2022-01-12 · +7d

lstm_s4 · in-sample — the model trained on this date · 139 tokens predicted

These numbers are in-sample. The model was trained on this date, so predicted-vs-actual agreement here is not evidence of skill.

+1d +7d +30d asset cohort only

rank IC

+0.0970

139 of 139 tokens assessed

long-short decile

-0.01%

realised beta-adjusted alpha

direction hit

77.7%

in alpha space · 89.9% on raw price

BTC over horizon

-5.11%

the unhedgeable market factor

Predicted vs actual (139 rows, sorted by pred)

token	name	chain	anchor px	pred px ▴	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d	vol 30d	target
SANTOS	Santos FC Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	3.605	3.3988	-5.72%	3.282	-8.96%	0.0560	✓	1.73	1.2M	2022-01-19
POWR	Powerledger	Ethereum	0.6228	0.596754	-4.18%	0.5701	-8.46%	0.0293	✓	1.43	736k	2022-01-19
GTC	Gitcoin	Ethereum	12	11.5065	-4.11%	10.21	-14.92%	0.1116	✓	0.15	2.8M	2022-01-19
NAKA	Nakamoto Games	Polygon	1.1869	1.1404	-3.92%	0.7592	-36.04%	0.3557	✓	0.97	3.1M	2022-01-19
DUSK	DUSK	Ethereum	0.7422	0.71327	-3.90%	0.8466	+14.07%	0.2654	✗	1.79	38.7M	2022-01-19
BFC	Bifrost	Ethereum	0.18305	0.176586	-3.53%	0.19913	+8.78%	0.2023	✗	1.57	5,360	2022-01-19
CELL	Cellframe	Ethereum	1.0214	0.986202	-3.45%	1.0457	+2.38%	0.1107	✗	0.99	116k	2022-01-19
CWEB	Coinweb	Ethereum	0.081805	0.079004	-3.42%	0.07511	-8.18%	0.0019	✓	1.00	2.7M	2022-01-19
HIVE	Hive	native	1.3807	1.3335	-3.42%	1.1386	-17.53%	0.0852	✓	1.39	4.3M	2022-01-19
UOS	Ultra	Ethereum	1.3521	1.3071	-3.33%	1.1693	-13.52%	0.0567	✓	1.04	3.3M	2022-01-19
MANA	Decentraland	Ethereum	3.0897	2.9921	-3.16%	2.7346	-11.49%	0.0374	✓	1.00	5.3M	2022-01-19
METRONOME	METRONOME		3.9279	3.8057	-3.11%	3.9939	+1.68%	0.0878	✗	0.75	2,942	2022-01-19
STORJ	Storj	Ethereum	1.667	1.6165	-3.03%	1.462	-12.30%	0.0550	✓	0.87	581k	2022-01-19
DEXE	DeXe	Ethereum	10.07	9.7655	-3.02%	8.35	-17.08%	0.1587	✓	-0.04	1.6M	2022-01-19
API3	Api3	Ethereum	3.79	3.6811	-2.87%	4.35	+14.78%	0.2061	✗	0.75	481k	2022-01-19
YFI	yearn.finance	Ethereum	33,839.55	32,869.61	-2.87%	32,142.29	-5.02%	0.0115	✓	0.65	26.4M	2022-01-19
DYDX	dYdX	Cosmos	7.779	7.5629	-2.78%	7.009	-9.90%	0.0072	✓	1.31	271k	2022-01-19
AVAX	Avalanche	Avalanche	96.02	93.4506	-2.68%	82.64	-13.93%	0.0615	✓	1.17	110.4M	2022-01-19
