TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s3
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 81
Track record at +1d
assessed
26
of 27 predictions shown
direction hit
50.0%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1128
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
+0.0002
actual -0.0511
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001791 | 0.001784 | -0.38% | – | pending | – | – | -1.74 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001673 | -0.25% | 0.001791 | +6.80% | 0.0633 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001596 | -0.08% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0737 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001217 | +0.34% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2681 | ✓ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001315 | +0.34% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0683 | ✗ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.00134 | +0.37% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0242 | ✗ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001452 | +0.34% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0764 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.00151 | +0.36% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0497 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001568 | +0.35% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0226 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001748 | +0.33% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1282 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002236 | +0.07% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2261 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002292 | +0.11% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0349 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.00272 | -0.07% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1767 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002252 | +0.24% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1790 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002577 | +0.11% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1178 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002267 | +0.22% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1538 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002419 | +0.20% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0646 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003085 | -0.03% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2365 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003156 | -0.01% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0429 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003967 | -0.20% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2315 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003756 | -0.17% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0608 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003839 | -0.18% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0356 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003936 | -0.21% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0221 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.005005 | -0.32% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2404 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005539 | -0.36% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0863 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006225 | -0.42% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1136 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007123 | -0.55% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1345 | ✓ | 1.00 |