ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s2

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

62.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4956

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0109

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001355	-1.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001236	-1.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001239	-1.87%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001125	-2.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001203	-2.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001249	-2.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001233	-2.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001065	-1.66%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001126	-1.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001108	-1.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001356	-0.74%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001342	-1.13%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001214	-1.27%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001335	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.00143	-1.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001582	+1.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001652	+1.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001662	+1.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001691	-0.44%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001747	-0.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001873	-0.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001852	-1.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001781	-0.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001689	-0.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.00189	-0.77%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001965	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001998	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002233	-1.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001923	-0.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002155	-0.14%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001759	+0.84%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1626	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001488	-0.79%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.2068	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001773	-0.80%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3522	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001815	-0.86%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4830	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001577	-1.77%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3593	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001662	-1.77%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3792	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.00165	-1.54%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3994	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001778	-1.37%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5580	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001874	-1.53%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.6137	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001804	-1.32%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5589	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001931	-1.26%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4704	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002013	-1.35%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.5204	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002168	-0.84%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6502	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002227	-0.58%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5741	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002308	-0.01%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5649	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00256	+0.53%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.6163	✗	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002491	+0.25%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5606	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002984	-1.33%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7576	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.00308	-0.96%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6765	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002296	-1.30%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.4297	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002351	-1.28%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3897	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002605	-1.11%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.4361	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002906	-1.38%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.6062	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002529	-1.09%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.5093	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002101	+0.00%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2398	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.00236	+1.76%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2594	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002208	+1.94%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1941	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001995	+3.01%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0021	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002318	+2.10%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2791	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002404	+1.86%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2682	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002674	+1.29%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.6136	✗	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002632	+1.96%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.6197	✗	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.003013	-1.27%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.7554	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002255	-1.50%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4856	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001914	-1.84%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.4572	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001949	-1.89%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.4167	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.00184	-1.74%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3957	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001918	-1.87%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.4156	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002045	-2.02%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3990	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001902	-1.94%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.3666	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002161	-2.25%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.4332	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001987	-2.15%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2865	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.00172	-1.79%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.1062	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.00167	-2.72%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0277	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001545	-2.77%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.0731	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001558	-2.66%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.1687	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002071	-2.28%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.1673	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001952	-2.32%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1074	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002308	-3.10%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0603	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.00133	-1.92%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.2806	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001341	-0.99%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.2948	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001553	-1.29%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.1810	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.00165	-1.56%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.2517	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001671	-1.46%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.1455	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001719	-1.63%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0949	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001772	-1.73%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0638	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002026	-2.41%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.2430	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001992	-2.04%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.3018	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002231	-3.17%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.3077	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002228	-3.74%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.2124	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001466	-1.06%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3158	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.00135	-0.77%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.3652	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001536	-0.96%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5326	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.00119	-0.64%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.5646	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001214	-0.70%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.4735	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001338	-0.82%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4022	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001409	-1.07%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3099	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001033	-0.72%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.6547	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001039	-0.71%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7381	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001151	-0.63%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.5581	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001038	-0.77%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7314	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001196	-0.73%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5337	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001313	-0.79%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.2854	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001136	-0.68%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.3982	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001086	-0.60%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3454	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001	-0.26%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4194	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001135	-0.32%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6067	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001389	-0.24%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3533	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001459	-0.23%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4821	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001534	-0.22%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1300	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001855	+0.02%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3343	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001554	-0.06%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0104	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001821	+0.33%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1432	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001843	+1.35%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.2145	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002243	+0.75%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.3190	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002305	+1.38%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.3281	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002504	+0.53%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2575	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002542	+0.58%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.3208	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002343	+1.39%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0989	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002596	+0.44%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1668	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002711	-0.09%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6432	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003098	-0.33%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8548	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003257	-0.42%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7925	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003631	-0.88%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.1232	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003773	-1.07%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1450	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004414	-2.11%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.2181	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003888	-1.49%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9935	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00371	-1.32%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.2326	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003912	-1.55%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2876	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003507	-1.27%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0943	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003512	-1.52%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1677	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003286	-1.51%	0.001205	-63.88%	1.0069	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.00418	-2.87%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.1545	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002893	-0.96%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9460	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002732	-0.72%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9260	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003335	-1.90%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1986	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002708	-0.03%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8662	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002554	+0.71%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.6042	✗	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002773	+0.45%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6383	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003397	-1.31%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.8003	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003813	-1.56%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7359	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.00386	-1.33%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9632	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004209	-1.14%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.1207	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004577	-1.35%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.4110	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004994	-1.68%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.2452	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.00545	-2.11%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.3100	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005215	-2.12%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.1622	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005917	-2.87%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.3387	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004347	-2.31%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.9568	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004974	-2.27%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0816	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.00405	-2.48%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1946	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004304	-2.41%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.1444	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.003984	-1.85%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0206	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003706	-1.84%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.1769	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003818	-1.75%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.1982	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004206	-1.69%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.2692	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005072	-1.80%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0736	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005318	-1.80%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1816	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005509	-1.80%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.1624	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005531	-1.72%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.2579	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006005	-1.61%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2913	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005884	-1.84%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.3460	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006183	-1.80%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.1264	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.00582	-1.56%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.4042	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004945	-1.41%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2992	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005951	-1.70%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.3138	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006243	-1.88%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5985	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.008067	-3.20%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.8836	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006466	-1.97%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5629	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004287	-1.59%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0180	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004207	-1.73%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1382	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.