CTSI	Cartesi	Ethereum	0.6859	0.667902	-2.62%	0.5784	-15.67%	0.0700	✓	1.41	2.7M	2022-01-19
FTT	FTX	Ethereum	41.43	40.3498	-2.61%	46.67	+12.65%	0.2032	✗	1.10	21.0M	2022-01-19
LUNA	Terra	Terra 2	81.93	79.8804	-2.50%	81.27	-0.81%	0.0697	✗	1.00	7.4M	2022-01-19
LINK	Chainlink	Ethereum	26.76	26.0957	-2.48%	21.56	-19.43%	0.1293	✓	1.17	70.9M	2022-01-19
GITCOIN	GITCOIN		11.904	11.615	-2.43%	10.274	-13.69%	0.1179	✓	0.09	54k	2022-01-19
ATOM	Cosmos Hub	Cosmos	40.25	39.2757	-2.42%	37.07	-7.90%	0.0095	✓	0.92	72.1M	2022-01-19
BAND	Band	Ethereum	5.64	5.5038	-2.41%	4.91	-12.94%	0.0546	✓	1.14	2.4M	2022-01-19
CRV	Curve DAO	Ethereum	4.91	4.7931	-2.38%	4.19	-14.66%	0.0604	✓	1.41	30.4M	2022-01-19
MASK	Mask Network	Ethereum	10.21	9.9682	-2.37%	8.43	-17.43%	0.1310	✓	0.70	1.1M	2022-01-19
XLM	Stellar	Stellar	0.282353	0.275751	-2.34%	0.245567	-13.03%	0.0614	✓	1.04	24.9M	2022-01-19
BAT	Basic Attention	Ethereum	1.1158	1.0899	-2.32%	0.95676	-14.25%	0.0370	✓	1.78	1.0M	2022-01-19
XEM	NEM	native	0.1192	0.116433	-2.32%	0.1126	-5.54%	0.0218	✓	1.05	62k	2022-01-19
SPELL	Spell	Ethereum	0.01576	0.015396	-2.31%	0.01172	-25.63%	0.1483	✓	2.37	26.8M	2022-01-19
ALGO	Algorand	Algorand	1.4989	1.4649	-2.27%	1.2659	-15.54%	0.0856	✓	1.15	30.5M	2022-01-19
AUCTION	Bounce	Ethereum	20.88	20.4068	-2.27%	19.03	-8.86%	0.0152	✓	1.04	1.0M	2022-01-19
CVC	Civic	Ethereum	0.3384	0.330806	-2.24%	0.2983	-11.85%	0.0503	✓	1.01	397k	2022-01-19
SUSHI	Sushi	Ethereum	7.12	6.9609	-2.24%	6.05	-15.03%	0.0719	✓	1.30	17.7M	2022-01-19
CBK	Cobak	Ethereum	2.853	2.7907	-2.18%	2.623	-8.06%	0.0145	✓	0.90	27k	2022-01-19
RLC	iExec RLC	Ethereum	2.89	2.8275	-2.16%	2.47	-14.53%	0.0660	✓	1.32	3.2M	2022-01-19
CITY	Manchester City Fan Token	Solana	10.52	10.2938	-2.15%	10.22	-2.85%	0.0324	✗	0.75	994k	2022-01-19
DOT	Polkadot	Polkadot	27.32	26.7326	-2.15%	24.06	-11.93%	0.0356	✓	1.33	68.4M	2022-01-19
ICP	Internet Computer	Ethereum	34.99	34.2377	-2.15%	26.53	-24.18%	0.1824	✓	1.38	31.1M	2022-01-19
ADA	Cardano	Cardano	1.313	1.2852	-2.12%	1.3366	+1.80%	0.0987	✗	1.13	95.6M	2022-01-19
OMG	OMG Network	Ethereum	5.895	5.7712	-2.10%	5.4486	-7.57%	0.0070	✓	1.23	446k	2022-01-19
ENJ	Enjin Coin	Ethereum	2.521	2.4681	-2.10%	2.219	-11.98%	0.0483	✓	1.11	1.9M	2022-01-19
