ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s3

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

62.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2385

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0265

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001344	-2.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001235	-1.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001239	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00113	-1.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001207	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001252	-1.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001235	-1.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001071	-1.13%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2258	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001127	-1.46%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1134	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001114	-1.12%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1237	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.00134	-1.92%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1221	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001332	-1.87%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0486	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001212	-1.45%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0731	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001331	-1.76%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0650	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001417	-1.97%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2341	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001533	-2.01%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2448	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001599	-2.01%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2689	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001607	-1.86%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1032	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001662	-2.11%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1635	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001721	-2.19%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2936	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001844	-2.31%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2424	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001828	-2.47%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2285	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001756	-2.34%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1540	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001664	-2.22%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0654	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001861	-2.32%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1702	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001935	-2.43%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1374	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001967	-2.51%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1206	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002193	-2.88%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1594	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001891	-2.24%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0086	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002119	-1.85%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1103	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001722	-1.25%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0557	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001474	-1.70%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1841	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001747	-2.23%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0584	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.00179	-2.21%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0488	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001585	-1.26%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1806	✗	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001668	-1.40%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0263	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.00166	-0.96%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0598	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001785	-0.96%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1747	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001873	-1.58%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3062	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001816	-0.67%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.0942	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001926	-1.56%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1221	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002001	-1.93%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2167	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002138	-2.20%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.1902	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002188	-2.30%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.1959	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002252	-2.43%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2007	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00247	-3.00%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1718	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002409	-3.03%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2132	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002904	-3.97%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3352	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002986	-3.98%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2646	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002255	-3.04%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0543	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002309	-3.07%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0555	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002545	-3.36%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1096	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002832	-3.90%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1641	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002474	-3.23%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0313	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002057	-2.09%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3450	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002264	-2.39%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2967	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.00212	-2.11%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1294	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001935	-0.11%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2323	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002211	-2.58%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1828	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002289	-3.00%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2539	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002549	-3.44%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0211	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002498	-3.25%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1631	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.00291	-4.66%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4340	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002204	-3.72%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2532	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001881	-3.53%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2995	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001913	-3.69%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1649	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001805	-3.65%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0796	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001879	-3.88%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0104	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001998	-4.28%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1030	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001865	-3.88%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2596	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002107	-4.69%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0677	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001945	-4.21%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0278	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.00169	-3.48%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1463	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001659	-3.38%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1745	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.00154	-3.11%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2880	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001551	-3.13%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3421	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002021	-4.65%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0194	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001913	-4.24%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1740	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002242	-5.89%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0865	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001322	-2.53%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2714	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.00132	-2.51%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2332	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.00152	-3.34%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0079	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001612	-3.79%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0572	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001637	-3.50%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2687	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001678	-3.95%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1581	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001725	-4.30%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3179	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001957	-5.73%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3617	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.00193	-5.10%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3120	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002142	-7.01%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2709	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002136	-7.73%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2149	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001445	-2.49%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1682	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001332	-2.03%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3271	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001515	-2.33%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2418	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001176	-1.87%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6033	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.0012	-1.91%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5130	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001321	-2.04%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5673	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001392	-2.25%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5043	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001027	-1.34%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3378	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001033	-1.29%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2446	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001141	-1.48%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2730	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001041	-0.47%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0774	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001191	-1.20%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0079	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001305	-1.37%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0126	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001139	-0.45%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2283	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001097	+0.38%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0646	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001016	+1.32%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0187	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001147	+0.74%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0213	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001388	-0.32%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2517	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001458	-0.25%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1936	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001535	-0.16%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1608	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001838	-0.90%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5057	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001567	+0.80%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3901	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001822	+0.41%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6452	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001837	+1.03%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5809	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002211	-0.66%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5339	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002264	-0.42%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5151	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002465	-1.03%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5314	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002503	-0.96%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3467	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002314	+0.12%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4300	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002559	-1.01%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3258	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002673	-1.47%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3143	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003032	-2.46%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2501	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003174	-2.98%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2721	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003509	-4.20%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2772	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003639	-4.59%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3096	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004264	-5.43%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5562	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003756	-4.83%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3035	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003593	-4.41%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2191	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003787	-4.69%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1504	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.00341	-4.00%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0065	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003421	-4.06%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0723	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003227	-3.26%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1683	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004053	-5.80%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1202	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002903	-0.60%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2868	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002764	+0.44%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2817	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.00332	-2.34%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1683	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002736	+0.99%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2531	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002591	+2.18%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3223	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002815	+2.01%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1713	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003411	-0.90%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2298	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003767	-2.75%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2807	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003788	-3.17%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3715	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004093	-3.87%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3837	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00445	-4.09%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8167	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004851	-4.50%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0614	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005289	-5.00%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0326	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005073	-4.79%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6814	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005766	-5.35%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7371	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004289	-3.62%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2672	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004891	-3.92%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2829	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004025	-3.08%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1874	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004265	-3.28%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2129	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003945	-2.81%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3725	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003692	-2.20%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4203	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003797	-2.30%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5145	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.00416	-2.76%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0798	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004989	-3.42%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0162	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005221	-3.59%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2232	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005402	-3.71%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1840	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.00542	-3.70%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2424	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005874	-3.75%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3976	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005753	-4.02%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3693	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006041	-4.05%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2978	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005696	-3.65%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0376	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004854	-3.22%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1694	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005819	-3.88%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0044	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006104	-4.07%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0670	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007825	-6.11%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2619	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006337	-3.92%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0289	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004229	-2.93%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4033	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004152	-3.00%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3301	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.