ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s1

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

65.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2426

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0127

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001361	-0.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001246	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001251	-0.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00114	-0.70%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001219	-0.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001265	-0.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001248	-0.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001087	+0.31%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2114	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001144	-0.02%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.0988	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001131	+0.41%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1083	✓	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001355	-0.87%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1328	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001348	-0.66%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0609	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001233	+0.27%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0558	✓	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001352	-0.17%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0809	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001434	-0.81%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2458	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001551	-0.83%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2567	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001619	-0.80%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2812	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001625	-0.78%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1142	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001685	-0.78%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1770	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001746	-0.76%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3080	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001874	-0.73%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2584	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001858	-0.83%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2452	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001783	-0.83%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1693	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001687	-0.86%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0792	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001891	-0.71%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1866	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001969	-0.69%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1550	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002004	-0.71%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1389	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002239	-0.84%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1802	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.00192	-0.72%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0069	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002145	-0.60%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1229	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.00173	-0.81%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0512	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001489	-0.70%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1740	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001767	-1.14%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0472	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.00181	-1.14%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0379	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001605	+0.00%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1679	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001688	-0.22%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0382	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.00168	+0.21%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0481	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.00179	-0.67%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1776	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001886	-0.89%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3133	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.00182	-0.46%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.0964	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001936	-1.01%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1276	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002009	-1.56%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2205	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002138	-2.18%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.1904	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002191	-2.17%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.1972	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002256	-2.24%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2026	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002489	-2.22%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1797	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002428	-2.29%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2208	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002935	-2.97%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3455	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003007	-3.31%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2716	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002265	-2.63%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0585	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.00232	-2.60%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0603	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002569	-2.48%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1186	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002849	-3.33%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1699	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002498	-2.31%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0408	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002077	-1.16%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3355	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002283	-1.53%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2880	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.00215	-0.73%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1155	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001948	+0.59%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2254	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002247	-1.03%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1670	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002321	-1.67%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2403	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002578	-2.36%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0323	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002528	-2.11%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1748	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002914	-4.51%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4355	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.00223	-2.60%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2648	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001901	-2.50%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.3102	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001933	-2.66%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1756	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001824	-2.61%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0904	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.0019	-2.81%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0007	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.002023	-3.09%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.1154	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001885	-2.82%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2486	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002133	-3.52%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0799	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001968	-3.11%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0392	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001711	-2.27%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1339	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.00168	-2.18%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.1622	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.00156	-1.80%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.2745	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001571	-1.84%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3289	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002043	-3.58%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0306	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001932	-3.32%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1645	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002263	-4.99%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0959	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001338	-1.30%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.2588	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001336	-1.35%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2213	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001545	-1.77%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0240	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001639	-2.19%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0737	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001657	-2.29%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2563	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001701	-2.61%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1442	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001751	-2.90%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3033	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001989	-4.17%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3782	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001952	-4.01%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3235	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002185	-5.15%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2907	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002185	-5.62%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2375	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001455	-1.85%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1617	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001338	-1.61%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3229	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001517	-2.19%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2403	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.00118	-1.53%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.5998	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001204	-1.59%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5098	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001324	-1.82%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5651	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001395	-2.02%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5019	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.00103	-1.10%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3353	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001033	-1.26%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2444	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001142	-1.39%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2721	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001036	-0.99%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0826	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001191	-1.14%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0073	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001307	-1.21%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0109	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001126	-1.60%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2399	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001069	-2.16%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0390	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000961705	-4.12%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0364	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001105	-3.00%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0165	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.00138	-0.84%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2465	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.00146	-0.14%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1948	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001541	+0.23%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1647	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001863	+0.41%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5189	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001567	+0.78%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3900	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001858	+2.37%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6646	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001882	+3.51%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.6051	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002253	+1.22%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5527	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002311	+1.61%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5353	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002505	+0.57%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5475	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002544	+0.66%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3630	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002368	+2.47%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4531	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.0026	+0.56%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3415	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002709	-0.15%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3276	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003093	-0.47%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2702	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003254	-0.52%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2972	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003639	-0.65%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.3137	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003786	-0.74%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3492	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004458	-1.14%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.6005	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003914	-0.84%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3445	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003728	-0.84%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2558	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003935	-0.98%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1886	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003521	-0.88%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0255	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003534	-0.90%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0399	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.00332	-0.48%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1399	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004234	-1.60%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.0766	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002976	+1.89%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2620	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002834	+3.01%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2564	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003427	+0.80%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1366	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.00281	+3.72%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2264	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002658	+4.80%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.2970	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002892	+4.79%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1444	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003535	+2.70%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.1942	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003908	+0.88%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3174	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003928	+0.42%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.4080	✗	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004215	-1.01%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.4131	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004561	-1.70%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8414	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004975	-2.05%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0867	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.00542	-2.65%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0571	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005194	-2.52%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.7050	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005873	-3.59%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7554	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004362	-1.97%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2841	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004981	-2.14%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.3012	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004105	-1.15%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1677	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004337	-1.66%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.1963	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004056	-0.08%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3448	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003786	+0.30%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.3951	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003894	+0.21%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4891	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004252	-0.60%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0578	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005081	-1.63%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0022	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005322	-1.71%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2425	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.00551	-1.79%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.2038	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005527	-1.79%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2619	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005988	-1.88%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.4169	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005869	-2.08%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3892	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006158	-2.19%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.3170	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005794	-1.99%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0547	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004917	-1.97%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1565	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005918	-2.24%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0214	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006203	-2.52%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0831	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007959	-4.49%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2789	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006422	-2.64%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0422	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004265	-2.10%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3948	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004184	-2.27%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3226	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.