NMR	Numeraire	Ethereum	28.89	28.2838	-2.10%	26.81	-7.20%	0.0167	✓	0.70	360k	2022-01-19
VSYS	V.SYSTEMS	native	0.01729	0.016928	-2.09%	0.01585	-8.33%	0.0286	✓	0.71	25k	2022-01-19
DNT	district0x	Ethereum	0.1144	0.11202	-2.08%	0.1012	-11.54%	0.0434	✓	1.11	303k	2022-01-19
MINA	Mina Protocol	native	3.59	3.516	-2.06%	3.39	-5.57%	0.0190	✓	1.06	807k	2022-01-19
ANKR	Ankr Network	Ethereum	0.09754	0.095534	-2.06%	0.0853	-12.55%	0.0758	✓	0.71	48k	2022-01-19
SUPER	SuperVerse	Ethereum	1.17	1.146	-2.05%	0.93	-20.51%	0.1093	✓	1.90	1.7M	2022-01-19
LPT	Livepeer	Ethereum	39.17	38.3661	-2.05%	32.43	-17.21%	0.0817	✓	1.65	2.7M	2022-01-19
LAZIO	Lazio Fan Token	Binance Smart Chain	4.2739	4.1876	-2.02%	4	-6.41%	0.0217	✗	1.29	4.1M	2022-01-19
PSG	Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token	Solana	15.33	15.0205	-2.02%	14.85	-3.13%	0.0241	✗	0.68	1.1M	2022-01-19
OGN	Origin Token	Ethereum	0.539	0.528316	-1.98%	0.469	-12.99%	0.0511	✓	1.29	2.1M	2022-01-19
DASH	Dash	Dash	143.32	140.5022	-1.97%	126.8	-11.53%	0.0389	✓	1.21	2.5M	2022-01-19
PORTO	FC Porto	Binance Smart Chain	3.2451	3.1814	-1.96%	3.1421	-3.17%	0.0509	✗	1.21	2.5M	2022-01-19
XVG	Verge	native	0.01475	0.014464	-1.94%	0.01267	-14.10%	0.0680	✓	1.23	2.1M	2022-01-19
PHA	PHALA	Ethereum	0.379	0.37167	-1.93%	0.349	-7.92%	0.0237	✓	0.75	40k	2022-01-19
DOGE	Dogecoin	Dogecoin	0.162908	0.159825	-1.89%	0.161705	-0.74%	0.0704	✗	1.12	5.4M	2022-01-19
RIF	Rootstock Infrastructure Framework	Ethereum	0.1826	0.179169	-1.88%	0.1712	-6.24%	0.0026	✓	0.92	450k	2022-01-19
UMA	UMA	Ethereum	8.89	8.7236	-1.87%	8.26	-7.09%	0.0045	✓	0.96	4.4M	2022-01-19
XPR	XPR Network	Ethereum	0.01542	0.015132	-1.87%	0.01394	-9.60%	0.0131	✓	1.31	2.2M	2022-01-19
ACM	AC Milan Fan Token	Solana	5.032	4.9388	-1.85%	4.793	-4.75%	0.0050	✓	0.67	481k	2022-01-19
DODO	DODO	Ethereum	0.833	0.817677	-1.84%	0.701	-15.85%	0.0767	✓	1.47	8.0M	2022-01-19
XYM	Symbol	native	0.2011	0.197427	-1.83%	0.1786	-11.19%	0.0650	✓	0.67	441k	2022-01-19
KNC	Kyber Network Crystal	Ethereum	1.4029	1.3773	-1.83%	1.537	+9.56%	0.1552	✗	0.87	922k	2022-01-19
SHIB	Shiba Inu	Ethereum	0.0000315	0.000030929	-1.81%	0.00002726	-13.46%	0.0565	✓	1.33	1.7M	2022-01-19
JUV	Juventus Fan Token	Solana	8.19	8.0419	-1.81%	7.57	-7.57%	0.0200	✓	0.77	767k	2022-01-19
