ASTEROID1

? · · lstm_s1

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +30d

assessed

142

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

76.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4773

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0573

actual -0.3442

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.00151	-2.03%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001531	-1.17%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001233	-2.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001234	-2.27%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00111	-3.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001193	-2.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001239	-2.93%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001216	-3.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001019	-5.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001079	-5.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001056	-6.29%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001319	-3.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001302	-4.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.00115	-6.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001286	-5.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001389	-3.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001525	-2.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001598	-2.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001606	-1.93%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001666	-1.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001728	-1.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.00186	-1.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001839	-1.85%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.00176	-2.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001658	-2.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001875	-1.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001956	-1.35%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001995	-1.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002237	-0.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001916	-0.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002161	+0.11%	0.001541	-28.61%	0.2966	✗	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001724	-1.15%	0.001549	-11.18%	0.0519	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001423	-5.12%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1622	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001737	-2.80%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3319	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.00178	-2.78%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4634	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001518	-5.41%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3215	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001604	-5.17%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3439	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001581	-5.65%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3568	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001715	-4.84%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5222	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.00181	-4.89%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5791	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001719	-5.98%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5106	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001841	-5.86%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4228	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001892	-7.28%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4584	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002017	-7.72%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.5784	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002071	-7.54%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5015	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002136	-7.43%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.4878	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002376	-6.67%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5420	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002311	-6.98%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4857	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.0028	-7.41%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6940	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002871	-7.66%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6064	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002137	-8.13%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3580	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002198	-7.72%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3222	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002463	-6.51%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3800	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002725	-7.55%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5416	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002403	-6.01%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4582	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002013	-4.19%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1970	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.00222	-4.27%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1984	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002113	-2.45%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1501	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001943	+0.32%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0286	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.00221	-2.65%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2315	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002262	-4.14%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2074	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.0025	-5.30%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5463	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002475	-4.16%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5579	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.00278	-8.92%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6748	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002151	-6.04%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4385	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001817	-6.80%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.4054	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001845	-7.12%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3619	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001734	-7.43%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3361	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001805	-7.68%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3546	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001921	-7.93%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3368	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001794	-7.50%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.3083	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002028	-8.29%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3694	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001875	-7.69%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.2282	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001642	-6.25%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0597	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001614	-6.00%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0067	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001504	-5.34%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1000	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001515	-5.37%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.1968	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001943	-8.33%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.1034	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001845	-7.65%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.1635	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002145	-9.94%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0128	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001286	-5.13%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3138	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001279	-5.51%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.3415	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001488	-5.40%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2236	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001571	-6.27%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3007	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001589	-6.33%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.1963	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001624	-7.06%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0380	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001665	-7.67%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0015	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001873	-9.79%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1644	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001847	-9.17%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2263	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002062	-10.50%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.2290	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002063	-10.88%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.1353	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.00142	-4.21%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.3481	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001311	-3.62%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.3944	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001482	-4.46%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.5685	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001148	-4.16%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6007	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.00117	-4.30%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5105	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001292	-4.22%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4371	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.00136	-4.46%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3449	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000967003	-7.11%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7212	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000967031	-7.55%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.8095	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001083	-6.50%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6190	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.00095974	-8.25%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.8097	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001124	-6.75%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5962	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001244	-6.01%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3394	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001041	-9.01%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4857	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.000972973	-10.98%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.4557	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000845623	-15.69%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.5874	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.000988029	-13.25%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.7456	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001278	-8.17%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.4362	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001353	-7.46%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.5573	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001429	-7.02%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.0594	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001777	-4.23%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.2908	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001438	-7.52%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0672	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001752	-3.46%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1047	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001776	-2.30%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1779	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002162	-2.88%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2822	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002213	-2.68%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2873	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002423	-2.73%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2246	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002454	-2.89%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2857	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002233	-3.38%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0507	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002496	-3.45%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1273	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.00263	-3.05%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6132	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.00306	-1.54%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8426	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003222	-1.51%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7815	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003622	-1.11%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.1210	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.00377	-1.16%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1441	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004431	-1.73%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.2220	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003896	-1.29%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9955	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003712	-1.25%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.2332	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003924	-1.26%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2906	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003495	-1.61%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0909	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003502	-1.79%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1649	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003278	-1.74%	0.001205	-63.88%	1.0046	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.004205	-2.28%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.1605	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002865	-1.93%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9361	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002701	-1.84%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9147	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003314	-2.54%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1920	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002646	-2.31%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8431	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.00249	-1.82%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5788	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.00271	-1.81%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6155	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003346	-2.80%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7852	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003768	-2.74%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7239	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003794	-3.01%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9461	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004088	-4.00%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0913	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004408	-5.01%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3732	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004798	-5.52%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.2053	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005198	-6.65%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2625	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004991	-6.32%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.1184	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005611	-7.90%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2855	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004175	-6.17%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.9164	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.00484	-4.91%	0.002585	-49.21%	1.0542	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003867	-6.90%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1483	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004109	-6.83%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0980	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00375	-7.62%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0399	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003458	-8.40%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2462	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.00355	-8.64%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2710	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003934	-8.04%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3360	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004892	-5.29%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0374	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005131	-5.24%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1459	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005314	-5.27%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.1264	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005333	-5.24%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.2214	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.0058	-4.96%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2566	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005656	-5.64%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.3065	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005945	-5.57%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0873	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005607	-5.16%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3669	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004716	-5.97%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2518	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005705	-5.76%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2716	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005984	-5.96%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5560	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007617	-8.61%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.8261	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006225	-5.62%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5249	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.003999	-8.18%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0873	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003871	-9.58%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2214	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.