UMX

UMX · · lstm_s2

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

83.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0718

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0180

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.040317	-3.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038018	-3.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041569	-3.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053576	-2.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054081	-2.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054524	-2.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057987	-1.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057914	-1.91%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3325	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058357	-1.66%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4031	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058236	-1.99%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3047	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059339	-1.79%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0736	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.058972	-2.05%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0553	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059402	-2.09%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0552	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059749	-1.96%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0066	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059358	-1.94%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0071	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060433	-2.25%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0109	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060958	-1.23%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0139	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061088	-0.98%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0087	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061073	-1.03%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0000	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060131	-2.06%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0179	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.06026	-2.33%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0210	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060187	-2.10%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0219	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059878	-2.46%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0334	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.059838	-2.24%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0214	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059268	-2.22%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0284	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.05958	-1.91%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0242	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059846	-1.99%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0238	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059682	-2.02%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0310	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.05999	-1.93%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0219	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060019	-1.88%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0273	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059927	-1.33%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0377	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060438	-1.20%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0238	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.059995	-2.34%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0096	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059152	-2.16%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0100	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060038	-2.17%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0076	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.06037	-1.28%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0383	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061506	-0.81%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0585	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060435	-0.70%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0615	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059793	-1.20%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0445	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060625	-0.25%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0215	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062065	-0.85%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0587	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064208	-1.29%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0754	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064299	-1.17%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0486	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.063748	-1.72%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0065	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.06518	-1.98%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0396	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066636	-2.10%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0867	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.068581	-1.93%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0810	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.070375	-2.09%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0844	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.07043	-2.28%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0481	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072332	-1.09%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0460	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.072148	-2.82%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1190	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.072392	-2.67%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0984	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.073333	-2.16%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0813	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073927	-2.46%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0894	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.073573	-2.07%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0436	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074747	-2.07%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0598	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.075884	-1.40%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0492	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.080858	-1.60%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0634	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.082264	-1.54%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0863	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.087409	-1.47%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1485	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.085481	-1.43%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1195	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.085488	-1.41%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1443	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.082726	-0.88%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0742	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.079422	-4.03%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1263	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.081235	-4.27%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1199	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083877	-1.26%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1979	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083685	-1.14%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1446	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084343	-0.14%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1849	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.