GODS	Gods Unchained	Ethereum	3.02	2.9656	-1.80%	3.1	+2.65%	0.1076	✗	1.21	3.2M	2022-01-19
BICO	Biconomy	Ethereum	3.75	3.6826	-1.80%	3.33	-11.20%	0.0327	✓	1.29	9.1M	2022-01-19
QNT	Quant	Ethereum	168.76	165.7616	-1.78%	135.59	-19.66%	0.1517	✓	0.94	7.3M	2022-01-19
ZEN	Horizen	Base	59.25	58.2006	-1.77%	49.93	-15.73%	0.0745	✓	1.50	711k	2022-01-19
COTI	COTI	Ethereum	0.3542	0.348001	-1.75%	0.366	+3.33%	0.1296	✗	1.51	3.6M	2022-01-19
IOTA	IOTA	IOTA	1.1883	1.1675	-1.75%	1.0492	-11.71%	0.0552	✓	0.98	23.2M	2022-01-19
SC	Siacoin	native	0.01401	0.013766	-1.74%	0.0127	-9.35%	0.0288	✓	0.99	730k	2022-01-19
ORBS	Orbs	Ethereum	0.0825	0.081069	-1.74%	0.0761	-7.76%	0.0054	✓	1.10	19k	2022-01-19
PEOPLE	ConstitutionDAO	Ethereum	0.0819	0.08048	-1.73%	0.0575	-29.79%	0.2837	✓	1.00	28.2M	2022-01-19
FIL	Filecoin	Filecoin	30.77	30.2404	-1.72%	27.59	-10.33%	0.0358	✓	1.07	16.7M	2022-01-19
KSM	Kusama	Hydration	275.54	270.8763	-1.69%	243.71	-11.55%	0.0439	✓	1.18	1.3M	2022-01-19
DKA	dKargo	Ethereum	0.11114	0.109293	-1.66%	0.10044	-9.63%	0.0244	✓	1.15	25k	2022-01-19
BCHSV	Bitcoin Cash SV		112.64	110.7844	-1.65%	109.45	-2.83%	0.0379	✗	0.95	2.4M	2022-01-19
AXS	Axie Infinity	Ethereum	78.16	76.8841	-1.63%	71.82	-8.11%	0.0123	✓	1.06	6.3M	2022-01-19
ACH	Alchemy Pay	Ethereum	0.060875	0.059886	-1.62%	0.051115	-16.03%	0.0958	✓	1.19	7.4M	2022-01-19
XEC	eCash	native	0.00009819	0.000096608	-1.61%	0.00009227	-6.03%	0.0071	✓	1.01	6.6M	2022-01-19
MTL	Metal DAO	Metal L2	1.905	1.8743	-1.61%	1.709	-10.29%	0.0320	✓	1.15	2.3M	2022-01-19
WBTC	Wrapped Bitcoin	Ethereum	43,982.00	43,275.14	-1.61%	41,724.00	-5.13%	0.0152	✓	0.98	14k	2022-01-19
ZEC	Zcash	Zcash	144.49	142.1723	-1.60%	125.87	-12.89%	0.0529	✓	1.31	10.9M	2022-01-19
ATM	Atletico Madrid Fan Token	Solana	6.98	6.8701	-1.57%	6.36	-8.88%	0.0426	✓	0.66	643k	2022-01-19
QTUM	Qtum	Qtum	7.9176	7.7931	-1.57%	7.4032	-6.50%	0.0237	✗	1.43	273k	2022-01-19
TRB	Tellor Tributes	Ethereum	31.51	31.0156	-1.57%	26.13	-17.07%	0.0908	✓	1.54	1.0M	2022-01-19
SOL	Solana	Solana	151.56	149.2166	-1.55%	135.33	-10.71%	0.0384	✓	1.13	191.4M	2022-01-19
XYO	XYO Network	Ethereum	0.029842	0.029382	-1.54%	0.026624	-10.78%	0.0448	✓	1.03	6.3M	2022-01-19
CHZ	Chiliz	Ethereum	0.2778	0.273537	-1.53%	0.2463	-11.34%	0.0352	✓	1.33	4.4M	2022-01-19
