ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s3

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

77.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4494

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0818

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001303	-5.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001205	-4.29%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001207	-4.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001103	-3.99%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001174	-4.48%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001216	-4.77%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.0012	-4.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001042	-3.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001098	-4.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001083	-3.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001301	-4.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001291	-4.88%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001176	-4.42%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001287	-5.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.00137	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001485	-5.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001551	-4.95%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001564	-4.46%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001609	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001663	-5.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001779	-5.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001757	-6.27%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001691	-5.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001604	-5.75%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001795	-5.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001864	-6.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001893	-6.19%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.0021	-7.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.00183	-5.37%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002075	-3.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001696	-2.74%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1265	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001416	-5.60%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1571	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001678	-6.11%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.2972	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001715	-6.32%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4263	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001504	-6.28%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3123	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001582	-6.49%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3300	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001573	-6.16%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3514	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001689	-6.27%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5071	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001785	-6.22%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5649	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001722	-5.79%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5125	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001842	-5.85%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4229	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001911	-6.36%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4683	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002043	-6.53%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.5912	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.00209	-6.68%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5107	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.00215	-6.83%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.4943	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002343	-7.95%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5281	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002285	-8.05%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4742	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002716	-10.21%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6633	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002798	-10.03%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.5804	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002135	-8.21%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3571	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002186	-8.23%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3167	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002404	-8.72%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3562	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002656	-9.88%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5160	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002345	-8.30%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4336	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001988	-5.39%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1843	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.00219	-5.58%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1846	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002062	-4.81%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1257	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001962	+1.30%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0189	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002139	-5.75%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.1991	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002195	-6.98%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1773	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002425	-8.16%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5156	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002394	-7.28%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5248	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.00271	-11.22%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6492	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.00208	-9.11%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4052	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001774	-9.02%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3813	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001799	-9.41%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3369	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001695	-9.50%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3135	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001759	-10.02%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3288	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001858	-10.97%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3033	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001746	-10.00%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2809	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001949	-11.86%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3297	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001813	-10.72%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1948	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001594	-8.99%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0301	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001568	-8.66%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0353	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001462	-7.99%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1284	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001473	-8.01%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2252	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.00187	-11.73%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0656	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001785	-10.64%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1964	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002041	-14.31%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0626	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001265	-6.68%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3303	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001264	-6.66%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3538	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001435	-8.75%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2595	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001511	-9.86%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3398	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001544	-8.94%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2246	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00157	-10.16%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0042	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001604	-11.04%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0356	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001776	-14.46%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1112	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001773	-12.84%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1850	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001909	-17.15%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1518	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001891	-18.34%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0479	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001394	-5.94%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3663	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001299	-4.48%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4033	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001471	-5.14%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5757	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001147	-4.26%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6016	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001169	-4.39%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5114	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001286	-4.64%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4415	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001348	-5.31%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3538	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000998932	-4.04%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6887	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001006	-3.82%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7699	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001113	-3.86%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5911	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001006	-3.80%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7624	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001158	-3.91%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5662	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.00127	-3.99%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3182	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001104	-3.50%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4269	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001058	-3.23%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3722	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000973365	-2.95%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4467	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001106	-2.88%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6326	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001351	-2.93%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3806	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.00142	-2.87%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5090	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001494	-2.81%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1037	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001799	-3.04%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3031	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001513	-2.69%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0162	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001761	-2.97%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1097	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001765	-2.89%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1718	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002152	-3.34%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2775	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.0022	-3.27%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2812	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002401	-3.62%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2153	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002437	-3.57%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2787	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002244	-2.91%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0555	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002494	-3.54%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1264	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002604	-4.00%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6032	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.002917	-6.16%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.7946	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.00302	-7.67%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7169	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003268	-10.79%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0180	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003364	-11.81%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0301	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.003893	-13.66%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.0926	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.00346	-12.33%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.8769	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003337	-11.23%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1268	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003505	-11.80%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.1777	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003187	-10.27%	0.001158	-67.40%	0.9987	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003189	-10.58%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.0711	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003039	-8.92%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9287	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003691	-14.23%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0301	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002748	-5.91%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.8947	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002618	-4.85%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8835	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003108	-8.60%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1278	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002585	-4.59%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8195	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002443	-3.66%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5598	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002656	-3.76%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.5954	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003213	-6.65%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7448	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003518	-9.20%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6552	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003534	-9.67%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.8749	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003811	-10.50%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0212	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00414	-10.78%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3105	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004484	-11.72%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1375	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004849	-12.92%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.1930	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004665	-12.45%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0507	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005272	-13.45%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2233	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.00402	-9.66%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8785	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004577	-10.08%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9983	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003797	-8.57%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1301	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004011	-9.06%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0738	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003709	-8.61%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0507	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003497	-7.37%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2350	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003596	-7.47%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2583	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003927	-8.20%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3377	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004686	-9.27%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004894	-9.63%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.0985	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005057	-9.87%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0767	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005078	-9.77%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1725	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005512	-9.68%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2056	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005366	-10.48%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2539	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005639	-10.43%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0344	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005359	-9.35%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3217	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004596	-8.38%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2259	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005448	-10.01%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2254	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.0057	-10.42%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5074	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007103	-14.77%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7562	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005951	-9.77%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4799	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004011	-7.91%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0844	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003925	-8.31%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2075	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.