UMX

UMX · · lstm_s3

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +7d

assessed

60

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

80.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0680

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0083

actual -0.0708

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046168	-0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042466	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054259	-1.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054771	-1.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055208	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058344	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058303	-1.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058538	-1.35%	0.0466	-21.47%	0.2321	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058643	-1.31%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3116	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059563	-1.42%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0773	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059423	-1.30%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0629	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059831	-1.38%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0624	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060088	-1.41%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0122	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059687	-1.39%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0126	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061064	-1.23%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0213	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.06129	-0.69%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0193	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061257	-0.70%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0060	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061438	-0.44%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0060	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060782	-1.00%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0072	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061078	-1.01%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0076	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061054	-0.69%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0076	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060782	-0.99%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0184	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060719	-0.80%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0067	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.06012	-0.82%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0142	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.06043	-0.51%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0101	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060746	-0.51%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0089	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060543	-0.61%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0167	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060859	-0.51%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0075	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060859	-0.51%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0134	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060693	-0.07%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0250	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.061153	-0.03%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0120	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060598	-1.36%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0196	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059663	-1.32%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0014	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060532	-1.37%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0158	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059916	-2.02%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0308	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.06077	-2.00%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0465	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.05972	-1.87%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0496	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059614	-1.50%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0415	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.05984	-1.54%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0085	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.061685	-1.45%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0525	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064109	-1.44%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0739	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064152	-1.40%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0464	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.0642	-1.02%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0136	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.06588	-0.93%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0503	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067584	-0.71%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.1009	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069781	-0.21%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0984	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071648	-0.32%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.1024	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071854	-0.30%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0681	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073343	+0.29%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0599	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073499	-1.00%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1376	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.07373	-0.87%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1168	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.07471	-0.32%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0999	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075343	-0.59%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.1084	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074933	-0.26%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0619	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.076072	-0.34%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0774	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.077141	+0.24%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0656	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082164	-0.01%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0794	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083448	-0.12%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.1006	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088604	-0.12%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1620	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.08646	-0.30%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1309	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086369	-0.39%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1546	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.083314	-0.17%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0813	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.082074	-0.83%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1592	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.084072	-0.93%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1542	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084247	-0.83%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.2023	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.084033	-0.73%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1487	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083924	-0.63%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1799	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.