ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s2

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

55.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2462

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0052

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.00136	-1.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001239	-1.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001244	-1.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00113	-1.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.00121	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001254	-1.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001235	-1.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001073	-0.97%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2242	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001127	-1.45%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1133	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001113	-1.17%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1242	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001352	-1.06%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1309	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001339	-1.34%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0539	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001215	-1.24%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0709	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001335	-1.45%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0680	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001428	-1.22%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2416	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001565	+0.06%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2657	✗	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001634	+0.13%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2905	✗	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001641	+0.24%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1244	✗	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001688	-0.56%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1792	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001747	-0.71%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3085	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001873	-0.77%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2581	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001853	-1.13%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2422	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001781	-0.96%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1680	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001688	-0.82%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0797	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001891	-0.73%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1864	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001968	-0.77%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1542	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002001	-0.82%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1378	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002238	-0.89%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1797	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001922	-0.60%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0080	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002153	-0.27%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1262	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001743	-0.07%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0438	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.00149	-0.64%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1733	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001771	-0.90%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0448	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001814	-0.95%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0359	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001626	+1.34%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1546	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001725	+1.97%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0599	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001726	+2.96%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0210	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001821	+1.03%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1946	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001944	+2.18%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3437	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001873	+2.47%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1254	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00199	+1.75%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1551	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002062	+1.04%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2465	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002195	+0.42%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2167	✗	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002248	+0.40%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2231	✗	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002336	+1.20%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2372	✗	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00257	+0.95%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.2117	✗	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002492	+0.30%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2469	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002981	-1.43%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3612	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003071	-1.24%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2928	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002297	-1.26%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0725	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002352	-1.26%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0740	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002601	-1.25%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1312	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002902	-1.53%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1884	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002524	-1.29%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0511	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002088	-0.63%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3301	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002318	-0.05%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2731	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002167	+0.05%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1076	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001948	+0.59%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2253	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002269	-0.06%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1572	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002356	-0.17%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2251	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002628	-0.45%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0517	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002574	-0.29%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1932	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.003016	-1.19%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4697	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.00226	-1.25%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2786	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001919	-1.60%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3193	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001953	-1.65%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1858	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001847	-1.36%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.1031	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001925	-1.56%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0135	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.00205	-1.78%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1288	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001907	-1.68%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2370	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002165	-2.08%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0947	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001991	-1.97%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0509	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001723	-1.58%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1268	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001676	-2.39%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1642	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001551	-2.39%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2805	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001564	-2.28%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3334	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002074	-2.10%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0457	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001954	-2.19%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1528	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002306	-3.17%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.1149	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001335	-1.58%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2617	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001346	-0.62%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2140	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001558	-0.97%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0322	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001655	-1.25%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0833	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001678	-1.07%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2439	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001725	-1.26%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1304	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001778	-1.37%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.2877	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002033	-2.07%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3999	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001999	-1.72%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3470	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002239	-2.80%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.3152	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002235	-3.44%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2603	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001473	-0.59%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1490	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001357	-0.22%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3089	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001543	-0.54%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2236	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001198	-0.02%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.5846	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001222	-0.09%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.4947	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001345	-0.27%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5494	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001415	-0.61%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.4876	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001041	+0.05%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3238	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001047	+0.13%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2303	✓	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001159	+0.08%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2572	✓	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001048	+0.22%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0704	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001205	+0.01%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0042	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001321	-0.13%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0001	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001147	+0.24%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2214	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001099	+0.58%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0665	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001016	+1.26%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0182	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001149	+0.90%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0229	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.0014	+0.56%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2606	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001471	+0.61%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.2022	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001547	+0.64%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1687	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001861	+0.34%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5181	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001572	+1.10%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3931	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001833	+1.00%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6511	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001861	+2.36%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5940	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002238	+0.52%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5457	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002289	+0.67%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5260	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002495	+0.16%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5435	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.00253	+0.11%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3576	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002317	+0.26%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4314	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002589	+0.14%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3373	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002718	+0.17%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3308	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003113	+0.16%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2766	✗	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003273	+0.07%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.3031	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003653	-0.28%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3173	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003795	-0.50%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3517	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004434	-1.67%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5952	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003913	-0.87%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3442	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003735	-0.64%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2578	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003937	-0.94%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1890	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003535	-0.49%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0294	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003543	-0.66%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0375	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.00332	-0.47%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1398	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004202	-2.35%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0842	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002921	+0.01%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2806	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002766	+0.53%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2808	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003384	-0.48%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1494	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002777	+2.51%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2381	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002595	+2.33%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3209	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002819	+2.14%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1701	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003434	-0.22%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2230	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.00385	-0.62%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3024	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003895	-0.43%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3995	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004245	-0.31%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4201	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004616	-0.53%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8533	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.005031	-0.95%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0978	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005485	-1.50%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0689	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005252	-1.43%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.7161	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005945	-2.41%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7677	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004426	-0.55%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2985	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.005002	-1.73%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.3054	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004175	+0.53%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1508	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004399	-0.26%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.1821	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004151	+2.26%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3217	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003845	+1.86%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.3796	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003943	+1.46%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4767	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004293	+0.35%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0483	✓	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005097	-1.32%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0053	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005335	-1.47%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2449	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005524	-1.54%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.2064	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005544	-1.49%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2650	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006021	-1.35%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4223	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005899	-1.59%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3942	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006199	-1.55%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3236	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005837	-1.27%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0619	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004959	-1.13%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1480	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005968	-1.41%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0298	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006258	-1.65%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0919	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.008078	-3.07%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2937	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006465	-1.99%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0489	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004288	-1.55%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3892	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004217	-1.49%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3146	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.