BASED

Based · Ethereum · lstm_s1

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

167

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

65.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2440

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0567

actual -0.0910

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050207	-1.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049621	-1.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046725	-1.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048461	-0.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.053066	+0.03%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055927	-0.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.043009	-3.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.041729	-4.76%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046163	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053687	-1.87%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.0656	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067387	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.06794	-0.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065409	-0.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.066978	-0.76%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066683	-0.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061439	-1.18%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.061812	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061221	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062441	-0.63%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.0651	-0.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.066023	-0.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.067082	+0.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.067359	+0.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.071489	+0.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.071539	+0.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069382	+0.24%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.067244	+0.53%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.06408	+0.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.070422	+2.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.069926	+2.56%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.2865	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.066322	+0.27%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2942	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065625	+0.18%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.3309	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065098	-0.13%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2961	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061341	-1.79%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1815	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060072	-2.19%	0.056	-8.82%	0.1093	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.061421	-2.82%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3534	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.061476	-1.87%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3561	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.06014	-2.73%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2610	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062535	-2.34%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1578	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.062681	-2.43%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0195	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.05835	-3.70%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1217	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.060163	-2.85%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.1094	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.066643	-1.52%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0309	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.066547	-1.32%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0127	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067229	-0.26%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0338	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068649	-0.15%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1372	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068752	+0.14%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1436	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.070479	+1.22%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1536	✗	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.064031	-4.82%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.0661	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.064034	-5.09%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0320	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.066121	-3.30%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0259	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.064194	-5.37%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0016	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.068436	-3.07%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.0517	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.069622	-2.60%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0237	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.076643	+4.62%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.1007	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.075027	+3.89%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.1117	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.066816	-3.18%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.0348	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.075635	+4.65%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.2047	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.07604	+3.53%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1541	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.076834	+3.22%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1830	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.095543	+5.07%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3841	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.085106	+1.11%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.3020	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.076251	-5.57%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2294	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.072763	-7.87%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2364	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.071236	-7.99%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2365	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.071601	-8.19%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2270	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.07308	-8.39%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2728	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.068765	-8.42%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2177	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.069015	-8.44%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1845	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.070083	-8.44%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2178	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.070274	-8.33%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2661	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.070945	-8.27%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2821	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.068017	-8.15%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1412	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.070912	-8.16%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.1904	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.07153	-8.17%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2122	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.076599	-9.07%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.2746	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.073699	-8.46%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2321	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.070297	-8.36%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.1820	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.070081	-8.37%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.1822	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.06949	-8.41%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1655	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.068903	-8.37%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1541	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.072253	-8.59%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2007	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.072935	-8.28%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1612	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.073496	-8.35%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1571	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.073082	-7.74%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1370	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.073505	-7.33%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1511	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.080898	-7.06%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2603	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.078292	-7.43%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.1867	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.077727	-7.92%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1556	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.070133	-7.63%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0385	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.07777	-7.69%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0606	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.079289	-7.17%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0059	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.079467	-7.42%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0123	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.084006	-6.92%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0617	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.085931	-6.72%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1005	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.085374	-6.92%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.0771	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.084932	-7.01%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0514	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.083038	-7.19%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.0818	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.080667	-7.68%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0479	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.08742	-7.71%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1519	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.09415	-7.86%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2023	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.090618	-7.82%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.1607	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.09586	-7.79%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.2686	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.102713	-7.81%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.3122	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.079752	-8.39%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.0598	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.077748	-8.58%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0680	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.087789	-7.44%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.0940	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.085731	-7.18%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1177	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.085679	-6.89%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1190	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.088775	-6.51%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.1708	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.095013	-6.14%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2529	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.121954	-6.57%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.4861	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.093315	-6.87%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2521	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.077017	-5.20%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0257	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.077351	-4.09%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0380	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.07385	-1.37%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0174	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065609	-2.09%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2071	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069895	-1.68%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1242	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.077694	-6.86%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0426	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.091118	-8.41%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.2084	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.086467	-8.25%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.0502	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.086098	-8.18%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0453	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.08179	-7.53%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0365	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.089777	-8.24%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0101	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.087269	-8.46%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0299	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076111	-2.17%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.1950	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075005	-1.48%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2258	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076309	-2.88%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.1831	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.070996	-0.77%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2184	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068766	-0.48%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.3532	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073565	-1.81%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3254	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071777	-1.84%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3112	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.06179	-1.70%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.4838	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063588	-1.64%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5405	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063721	-1.57%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3235	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.06856	-2.24%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2151	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.065024	-2.07%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.3361	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.060934	-1.94%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.3821	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.06172	-2.08%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4094	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.067982	-3.09%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.3551	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.062623	-3.63%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.5675	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.066387	-6.82%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8571	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.066526	-6.76%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.6664	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.071365	-7.29%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.3552	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.070718	-7.38%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.3631	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.056815	-6.69%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5117	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.058013	-6.75%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.3918	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.058004	-6.71%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.4924	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.064716	-5.87%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5196	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.064572	-5.73%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.6637	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.06816	-5.40%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5283	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.067054	-5.69%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5332	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.07897	-5.99%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.2771	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.072189	-5.82%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.4798	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.065934	-6.83%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5376	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.066566	-6.89%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3062	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.065159	-7.50%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.2992	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.070488	-7.00%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2441	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.069425	-7.32%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1898	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.081247	-6.53%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0209	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.082317	-7.33%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0497	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.102837	-6.95%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2589	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.097762	-6.65%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.3133	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.091783	-6.59%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.2030	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.088926	-7.63%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1964	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.082616	-8.29%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0491	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.084019	-8.63%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.1032	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.080511	-8.56%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0841	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.082395	-8.98%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1235	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.085687	-9.54%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0593	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.089096	-9.97%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.2035	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.106035	-8.90%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3392	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.099329	-9.85%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.2946	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.100704	-10.38%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2469	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.117933	-9.21%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.4129	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.126653	-8.53%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.6949	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.125566	-8.32%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6620	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.122999	-8.08%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6454	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.124302	-7.70%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.5870	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.113487	-7.50%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.4986	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.127271	-6.29%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.5479	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.107737	-6.10%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3796	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.123206	-5.70%	0.084	-35.71%	0.3986	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.107111	-6.01%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.3556	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.080816	-6.25%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1718	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.086771	-4.88%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.2095	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.116142	-5.77%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.5041	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.147992	-10.93%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.7076	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.081508	-4.71%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.1393	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.072013	-4.17%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.0992	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.063103	-3.95%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.2789	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.055639	-6.50%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5575	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.051077	-6.60%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6063	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.050036	-7.09%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5562	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.049362	-7.89%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5516	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.058009	-6.35%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3196	✗	1.00