UMX

UMX · · lstm_s1

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +7d

assessed

60

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

83.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0617

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0199

actual -0.0708

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046292	-0.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.04249	-0.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054661	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055135	-0.49%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055614	-0.42%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058776	-0.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058711	-0.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058942	-0.67%	0.0466	-21.47%	0.2390	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058993	-0.72%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3176	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059922	-0.82%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0833	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.05971	-0.82%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0677	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060104	-0.93%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0669	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060318	-1.03%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0160	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059898	-1.04%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0161	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.06111	-1.16%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0220	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061014	-1.14%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0148	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060823	-1.41%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0131	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.060756	-1.55%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0052	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060266	-1.84%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0157	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060522	-1.91%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0167	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060421	-1.72%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0180	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060307	-1.76%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0263	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060251	-1.57%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0145	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059675	-1.55%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0216	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059828	-1.50%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0201	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060114	-1.55%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0193	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059919	-1.64%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0270	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.06014	-1.68%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0194	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060111	-1.73%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0258	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059799	-1.54%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0398	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060208	-1.57%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0276	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060007	-2.33%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0098	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059075	-2.29%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0113	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.059847	-2.48%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0044	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.059668	-2.42%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0266	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.060416	-2.57%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0406	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.059585	-2.09%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0473	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059226	-2.14%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0350	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.059663	-1.83%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0055	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.061236	-2.17%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0452	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.063372	-2.57%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0623	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.063588	-2.26%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0375	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.063501	-2.10%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0027	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.065	-2.25%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0369	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066443	-2.38%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0839	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.068195	-2.48%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0754	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.070004	-2.60%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0792	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.070225	-2.56%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0452	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.071448	-2.30%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0337	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.072208	-2.74%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1199	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.0724	-2.66%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0986	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.07302	-2.57%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0770	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073811	-2.61%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0879	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.073348	-2.37%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0405	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074496	-2.40%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0564	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.075348	-2.09%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0421	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.080048	-2.58%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0533	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.081323	-2.67%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0748	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.086206	-2.82%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1346	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.084267	-2.83%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1052	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.084304	-2.78%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1304	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081596	-2.23%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0605	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.080927	-2.21%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1451	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083037	-2.15%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1418	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083413	-1.81%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1923	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083065	-1.87%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1372	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.082804	-1.96%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1665	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.