MOVR	Moonriver	Base	169.994	167.4128	-1.52%	120.5322	-29.10%	0.2694	✓	1.13	540k	2022-01-19
AMP	Amp	Ethereum	0.04277	0.042126	-1.51%	0.03718	-13.07%	0.0775	✓	0.90	8.5M	2022-01-19
EWT	Energy Web Token	Ethereum	8.452	8.3268	-1.48%	7.272	-13.96%	0.1004	✓	0.67	209k	2022-01-19
COMP	Compound	Ethereum	196.42	193.5241	-1.47%	172.8	-12.03%	0.0519	✓	1.17	153k	2022-01-19
1INCH	1INCH	Ethereum	2.24	2.207	-1.47%	2.09	-6.70%	0.0026	✓	1.09	3.1M	2022-01-19
IMX	Immutable	Ethereum	3.73	3.6752	-1.47%	3.56	-4.56%	0.0398	✗	1.37	2.3M	2022-01-19
BTC	Bitcoin	Bitcoin	43,920.37	43,276.36	-1.47%	41,674.27	-5.11%	0.0148	✓	1.00	750.1M	2022-01-19
LRC	Loopring	Ethereum	1.6281	1.6043	-1.46%	1.1835	-27.31%	0.2039	✓	1.91	1.4M	2022-01-19
MED	Medibloc	Osmosis	0.0507	0.049961	-1.46%	0.04692	-7.46%	0.0032	✓	1.14	18k	2022-01-19
CERE	Cere Network	Ethereum	0.0604	0.059521	-1.46%	0.0486	-19.54%	0.1318	✓	1.35	1.5M	2022-01-19
SKL	SKALE	Ethereum	0.1668	0.164377	-1.45%	0.151	-9.47%	0.0200	✓	1.24	4.2M	2022-01-19
LTC	Litecoin	Litecoin	142.02	139.9816	-1.44%	136.2	-4.10%	0.0441	✗	1.36	33.4M	2022-01-19
BNT	Bancor Network	Ethereum	3.27	3.2232	-1.43%	2.91	-11.01%	0.0507	✓	0.98	949k	2022-01-19
NANO	nanopay	Base	3.2877	3.2416	-1.40%	3.0555	-7.06%	0.0001	✓	1.12	699k	2022-01-19
LSK	Lisk	Ethereum	2.1488	2.1191	-1.38%	2.0509	-4.55%	0.0257	✗	1.11	83k	2022-01-19
GT	Gate	Ethereum	6.8813	6.7863	-1.38%	7.1	+3.18%	0.0905	✗	0.86	3.8M	2022-01-19
UNI	Uniswap	Ethereum	16.29	16.0707	-1.35%	15.12	-7.18%	0.0070	✓	1.29	12.7M	2022-01-19
XMR	Monero	Monero	199.2	196.6405	-1.28%	201.62	+1.21%	0.0794	✗	1.04	2.9M	2022-01-19
BAR	FC Barcelona Fan Token	Solana	8.19	8.0864	-1.27%	7.67	-6.35%	0.0198	✓	0.63	675k	2022-01-19
ETC	Ethereum Classic	native	31.15	30.7575	-1.26%	31.27	+0.39%	0.0720	✗	1.06	3.0M	2022-01-19
GRT	The Graph	Ethereum	0.5942	0.586712	-1.26%	0.5244	-11.75%	0.0438	✓	1.30	12.2M	2022-01-19
OXT	Orchid Protocol	Ethereum	0.3269	0.322782	-1.26%	0.2982	-8.78%	0.0126	✓	1.27	2.2M	2022-01-19
JASMY	JasmyCoin	Ethereum	0.07298	0.072065	-1.25%	0.07162	-1.86%	0.0579	✗	1.22	16.9M	2022-01-19
ARPA	ARPA	Ethereum	0.0875	0.086408	-1.25%	0.0774	-11.54%	0.0373	✓	1.39	1.2M	2022-01-19
TKO	Tokocrypto	Binance Smart Chain	1.084	1.0705	-1.25%	0.96	-11.44%	0.0585	✓	0.96	2.2M	2022-01-19
