TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s2
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +7d
assessed
21
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
85.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.4057
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0237
actual -0.3931
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001618 | -4.79% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001603 | -5.04% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.0016 | -4.62% | – | pending | – | – | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001539 | -3.62% | – | pending | – | – | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001176 | -3.08% | – | pending | – | – | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001277 | -2.62% | – | pending | – | – | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001298 | -2.81% | – | pending | – | – | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.001406 | -2.87% | 0.0017 | +17.48% | 0.1650 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001466 | -2.57% | 0.001688 | +12.16% | 0.1111 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001513 | -3.19% | 0.001677 | +7.29% | 0.1048 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001703 | -2.26% | 0.001597 | -8.32% | 0.0652 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002182 | -2.34% | 0.001213 | -45.70% | 0.5669 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002241 | -2.11% | 0.001311 | -42.74% | 0.5176 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002664 | -2.14% | 0.001335 | -50.96% | 0.6781 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002202 | -1.99% | 0.001447 | -35.60% | 0.4253 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002524 | -1.94% | 0.001505 | -41.53% | 0.4964 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002187 | -3.31% | 0.001563 | -30.90% | 0.3071 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.00234 | -3.07% | 0.001742 | -27.84% | 0.2473 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.003029 | -1.84% | 0.002234 | -27.61% | 0.2712 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.0031 | -1.77% | 0.002289 | -27.46% | 0.2813 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003895 | -2.00% | 0.002722 | -31.52% | 0.3349 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003689 | -1.93% | 0.002247 | -40.27% | 0.4580 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003773 | -1.91% | 0.002574 | -33.07% | 0.3789 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.00387 | -1.89% | 0.002262 | -42.65% | 0.5594 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.00493 | -1.81% | 0.002414 | -51.92% | 0.7411 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005451 | -1.94% | 0.003086 | -44.49% | 0.5928 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.006098 | -2.45% | 0.003156 | -49.51% | 0.6625 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.006883 | -3.90% | 0.003975 | -44.51% | 0.5540 | ✓ | 1.00 |