BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s2

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

52.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0605

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0018

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050881	+0.04%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.050145	+0.04%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0167	✓	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047397	+0.07%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0448	✓	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048834	-0.00%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0288	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052932	-0.22%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0869	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055764	-0.42%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0487	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044845	+0.55%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2290	✓	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.044107	+0.67%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0050	✓	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047983	+0.25%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0752	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054745	+0.06%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1489	✗	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.06617	-0.10%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1751	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067933	-0.16%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0317	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068381	-0.21%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0079	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065817	-0.22%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0332	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.06733	-0.24%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0078	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.067029	-0.15%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0274	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.062116	-0.09%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0795	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062394	-0.03%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0034	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061781	-0.14%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0062	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062769	-0.11%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0167	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.06516	-0.10%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0331	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066056	-0.16%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0244	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066799	-0.15%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0090	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067107	-0.12%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0047	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070864	-0.13%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0468	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071019	-0.16%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0011	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069168	-0.07%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0261	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066881	-0.01%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0361	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063681	+0.05%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0491	✓	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.069036	+0.16%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0692	✗	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068338	+0.23%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0117	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066131	-0.02%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0120	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065511	+0.00%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0102	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065189	+0.01%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0022	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062425	-0.06%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0104	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061386	-0.06%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0158	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063176	-0.04%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0312	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062593	-0.08%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0235	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061775	-0.09%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0066	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.064035	+0.01%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0325	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064321	+0.12%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0049	✗	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060749	+0.26%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0524	✓	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.062378	+0.72%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0203	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.068311	+0.95%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0970	✗	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.06823	+1.17%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0040	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.06827	+1.28%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0042	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.069685	+1.35%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0367	✗	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.069632	+1.42%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0138	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070594	+1.38%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0169	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.068129	+1.28%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0047	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.068222	+1.12%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0134	✗	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.069092	+1.05%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0174	✗	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.06841	+0.84%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0067	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.071093	+0.70%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0431	✗	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071889	+0.57%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0207	✗	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.07372	+0.63%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0149	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072559	+0.48%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0018	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.069262	+0.37%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0386	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072449	+0.24%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0458	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073513	+0.09%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0256	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074446	+0.01%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0182	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090685	-0.27%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1899	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.084244	+0.08%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0499	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080707	-0.05%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0176	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.07866	-0.40%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0087	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.077052	-0.48%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0230	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077523	-0.59%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0156	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079361	-0.51%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0159	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074898	-0.26%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0626	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.07515	-0.30%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0031	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076336	-0.27%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0128	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076524	-0.18%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0014	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.077198	-0.18%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0027	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073882	-0.23%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0561	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.077018	-0.25%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0386	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077698	-0.25%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0064	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083825	-0.49%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0809	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080221	-0.36%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0529	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076515	-0.25%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0447	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076311	-0.22%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0013	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075685	-0.24%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0108	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.075024	-0.23%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0036	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078707	-0.42%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0450	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.0792	-0.40%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0182	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079892	-0.38%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0131	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.079043	-0.21%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0140	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.079157	-0.20%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0008	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086852	-0.22%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0767	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.08449	-0.11%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0214	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.084356	-0.07%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0010	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.076068	+0.18%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1128	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.084448	+0.24%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0974	✗	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.08572	+0.36%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0135	✗	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.086082	+0.29%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0170	✗	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.090395	+0.16%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0560	✗	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.092274	+0.17%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0208	✗	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091875	+0.17%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0086	✗	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.091508	+0.19%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0005	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089723	+0.28%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0280	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.087641	+0.30%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0241	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094831	+0.11%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1263	✗	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.102287	+0.10%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0537	✗	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.098374	+0.07%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0386	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103863	-0.09%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0497	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.111071	-0.31%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0810	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.087089	+0.04%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2334	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.085045	+0.01%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0377	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094657	-0.20%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0986	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.092121	-0.26%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0234	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091745	-0.30%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0004	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094579	-0.40%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0354	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.10062	-0.60%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0732	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.128089	-1.87%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2635	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.099372	-0.83%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2505	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.081112	-0.16%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2417	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.08043	-0.27%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0001	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074803	-0.10%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0821	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.067036	+0.04%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1116	✓	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.071076	-0.02%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0634	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.083134	-0.34%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1392	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098463	-1.03%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1472	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093582	-0.70%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0764	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093023	-0.80%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0048	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087863	-0.66%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0770	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096655	-1.21%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0982	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.09423	-1.15%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0299	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077415	-0.49%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2324	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075711	-0.56%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0453	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077939	-0.81%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0134	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071344	-0.29%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0881	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068938	-0.23%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0183	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.07453	-0.52%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0897	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072785	-0.46%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0293	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062758	-0.16%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1239	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064523	-0.20%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0228	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064616	-0.19%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0198	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069838	-0.42%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0725	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066128	-0.41%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0263	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.061924	-0.35%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0722	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062829	-0.32%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0282	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069754	-0.56%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.0982	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064766	-0.33%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1231	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070963	-0.40%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0176	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.071073	-0.39%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0375	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076443	-0.69%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0660	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075783	-0.74%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0095	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.061103	+0.35%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2251	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.062465	+0.40%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0130	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062447	+0.44%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0206	✓	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068768	+0.02%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0799	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068591	+0.13%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0016	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.07208	+0.04%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0557	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071221	+0.17%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0062	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083499	-0.60%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1369	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.07659	-0.08%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0915	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.071024	+0.36%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0685	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.0718	+0.43%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0125	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070814	+0.53%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0147	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.076007	+0.29%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0687	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.075041	+0.17%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0204	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086481	-0.50%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1282	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088611	-0.25%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0338	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109688	-0.75%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2057	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.104194	-0.51%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0658	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.09794	-0.33%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0700	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095867	-0.42%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0153	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089939	-0.16%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0652	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091738	-0.24%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0193	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.088057	+0.01%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0541	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090443	-0.09%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0308	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094489	-0.24%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0513	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098579	-0.39%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0511	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115666	-0.62%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1551	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109568	-0.56%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0570	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111781	-0.52%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0305	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.129063	-0.64%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1435	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.13753	-0.68%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0497	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.135957	-0.74%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0319	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.133081	-0.54%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0456	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.133853	-0.61%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0134	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.122003	-0.56%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.0964	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.1348	-0.75%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0837	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.114039	-0.61%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1739	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.128885	-1.35%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1403	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.112343	-1.42%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1446	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085666	-0.62%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2581	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.090657	-0.62%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0248	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.12163	-1.31%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2699	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.158583	-4.55%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2775	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084791	-0.87%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6683	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074643	-0.67%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1274	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.065261	-0.67%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1446	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059035	-0.79%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0561	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054274	-0.75%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1244	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053448	-0.76%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0217	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053206	-0.72%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0045	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061537	-0.65%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1482	✓	1.00