KCS	KuCoin	native	20.372	20.1196	-1.24%	19.951	-2.07%	0.0763	✗	1.61	12.5M	2022-01-19
XTZ	Tezos	Tezos	4.3843	4.33	-1.24%	3.8849	-11.39%	0.0373	✓	1.36	4.6M	2022-01-19
TRAC	OriginTrail	Ethereum	1.0716	1.0584	-1.23%	0.9271	-13.48%	0.0591	✓	1.40	1.6M	2022-01-19
CTK	Shentu	Osmosis	1.49	1.472	-1.21%	1.294	-13.15%	0.0572	✓	1.37	4.9M	2022-01-19
TWT	Trust Wallet	Binance Smart Chain	0.6995	0.691072	-1.20%	0.6838	-2.24%	0.0560	✗	1.27	4.4M	2022-01-19
AGLD	Adventure Gold	Ethereum	1.43	1.4128	-1.20%	1.17	-18.18%	0.1005	✓	1.68	657k	2022-01-19
OG	OG Fan Token	Solana	4.416	4.3631	-1.20%	3.956	-10.42%	0.0566	✓	0.79	1.1M	2022-01-19
LCX	LCX	Ethereum	0.1554	0.153559	-1.18%	0.1191	-23.36%	0.1880	✓	1.26	2.4M	2022-01-19
ASR	AS Roma Fan Token	Solana	3.922	3.8759	-1.18%	3.627	-7.52%	0.0296	✓	0.70	526k	2022-01-19
SNX	Synthetix	Ethereum	5.43	5.3671	-1.16%	4.9	-9.76%	0.0297	✓	1.17	3.3M	2022-01-19
ZRX	0x Protocol	Ethereum	0.752838	0.744508	-1.11%	0.684968	-9.02%	0.0231	✓	1.15	2.6M	2022-01-19
LEO	LEO Token	Ethereum	3.8595	3.8177	-1.08%	3.6546	-5.31%	0.0472	✓	-0.07	364k	2022-01-19
SUN	Sun Token	Tron	0.01979	0.019577	-1.08%	0.01895	-4.24%	0.0319	✗	1.23	2.5M	2022-01-19
ASM	Assemble AI	Ethereum	0.08196	0.081112	-1.03%	0.07218	-11.93%	0.0421	✓	1.42	2.6M	2022-01-19
AAVE	Aave	Ethereum	218.61	216.4615	-0.98%	210.15	-3.87%	0.0316	✗	1.17	17.6M	2022-01-19
XVS	Venus	Ethereum	14.23	14.1016	-0.90%	12.52	-12.02%	0.0587	✓	1.15	3.2M	2022-01-19
ETH	Ethereum	Ethereum	3,373.64	3,343.34	-0.90%	3,085.27	-8.55%	0.0243	✓	1.07	569.1M	2022-01-19
RAD	Radworks	Ethereum	8.13	8.0579	-0.89%	7.01	-13.78%	0.0926	✓	0.89	1.1M	2022-01-19
BEL	Bella Protocol	Ethereum	1.363	1.3518	-0.82%	1.222	-10.34%	0.0299	✓	1.35	2.8M	2022-01-19
TRX	TRON	Tron	0.068101	0.067678	-0.62%	0.069192	+1.60%	0.0724	✗	0.96	536k	2022-01-19
ENS	Ethereum Name Service	Ethereum	27.99	27.8487	-0.50%	22.14	-20.90%	0.1333	✓	1.83	4.5M	2022-01-19
BCH	Bitcoin Cash	Bitcoin Cash	383.83	381.9794	-0.48%	369.1	-3.84%	0.0192	✗	1.02	8.3M	2022-01-19

Δ columns are percentage price moves; alpha err and the hit column are in beta-adjusted log-return space, which is what the model actually predicts. “pending” means the horizon has not matured yet. Rows are capped for readability — add &limit=2000 to widen.