TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s3
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +7d
assessed
20
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
70.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4320
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0035
actual -0.4158
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001754 | -2.04% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001652 | -1.48% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001586 | -0.70% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001233 | +1.67% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001333 | +1.66% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.00136 | +1.89% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001471 | +1.69% | – | pending | – | – | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001533 | +1.86% | 0.001791 | +19.00% | 0.1418 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.00159 | +1.72% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.0554 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001769 | +1.56% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.1036 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002233 | -0.03% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5903 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002294 | +0.19% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5408 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002703 | -0.71% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6926 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.00227 | +1.03% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4556 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.00258 | +0.24% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.5183 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002283 | +0.91% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3498 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002431 | +0.71% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2855 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.00307 | -0.51% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2848 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003142 | -0.46% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2945 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003926 | -1.24% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3427 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003719 | -1.14% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4660 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003798 | -1.25% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3857 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.00389 | -1.38% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5645 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.004931 | -1.78% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7414 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005453 | -1.90% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5933 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006118 | -2.12% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6658 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.00698 | -2.55% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5680 | ✓ | 1.00 |