BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s3

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

49.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1431

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0391

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.04958	-2.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048881	-2.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046281	-2.29%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.047682	-2.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051514	-2.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054269	-3.09%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043935	-1.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043317	-1.14%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1482	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047052	-1.70%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0649	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053489	-2.23%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1226	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.064234	-3.02%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2611	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.065867	-3.20%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2036	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.066338	-3.19%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1607	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.063995	-2.99%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3647	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065531	-2.90%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.3889	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065485	-2.45%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.2913	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.060883	-2.07%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0708	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061293	-1.80%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.1040	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060439	-2.31%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1360	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.061351	-2.37%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1293	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.063686	-2.36%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0650	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064339	-2.75%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0504	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065103	-2.69%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0170	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065403	-2.66%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0711	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069142	-2.56%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1152	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069259	-2.64%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1149	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.067496	-2.48%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0740	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.065456	-2.14%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0063	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.062447	-1.89%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0628	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.06795	-1.41%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0014	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067345	-1.22%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0232	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.064261	-2.85%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0730	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.063714	-2.74%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0849	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.063379	-2.76%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0639	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.060255	-3.53%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0475	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.059301	-3.45%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0118	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.06084	-3.73%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0719	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.060871	-2.83%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0714	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.060031	-2.91%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0741	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062341	-2.64%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0282	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.06276	-2.31%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0173	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.059375	-2.01%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0516	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061582	-0.56%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0082	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067288	-0.57%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0437	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067664	+0.33%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0710	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.068127	+1.07%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0737	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069584	+1.21%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0657	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069698	+1.52%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0635	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070857	+1.76%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1232	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067854	+0.87%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0980	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067935	+0.70%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0113	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069376	+1.46%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0312	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.068103	+0.39%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0284	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071114	+0.73%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0442	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071705	+0.31%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0557	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.074396	+1.55%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0726	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072872	+0.91%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0690	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069161	+0.22%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0176	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072381	+0.15%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0543	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.072957	-0.67%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0723	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.073463	-1.31%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0480	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.089948	-1.08%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2269	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.080376	-4.51%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1285	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.07657	-5.17%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1202	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.074691	-5.42%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.1770	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.073368	-5.23%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1226	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.073741	-5.44%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1217	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.075521	-5.33%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1252	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.071458	-4.84%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.1186	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.071754	-4.80%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0815	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.072857	-4.81%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0438	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.073008	-4.76%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0672	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.073721	-4.68%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0426	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.070868	-4.30%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.1182	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.073834	-4.38%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0983	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.074505	-4.35%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0293	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.080332	-4.64%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0536	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.076978	-4.39%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0086	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.073581	-4.08%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0469	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.073401	-4.03%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0473	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.072892	-3.92%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0014	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.072306	-3.84%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0438	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.075783	-4.12%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0064	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.076355	-3.97%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.1031	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.076966	-4.03%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0378	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.076234	-3.76%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0043	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.076459	-3.60%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0025	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.083716	-3.82%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.0827	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.081522	-3.62%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0683	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.081399	-3.57%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0192	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.073738	-2.89%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0784	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.081265	-3.54%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0057	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.08233	-3.61%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0149	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.082594	-3.78%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0295	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.08657	-4.08%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0001	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.088234	-4.22%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0363	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.087802	-4.27%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0417	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.087383	-4.33%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1594	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.085499	-4.44%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0292	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.083358	-4.60%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0053	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.089887	-5.11%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.0942	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.096551	-5.51%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.0820	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.093128	-5.27%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0277	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.098216	-5.52%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.0650	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.104511	-6.20%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1441	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.082785	-4.90%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0438	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.080853	-4.92%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0561	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.089931	-5.19%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0739	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.087515	-5.25%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1528	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.087112	-5.33%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.1111	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.089738	-5.50%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.1246	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.094994	-6.16%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.1346	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.11881	-8.98%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.3528	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.093303	-6.88%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.1648	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.077029	-5.19%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1401	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.076066	-5.68%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.1359	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.070755	-5.50%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.2173	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.063424	-5.35%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3672	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.067141	-5.56%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3842	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.078617	-5.76%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.5208	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.093407	-6.11%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.1173	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.089137	-5.42%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0477	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.08844	-5.68%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0470	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.08352	-5.57%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0560	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.091814	-6.15%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.2692	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.08945	-6.17%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.1879	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.073258	-5.83%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1843	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.071811	-5.68%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3728	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.073635	-6.29%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2827	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.067551	-5.59%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3655	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.065353	-5.42%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.3057	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.070345	-6.11%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.3309	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.068801	-5.91%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.3370	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.059872	-4.75%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.2212	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.061397	-5.03%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1625	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.061469	-5.05%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.2022	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.066007	-5.88%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0484	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.062846	-5.35%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0479	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.059438	-4.35%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1982	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.060195	-4.50%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1979	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.066224	-5.60%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0162	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.062049	-4.51%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.1248	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.067568	-5.17%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0856	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.067851	-4.90%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.2018	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.072879	-5.32%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.1199	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.072307	-5.30%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0516	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.059123	-2.90%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2274	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.060386	-2.94%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.3221	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.06044	-2.79%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2282	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.066375	-3.46%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1607	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.06627	-3.26%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1246	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.069586	-3.42%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1441	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.068887	-3.11%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1342	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.080433	-4.25%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2319	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.07393	-3.55%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1358	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.068753	-2.85%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.0901	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.069518	-2.76%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0144	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.068663	-2.52%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0025	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.073507	-3.01%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0045	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.072922	-2.65%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0151	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.083915	-3.46%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0283	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.08563	-3.60%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.0958	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.105436	-4.60%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3822	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.100498	-4.04%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3135	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.094534	-3.79%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2633	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.092815	-3.59%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.1868	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.087113	-3.29%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1440	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.088768	-3.47%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0275	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.085311	-3.11%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0566	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.087526	-3.31%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2364	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.091227	-3.69%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1232	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.094901	-4.10%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0039	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.110563	-5.01%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1531	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.104799	-4.88%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1659	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.106699	-5.05%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1792	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.122526	-5.67%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.3801	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.130204	-5.97%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4219	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.128108	-6.47%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3336	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.125905	-5.91%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2394	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.126534	-6.04%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.0968	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.115734	-5.67%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0591	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.127209	-6.34%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.0985	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.108439	-5.49%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.2124	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.120888	-7.47%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.1362	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.105905	-7.07%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2376	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.081926	-4.96%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4270	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.086593	-5.07%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.4167	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.113818	-7.65%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0703	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.143382	-13.70%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.0948	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.081404	-4.83%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.2992	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.072084	-4.07%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5659	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.06323	-3.76%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5702	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.05719	-3.89%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3678	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.052764	-3.51%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5118	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.051942	-3.55%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8094	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.051622	-3.67%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1231	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.059519	-3.91%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3112	✗	1.00