6162	-1.46%	68.32	+30.43%	0.1285	✗	1.16	8.0M	2022-02-07
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	2.683	2.6438	-1.46%	2.945	+9.77%	0.0918	✓	1.53	986k	2022-02-07
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	157.59	155.2723	-1.47%	182.29	+15.67%	0.0220	✓	1.40	12.7M	2022-02-07
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	5.95	5.8624	-1.47%	6.61	+11.09%	0.0220	✓	1.09	2.1M	2022-02-07
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.1164	3.0703	-1.48%	3.5646	+14.38%	0.0021	✓	1.13	2.9M	2022-02-07
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	6.27	6.1766	-1.49%	6.79	+8.29%	0.0190	✓	0.87	529k	2022-02-07
BAND	Band	Ethereum	3.48	3.4277	-1.50%	4.06	+16.67%	0.0033	✓	1.27	2.5M	2022-02-07
HIVE	Hive	native	0.9619	0.947404	-1.51%	1.2317	+28.05%	0.0617	✗	1.54	2.0M	2022-02-07
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	0.9504	0.935961	-1.52%	1.0706	+12.65%	0.0194	✓	1.18	34.5M	2022-02-07
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	38,589.30	38,000.16	-1.53%	43,893.50	+13.75%	0.0113	✓	1.02	51k	2022-02-07
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	3.227	3.1769	-1.55%	3.76	+16.52%	0.0572	✗	0.85	819k	2022-02-07
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.0812	0.079923	-1.57%	0.0948	+16.75%	0.0091	✓	1.24	317k	2022-02-07
XVG	Verge	native	0.01022	0.010058	-1.59%	0.01222	+19.57%	0.0199	✗	1.34	1.6M	2022-02-07
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.2718	0.267471	-1.59%	0.3267	+20.20%	0.0501	✗	1.15	557k	2022-02-07
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3291	0.323708	-1.64%	0.3247	-1.34%	0.2096	✓	1.63	4.2M	2022-02-07
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.199723	0.196426	-1.65%	0.239623	+19.98%	0.0630	✗	1.04	26.2M	2022-02-07
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	9.62	9.4604	-1.66%	10.4	+8.11%	0.0039	✓	0.75	744k	2022-02-07
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.141646	0.139272	-1.68%	0.165291	+16.69%	0.0320	✗	1.07	7.1M	2022-02-07
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.547	1.5209	-1.69%	1.868	+20.75%	0.0474	✗	1.21	1.6M	2022-02-07
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	19.39	19.0585	-1.71%	22.37	+15.37%	0.0226	✓	1.40	50.2M	2022-02-07
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	5.904	5.802	-1.73%	7.753	+31.32%	0.1536	✗	1.04	341k	2022-02-07
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	5.8	5.6995	-1.73%	6	+3.45%	0.0868	✓	1.06	1.0M	2022-02-07
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.0524	1.034	-1.74%	1.1991	+13.94%	0.0015	✓	1.14	113.2M	2022-02-07
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	0.4369	0.429171	-1.77%	0.6483	+48.39%	0.2035	✗	1.60	2.0M	2022-02-07
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0352	0.03457	-1.79%	0.0369	+4.83%	0.1268	✓	1.47	617k	2022-02-07
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	28.07	27.5607	-1.81%	31.63	+12.68%	0.0130	✓	1.15	120.6M	2022-02-07
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	5.0138	4.9228	-1.82%	5.4029	+7.76%	0.0710	✓	1.26	430k	2022-02-07
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.41	3.348	-1.82%	3.79	+11.14%	0.0993	✗	0.19	1.4M	2022-02-07
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	14.25	13.9805	-1.89%	16.23	+13.89%	0.0577	✗	0.70	841k	2022-02-07
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	21.3	20.8957	-1.90%	24.52	+15.12%	0.0010	✓	1.22	12.6M	2022-02-07
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	14.36	14.0857	-1.91%	16.8	+16.99%	0.0473	✗	0.99	814k	2022-02-07
XEM	NEM	native	0.1022	0.100247	-1.91%	0.1175	+14.97%	0.0258	✗	1.02	41k	2022-02-07
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	1.888	1.8518	-1.92%	2.094	+10.91%	0.0398	✓	1.24	1.5M	2022-02-07
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	0.85261	0.835705	-1.98%	0.96686	+13.40%	0.0811	✓	1.74	534k	2022-02-07
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	1.95	1.9113	-1.98%	2.27	+16.41%	0.0015	✓	1.30	2.8M	2022-02-07
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	17.16	16.8175	-2.00%	18.88	+10.02%	0.0435	✓	1.22	88.8M	2022-02-07
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1215	0.118956	-2.09%	0.1248	+2.72%	0.1481	✓	1.50	1.7M	2022-02-07
XYM	Symbol	native	0.1836	0.179724	-2.11%	0.1916	+4.36%	0.0247	✓	0.68	495k	2022-02-07
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.1775	3.1099	-2.13%	3.7993	+19.57%	0.0820	✗	0.90	22k	2022-02-07
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01331	0.013024	-2.15%	0.01354	+1.73%	0.0782	✓	0.90	14k	2022-02-07
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	25.21	24.6573	-2.19%	28.02	+11.15%	0.0257	✗	0.78	447k	2022-02-07
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	7.35	7.1861	-2.23%	9.06	+23.27%	0.1960	✗	0.27	1.8M	2022-02-07
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	3.27	3.1941	-2.32%	3.56	+8.87%	0.0815	✓	1.45	24.6M	2022-02-07
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	4.23	4.1317	-2.32%	4.96	+17.26%	0.0001	✓	1.40	9.3M	2022-02-07
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	2.8223	2.7559	-2.35%	3.2878	+16.49%	0.0490	✗	0.98	2.8M	2022-02-07
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.07979	0.077913	-2.35%	0.08985	+12.61%	0.0467	✗	0.73	84k	2022-02-07
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.5403	0.527195	-2.43%	0.602	+11.42%	0.1141	✓	1.89	48.9M	2022-02-07
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	43.58	42.3536	-2.81%	47.22	+8.35%	0.0525	✓	1.23	37.0M	2022-02-07
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	19.82	19.2513	-2.87%	24.04	+21.29%	0.0553	✗	1.28	34.3M	2022-02-07
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1361	0.132155	-2.90%	0.1593	+17.05%	0.0585	✗	0.98	312k	2022-02-07
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.73	5.559	-2.99%	5.9	+2.97%	0.1111	✓	1.31	3.2M	2022-02-07
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.887	1.8296	-3.04%	1.9987	+5.92%	0.0067	✓	0.73	3.1M	2022-02-07
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.549	0.532309	-3.04%	0.6257	+13.97%	0.0087	✓	1.17	2.1M	2022-02-07
PRO	Propy	Ethereum	2.31	2.2392	-3.06%	2.2	-4.76%	0.1484	✓	1.00	3.4M	2022-02-07
POKT	Pocket Network	Ethereum	1.2778	1.2328	-3.52%	1.299	+1.66%	0.0784	✓	1.00	3.1M	2022-02-07
STX	Stacks	native	1.49	1.4343	-3.74%	1.72	+15.44%	0.0509	✗	1.00	2.0M	2022-02-07
ASTR	Astar	Ethereum	0.122	0.117425	-3.75%	0.133	+9.02%	0.0062	✓	1.00	141k	2022-02-07
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	24,852.85	23,675.77	-4.74%	26,559.72	+6.87%	0.0084	✓	0.94	16.4M	2022-02-07
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0975	0.090216	-7.47%	0.0901	-7.59%	0.3482	✓	2.65	24.9M	2022-02-07

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.