TOLLY
Tolly · Arc · lstm_s2
- token id
- #737
- symbol
- TOLLY
- variant
- –
- chain
- Arc
- address
- 0xbc43ce8dec648ea298c4275559b81d6261c90b67
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-09-16
- predictions
- 84
Track record at +1d
assessed
27
of 28 predictions shown
direction hit
74.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1065
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0049
actual -0.0500
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.0017 | 0.001681 | -1.11% | – | pending | – | – | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.001688 | 0.001668 | -1.21% | 0.0017 | +0.71% | 0.0230 | ✗ | -1.65 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.001677 | 0.001659 | -1.07% | 0.001688 | +0.66% | 0.0394 | ✗ | -1.70 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.001597 | 0.001585 | -0.76% | 0.001677 | +5.01% | 0.0805 | ✗ | -1.80 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.001213 | 0.001206 | -0.57% | 0.001597 | +31.66% | 0.2773 | ✗ | -1.68 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.001311 | 0.001305 | -0.44% | 0.001213 | -7.48% | 0.0605 | ✓ | -1.67 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.001335 | 0.001329 | -0.49% | 0.001311 | -1.80% | 0.0157 | ✓ | -1.66 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.001447 | 0.00144 | -0.50% | 0.001335 | -7.74% | 0.0679 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.001505 | 0.001499 | -0.41% | 0.001447 | -3.85% | 0.0420 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.001563 | 0.001554 | -0.58% | 0.001505 | -3.71% | 0.0133 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.001742 | 0.001736 | -0.32% | 0.001563 | -10.28% | 0.1217 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.002234 | 0.002227 | -0.33% | 0.001742 | -22.02% | 0.2220 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.002289 | 0.002283 | -0.26% | 0.002234 | -2.42% | 0.0311 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.002722 | 0.002715 | -0.27% | 0.002289 | -15.89% | 0.1747 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.002247 | 0.002242 | -0.24% | 0.002722 | +21.14% | 0.1838 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.002574 | 0.002568 | -0.22% | 0.002247 | -12.70% | 0.1145 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.002262 | 0.002249 | -0.59% | 0.002574 | +13.79% | 0.1620 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.002414 | 0.002402 | -0.51% | 0.002262 | -6.30% | 0.0574 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.003086 | 0.00308 | -0.19% | 0.002414 | -21.78% | 0.2349 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.003156 | 0.003151 | -0.17% | 0.003086 | -2.22% | 0.0413 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.003975 | 0.003961 | -0.34% | 0.003156 | -20.60% | 0.2301 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.003762 | 0.003751 | -0.28% | 0.003975 | +5.66% | 0.0619 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.003846 | 0.003835 | -0.29% | 0.003762 | -2.18% | 0.0346 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.003944 | 0.003932 | -0.30% | 0.003846 | -2.48% | 0.0212 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.005021 | 0.005001 | -0.40% | 0.003944 | -21.45% | 0.2396 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.005559 | 0.005533 | -0.46% | 0.005021 | -9.68% | 0.0852 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.006251 | 0.00621 | -0.66% | 0.005559 | -11.07% | 0.1112 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.007163 | 0.007072 | -1.26% | 0.006251 | -12.73% | 0.1273 | ✓ | 1.00 |